Sunday, 2 August 2015

NBA 2017 MVP race – part 11

(Originally posted on Friday, 3 March 2017)

All the data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

On 2 March 2017 the Golden State Warriors recorded their 11th loss of the season and now there are no teams with less the 11 losses.

With the assumptions described in this post:
http://glen-cook-fan-site.blogspot.com/2016/11/nba-2017-mvp-race-part-1.html ,
according to the data from the games up to 2 March 2017 the current NBA 2017 MVP race list is this:

1. James Harden: 2484.33      (projected team wins: 57)
2. Kevin Durant: 2319.82      (projected team wins: 67)
3. Russell Westbrook: 2178.16      (projected team wins: 47)
4. Stephen Curry: 2055.06      (projected team wins: 67)
5. LeBron James: 1974.54      (projected team wins: 57)
6. Kawhi Leonard: 1923.79      (projected team wins: 64)
7. John Wall: 1712.55      (projected team wins: 50)
8. Isaiah Thomas: 1660.89      (projected team wins: 52)
9. Kyrie Irving: 1488.31      (projected team wins: 57)
10. Klay Thompson: 1443.15      (projected team wins: 67)

The Golden State Warriors lost their second straight game (for the first time this season) and now more people will start to wonder if Kevin Durant hadn't been a strong MVP candidate after all. Thanks to my calculations I have been sure that he had been a strong MVP candidate (until his injury) right from the start of the season.

The season is quite advanced, so I'll give you the CURRENT (not projected) MVP values of the above players:

1. James Harden: 1417.04
2. Kevin Durant: 1287.85
3. Russell Westbrook: 1206.64
4. Stephen Curry: 1140.87
5. LeBron James: 1021.91
6. Kawhi Leonard: 994.89
7. John Wall: 887.18
8. Isaiah Thomas: 926.65
9. Kyrie Irving: 770.27
10. Klay Thompson: 801.17

The values from the second list mean that the players would end the season with these values if they got injured (like Kevin Durant) and wouldn't play a single game for the rest of the regular season AND at the same time their teams would LOSE all of their remaining games. Well, the Golden State Warriors will NOT lose all of their remaining games, so the MVP value of Kevin Durant will be definitely higher, but not that much. Assuming that the Golden State Warriors would still end the season with as many as 65 wins the MVP value of Kevin Durant would be only 1674.21.

You probably wonder why the current MVP value of Isaiah Thomas is bigger than the current MVP value of John Wall, unlike their projected values are. The reason for that is the simple fact that the Boston Celtics played more games than the Washington Wizards and their number of wins together with the players' total statistics are not quite comparable right now. The same goes for Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson.

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