(Originally posted on Monday, 6 January 2020)
I was toying with the NBA stats again and I've found something very interesting. People sometimes analyse how many 40-point games a given player had during his whole career or in a given seasons, but I checked how many such games ended in wins for the player's team. The results were so unexpected that I started to doubt in what order I should arrange my lists.
Let me explain it on an example. Imagine 5 players with different number of 40-point games:
player A: 20 wins in 20 games (100.0%)
player B: 20 wins in 22 games (90.0%)
player C: 18 wins in 22 games (81.8%)
player D: 16 wins in 22 games (72.7%)
player E: 12 wins in 27 games (44.4%)
Obviously the career of player B was more impressive than the career of player A because the player B had the same number of wins, but 2 more 40-point games overall. Another obvious thing is that from the players B, C and D the most impressive career was the acreer of player B then C and then D – they all had the same number of 40-point games, but different number of wins. But who was better from the players A, C, D and E? Player E had the biggest number of 40-point games, but the smallest number of wins.
As always I try not to put too much stress on the number of wins, because some players were drafted by weak teams and some other were lucky to be drafted by good teams. What's worse some rebuilding teams had some big problems, for example an unlucky series of injuries to another very good player on a team, so a very good player from that team spent a significant part of his career on a weak team, which by definition limited the number of wins in his career. For this very reason I decided to find a middle ground between the number of wins and the overall number of 40-point games. Actually it was pretty easy:
(the number of wins + the number of 40-point games overall) / 2
In case of a tie the bigger number of wins is decisive:
player B: 21.0 (20 wins in 22 games)
player A: 20.0 (20 wins in 20 games)
player C: 20.0 (18 wins in 22 games)
player E: 19.5 (12 wins in 27 games)
player D: 19.0 (16 wins in 22 games)
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I analysed only the seasons from the season 1976-77 (the first season after the NBA merged with the ABA and the NBA players’ job became more difficult) up to the season 2018-19 (the last finished season).
Please notice that by “season” I mean regular season and playoffs together, because some players (from relatively weak teams) give all they got in the regular season just to advance to the playoffs and some other players (from very strong teams) “coast” through the regular season and have more high-scoring games in the playoffs (mostly because they play more playoff games than the players from the relatively weak teams). A combination of the regular season and the playoffs seems about right when comparing the number of 40-point games.
Please, notice that 40-point games actually include 50-, 60-, 70- and 80-point games. These other games are so rare that I won't bother singling them out. A 40-point game is very impressive on its own – to score so many points a player has to either:
a) make 12 3-pointers,
b) make 20 2-point shots,
c) make 40 free-throws (it never happened),
c) have a very balanced strong offensive game, for example: 4 3-pointers, 10 2-point shots and 8 free-throws.
Most impressive 40-point-game careers in the seasons (regular season + playoffs) from 1976-77 to 2018-19:
1. Michael Jordan: 179.0 (147 wins in 211 games - 69.7 %)
2. Kobe Bryant: 113.5 (92 wins in 135 games - 68.1 %)
3. LeBron James: 80.5 (70 wins in 91 games - 76.9 %)
4. Allen Iverson: 76.0 (63 wins in 89 games - 70.8 %)
5. James Harden: 74.5 (64 wins in 85 games - 75.3 %)
6. George Gervin: 60.5 (47 wins in 74 games - 63.5 %)
7. Shaquille O'Neal: 56.5 (52 wins in 61 games - 85.2 %)
8. Kevin Durant: 54.5 (43 wins in 66 games - 65.2 %)
9. Dominique Wilkins: 52.5 (44 wins in 61 games - 72.1 %)
10. Larry Bird: 49.0 (46 wins in 52 games - 88.5 %)
11. Adrian Dantley: 46.0 (39 wins in 53 games - 73.6 %)
12. Karl Malone: 43.5 (39 wins in 48 games - 81.3 %)
13. Bernard King: 40.5 (29 wins in 52 games - 55.8 %)
14. Stephen Curry: 40.0 (36 wins in 44 games - 81.8 %)
15. Tracy McGrady: 39.5 (30 wins in 49 games - 61.2 %)
16. Russell Westbrook: 37.0 (24 wins in 50 games – 48.0 %)
17. Dwyane Wade: 35.0 (29 wins in 41 games - 70.7 %)
18. Hakeem Olajuwon: 34.0 (25 wins in 43 games - 58.1 %)
19. Alex English: 32.0 (27 wins in 37 games – 73.0 %)
20. Carmelo Anthony: 31.5 (23 wins in 40 games - 57.5 %)
A very interesting list. The most interesting thing is the fact that there is no Dirk Nowitzki on the list. He is 6th on the all-time scoring list for the regular season and 16th on the all-time scoring list for the playoffs, yet he had surprisingly low number of 40-point games (22 wins in 27 games overall – 81.5%, good enough for the 25th place).
The player with the best win% on the list is Larry Bird and it confirms what I think about wins in general – the players from the best teams overall have the biggest number of wins, which means that even a great player on a weak team won't be able to win many games all by himself. Obvious, isn't it?
Out of curioity I checked how many 40-point games there were overall in the seasons (regular season + playoffs) from 1976-77 to 2018-19. There wer exactly 3029 such games and 2055 of them were wins – 67.8%. To put it into perspective: 67.8% from 82 regular season games equals to 55 wins (rounded down). Most teams would love to have such number of wins every season. So, on average a 40-point-game player is very valuable to his team, but there are very few players who are able to record many such games in one season. So, we've come to my second list.
Most impressive 40-point-game seasons in the seasons (regular season + playoffs) from 1976-77 to 2018-19:
1. Michael Jordan (1986-87): 30.0 (22 wins in 38 games - 57.9 %)
2. James Harden (2018-19): 25.5 (22 wins in 29 games - 75.9 %)
3. Michael Jordan (1989-90): 23.5 (19 wins in 28 games - 67.9 %)
4. Kobe Bryant (2005-06): 23.0 (18 wins in 28 games - 64.3 %)
5. Allen Iverson (2000-01): 20.0 (17 wins in 23 games - 73.9 %)
6. Michael Jordan (1987-88): 18.0 (15 wins in 21 games - 71.4 %)
7. Michael Jordan (1988-89): 17.5 (13 wins in 22 games - 59.1 %)
8. Michael Jordan (1992-93): 17.0 (14 wins in 20 games – 70.0 %)
9-10. Kobe Bryant (2002-03): 16.5 (14 wins in 19 games - 73.7 %)
9-10. Kobe Bryant (2006-07): 16.5 (14 wins in 19 games - 73.7 %)
11. Dominique Wilkins (1987-88): 15.5 (13 wins in 18 games - 72.2 %)
12. Russell Westbrook (2016-17): 15.0 (10 wins in 20 games – 50.0 %)
13. George Gervin (1979-80): 14.5 (10 wins in 19 games - 52.6 %)
14. Stephen Curry (2015-16): 14.0 (14 wins in 14 games – 100.0 %)
15. George Gervin (1981-82): 14.0 (12 wins in 16 games – 75.0 %)
16-17. Michael Jordan (1997-98): 13.5 (13 wins in 14 games - 92.9 %)
16-17. Shaquille O'Neal (1999-00): 13.5 (13 wins in 14 games - 92.9%)
18-19. Michael Jordan (1991-92): 13.0 (11 wins in 15 games - 73.3 %)
18-19. Kevin Durant (2013-14): 13.0 (11 wins in 15 games - 73.3 %)
20. Allen Iverson (2005-06): 12.5 (10 wins in 15 games - 66.7 %)
To me the most interesting thing is the fact that Allen Iverson is at the 5th place. I didn't see that coming, but I forgot that he was the MVP in that season. Well, his MVP value was quite low then, but maybe it was the 17 40-point wins that explained his award. By the way, it was that season when Allen Iverson and Vince Carter combined for 3 50-point games in one playoff series (2 by Iverson and 1 by Carter). That was unique.
I decided to check how the most recent seasons compare to the older seasons. In the 38 seasons (regular season + playoffs) from 1976-77 to 2013-14 there were exactly 2511 40-point games and 1707 of them were wins – 68.0%. In the last 5 whole seasons (regular season + playoffs) from 2014-15 to 2018-19 there were exactly 518 40-point games and 348 of them were wins – 67.2%. So, the win% in the last 5 whole seasons is almost exactly the same as in the previous 38 seasons.
How about the per-season numbers? In the 38 seasons (regular season + playoffs) from 1976-77 to 2013-14 there were 66.1 40-point games per season, but in the last 5 whole seasons (regular season + playoffs) from 2014-15 to 2018-19 there were 103.6 40-point games per season! That's 56.8% MORE! The crucial question is this: “Is it now easier to score or are the current players better that before?”
Most impressive 40-point-game careers in the seasons (regular season + playoffs) from 2014-15 to 2018-19 (the last 5 whole seasons):
1. James Harden: 69.5 (59 wins in 80 games - 73.8 %)
2. Stephen Curry: 35.5 (34 wins in 37 games - 91.9 %)
3. Russell Westbrook: 31.5 (19 wins in 44 games - 43.2 %)
4. Anthony Davis: 26.5 (23 wins in 30 games - 76.7 %)
5. LeBron James: 23.5 (20 wins in 27 games - 74.1 %)
6. Damian Lillard: 19.5 (16 wins in 23 games - 69.6 %)
7. Kevin Durant: 15.5 (11 wins in 20 games – 55.0 %)
8. Klay Thompson: 14.0 (14 wins in 14 games – 100.0 %)
9. Paul George: 12.0 (10 wins in 14 games - 71.4 %)
10. DeMar DeRozan: 11.5 (11 wins in 12 games - 91.7 %)
11. Kyrie Irving: 11.5 (10 wins in 13 games - 76.9 %)
12. Kemba Walker: 10.5 (5 wins in 16 games - 31.3 %)
13. DeMarcus Cousins: 10.0 (8 wins in 12 games - 66.7 %)
14. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 9.0 (6 wins in 12 games – 50.0 %)
15. Bradley Beal: 8.5 (5 wins in 12 games - 41.7 %)
16. Jimmy Butler: 7.0 (6 wins in 8 games – 75.0 %)
17. Isaiah Thomas: 6.5 (6 wins in 7 games - 85.7 %)
18. Lou Williams: 6.5 (5 wins in 8 games - 62.5 %)
19. Devin Booker: 6.0 (3 wins in 9 games - 33.3 %)
20-21. Joel Embiid: 5.5 (5 wins in 6 games - 83.3 %)
20-21. Kawhi Leonard: 5.5 (5 wins in 6 games - 83.3 %)
I think that the list should be satisfying to every NBA fan – everybody can draw his own conclusions and stick to his previous beliefs.
Most impressive 40-point-game seasons in the seasons (regular season + playoffs) from 2014-15 to 2018-19 (the last 5 whole seasons):
1. James Harden (2018-19): 25.5 (22 wins in 29 games - 75.9 %)
2. Russell Westbrook (2016-17): 15.0 (10 wins in 20 games – 50.0 %)
3. Stephen Curry (2015-16): 14.0 (14 wins in 14 games – 100.0 %)
4. James Harden (2017-18): 12.0 (10 wins in 14 games - 71.4 %)
5. James Harden (2014-15): 11.5 (11 wins in 12 games - 91.7 %)
6-7. James Harden (2015-16): 10.5 (9 wins in 12 games – 75.0 %)
6-7. LeBron James (2017-18): 10.5 (9 wins in 12 games – 75.0 %)
8. James Harden (2016-17): 10.0 (7 wins in 13 games - 53.8 %)
9. Anthony Davis (2017-18): 9.0 (9 wins in 9 games – 100.0 %)
10. Stephen Curry (2018-19): 8.0 (7 wins in 9 games - 77.8 %)
11-12. DeMar DeRozan (2016-17): 7.0 (7 wins in 7 games – 100.0 %)
11-12. Paul George (2018-19): 7.0 (7 wins in 7 games – 100.0 %)
13. Anthony Davis (2016-17): 6.5 (5 wins in 8 games - 62.5 %)
14. Anthony Davis (2018-19): 6.0 (5 wins in 7 games - 71.4 %)
15-16. Isaiah Thomas (2016-17): 5.5 (5 wins in 6 games - 83.3 %)
15-16. Stephen Curry (2016-17): 5.5 (5 wins in 6 games - 83.3 %)
17-19. Damian Lillard (2018-19): 5.5 (4 wins in 7 games - 57.1 %)
17-19. Giannis Antetokounmpo (2018-19): 5.5 (4 wins in 7 games - 57.1%)
17-19. Kevin Durant (2018-19): 5.5 (4 wins in 7 games - 57.1 %)
20. Russell Westbrook (2014-15): 5.5 (2 wins in 9 games - 22.2 %)
The case of Giannis Antetokounmpo is interesting – in his MVP season his team had win% of 73.2%, but he himself had win% of only 57.1% in his 40-point games. Does it prove that Giannis Antetokounmpo is not so valuable? Of course not. It means that he as a PURE scorer is not so valuable, but overall he is extremely valuable. Pure scorers are quite rare, but they have to be used in a very careful/thoughtful way.
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