NBA 2021 MVP race – part 2

(Originally posted on Monday, 15 March 2021)

Part 2 ends with games played on Saturday 13 March 2021.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).

Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it.

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:

1. Nikola Jokic:    1886.0    (projected team wins: 42)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    1836.9    (projected team wins: 45)
3. Joel Embiid:    1708.6    (projected team wins: 49)
4. Damian Lillard:    1672.2    (projected team wins: 43)
5. LeBron James:    1657.3    (projected team wins: 47)
6. Donovan Mitchell:    1530.1    (projected team wins: 54)
7. Rudy Gobert:    1504.2    (projected team wins: 54)
8. Luka Doncic:    1418.9    (projected team wins: 39)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1357.7    (projected team wins: 46)
10. Stephen Curry:    1355.6    (projected team wins: 36)
11. Khris Middleton:    1330.6    (projected team wins: 45)
12. Chris Paul:    1305.6    (projected team wins: 49)
13. Kyrie Irving:    1274.4    (projected team wins: 48)
14. Julius Randle:    1257.9    (projected team wins: 37)
15. Devin Booker:    1256.5    (projected team wins: 49)
16. Tobias Harris:    1246.9    (projected team wins: 49)
17. Deandre Ayton:    1209.5    (projected team wins: 49)
18. Jordan Clarkson:    1204.4    (projected team wins: 54)
19. Zach LaVine:    1164.4    (projected team wins: 32)
20. Trae Young:    1124.3    (projected team wins: 34)

Nikola Jokic is the leader of the race! The MVP value of LeBron James dropped significantly because his team's projected record dropped by 10 wins, mostly because Anthony Davis got injured. Yep, the MVP award is actually not quite an individual award.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:

1. Nikola Vucevic:    1035.1    (projected team wins: 25)
2. Jerami Grant:    926.4    (projected team wins: 19)
3. Bradley Beal:    910.6    (projected team wins: 27)
4. Malik Beasley:    849.0    (projected team wins: 15)
5. Zach LaVine:    764.2    (projected team wins: 32)
6. Brandon Ingram:    717.9    (projected team wins: 30)
7. Zion Williamson:    711.3    (projected team wins: 30)
8. De'Aaron Fox:    704.4    (projected team wins: 28)
9. Mason Plumlee:    672.9    (projected team wins: 19)
10. Domantas Sabonis:    657.3    (projected team wins: 33)
11. Stephen Curry:    640.2    (projected team wins: 36)
12. Anthony Edwards:    640.0    (projected team wins: 15)
13. Naz Reid:    636.2    (projected team wins: 15)
14. Trae Young:    628.3    (projected team wins: 34)
15. Russell Westbrook:    621.4    (projected team wins: 27)
16. Karl-Anthony Towns:    617.9    (projected team wins: 15)
17. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    604.5    (projected team wins: 30)
18. Collin Sexton:    598.6    (projected team wins: 27)
19. Harrison Barnes:    572.7    (projected team wins: 28)
20. Malcolm Brogdon:    567.8    (projected team wins: 33)

Currently there are 3 players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Stephen Curry (10th and 11th), Zach LaVine (19th and 5th) and Trae Young (20th and 14th).