NBA 2019 MVP race – part 3

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 27 November 2018)

Part 3 = the end of week 6. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs

Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 6 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:

1. Kevin Durant:    2264.8    (projected team wins: 56)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2158.1    (projected team wins: 57)
3. Joel Embiid:    2105.3    (projected team wins: 52)
4. LeBron James:    1872.9    (projected team wins: 47)
5. Kyle Lowry:    1865.8    (projected team wins: 66)
6. Paul George:    1713.8    (projected team wins: 52)
7. Tobias Harris:    1706.1    (projected team wins: 56)
8. Damian Lillard:    1680.1    (projected team wins: 49)
9. Nikola Jokic:    1600.0    (projected team wins: 53)
10. Blake Griffin:    1597.9    (projected team wins: 48)
11. Marc Gasol:    1591.1    (projected team wins: 52)
12. Pascal Siakam:    1570.7    (projected team wins: 66)
13. Kawhi Leonard:    1565.5    (projected team wins: 66)
14. Khris Middleton:    1547.2    (projected team wins: 57)
15. Serge Ibaka:    1534.8    (projected team wins: 66)
16. Andre Drummond:    1518.1    (projected team wins: 48)
17. Kemba Walker:    1499.6    (projected team wins: 41)
18. Mike Conley:    1406.2    (projected team wins: 52)
19. Montrezl Harrell:    1400.4    (projected team wins: 56)
20. Klay Thompson:    1398.7    (projected team wins: 56)
21. Eric Bledsoe:    1393.7    (projected team wins: 57)
22. Danilo Gallinari:    1380.8    (projected team wins: 56)
23. Anthony Davis:    1363.5    (projected team wins: 39)
24. Jonas Valanciunas:    1354.0    (projected team wins: 66)
25. Ben Simmons:    1351.6    (projected team wins: 52)
26. Nikola Vucevic:    1325.8    (projected team wins: 39)
27. James Harden:    1311.0    (projected team wins: 39)
28. DeMar DeRozan:    1298.3    (projected team wins: 41)
29. Kyrie Irving:    1271.5    (projected team wins: 43)
30. Stephen Curry:    1268.2    (projected team wins: 56)

The race is pretty fierce right now. Kevin Durant 's projected MVP value got much lower because his team's projected number of wins decreased by 8. Giannis Antetokounmpo's MVP value remained roughly the same, but it was enough for him to advance to the second place. The MVP values of Joel Embiid and LeBron James increased meaningfully and they are now 3rd and 4th respectively. Interestingly Tobias Harris is at the 7th place!