NBA 2019 MVP race – part 4

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 11 December 2018)

Part 4 = the end of week 8. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs

Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 8 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:

1. Kevin Durant:    2260.2    (projected team wins: 56)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2108.6    (projected team wins: 57)
3. Joel Embiid:    2052.3    (projected team wins: 56)
4. LeBron James:    2034.3    (projected team wins: 52)
5. Paul George:    1900.6    (projected team wins: 56)
6. Kawhi Leonard:    1751.6    (projected team wins: 62)
7. Nikola Jokic:    1716.5    (projected team wins: 55)
8. Damian Lillard:    1700.1    (projected team wins: 47)
9. Tobias Harris:    1599.8    (projected team wins: 54)
10. Kyle Lowry:    1533.4    (projected team wins: 62)
11. Anthony Davis:    1511.9    (projected team wins: 40)
12. Ben Simmons:    1488.8    (projected team wins: 56)
13. Pascal Siakam:    1478.4    (projected team wins: 62)
14. Stephen Curry:    1441.5    (projected team wins: 56)
15. Kyrie Irving:    1430.7    (projected team wins: 50)
16. Klay Thompson:    1422.5    (projected team wins: 56)
17. Eric Bledsoe:    1418.4    (projected team wins: 57)
18. Danilo Gallinari:    1408.2    (projected team wins: 54)
19. Serge Ibaka:    1402.1    (projected team wins: 62)
20. Kemba Walker:    1371.3    (projected team wins: 41)
21. Blake Griffin:    1369.8    (projected team wins: 43)
22. Khris Middleton:    1360.9    (projected team wins: 57)
23. Steven Adams:    1329.0    (projected team wins: 56)
24. Marc Gasol:    1322.0    (projected team wins: 47)
25. Mike Conley:    1281.6    (projected team wins: 47)
26. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1280.6    (projected team wins: 39)
27. Malcolm Brogdon:    1277.3    (projected team wins: 57)
28. Montrezl Harrell:    1272.6    (projected team wins: 54)
29. Russell Westbrook:    1268.1    (projected team wins: 56)
30. Andre Drummond:    1253.5    (projected team wins: 43)

The race got even more interesting. Kevin Durant 's projected MVP value remained almost exactly the same, the projected MVP values of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid fell down a little and the projected MVP values of LeBron James and Paul George increased significantly. Paul George got into the top 5!