NBA 2019 MVP race – part 5

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 25 December 2018)

Part 5 = the end of week 10. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs

Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 10 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:

1. Kevin Durant:    2226.1    (projected team wins: 55)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2076.3    (projected team wins: 56)
3. Paul George:    1992.3    (projected team wins: 54)
4. Joel Embiid:    1949.9    (projected team wins: 53)
5. LeBron James:    1809.4    (projected team wins: 47)
6. Nikola Jokic:    1792.3    (projected team wins: 56)
7. James Harden:    1687.0    (projected team wins: 44)
8. Damian Lillard:    1678.0    (projected team wins: 47)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1613.6    (projected team wins: 59)
10. Stephen Curry:    1505.6    (projected team wins: 55)
11. Ben Simmons:    1493.6    (projected team wins: 53)
12. Kyrie Irving:    1478.6    (projected team wins: 49)
13. Anthony Davis:    1426.1    (projected team wins: 36)
14. Tobias Harris:    1404.5    (projected team wins: 47)
15. Eric Bledsoe:    1360.2    (projected team wins: 56)
16. Klay Thompson:    1350.4    (projected team wins: 55)
17. Pascal Siakam:    1345.7    (projected team wins: 59)
18. Kyle Lowry:    1344.3    (projected team wins: 59)
19. Kemba Walker:    1321.5    (projected team wins: 41)
20. Steven Adams:    1304.5    (projected team wins: 54)
21. Clint Capela:    1299.8    (projected team wins: 44)
22. Russell Westbrook:    1298.5    (projected team wins: 54)
23. DeMar DeRozan:    1289.2    (projected team wins: 43)
24. Danilo Gallinari:    1286.0    (projected team wins: 47)
25. Khris Middleton:    1271.1    (projected team wins: 56)
26. Blake Griffin:    1266.0    (projected team wins: 40)
27. Serge Ibaka:    1264.1    (projected team wins: 59)
28. Jamal Murray:    1246.5    (projected team wins: 56)
29. Domantas Sabonis:    1194.5    (projected team wins: 53)
30. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1187.2    (projected team wins: 37)

This race is getting ridiculously tight. Kevin Durant is still the leader, but his chances to actually win the MVP award are rather theoretical right now. In the top 5 only Paul George's MVP value increased (he advanced to the 3rd place) and the rest lost some of their MVP values. Outside the top 5 there is Nikola Jokic right behind LeBron James and at the 7th place there is James Harden rapidly catching up with the leaders (mostly because his team have recently won 6 out of 7 games). Finally, Stephen Curry is healthy, so his projected number of missed games is falling and hence his MVP value is increasing. The MVP voting at the end of the season will be really crazy.