NBA 2022 MVP race – part 4

(Originally posted on Sunday, 27 March 2022)

Part 4 ends with games played on 26 March 2022.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:

1. Nikola Jokic:    1957.9    (projected team wins: 48)
2. Devin Booker:    1871.4    (projected team wins: 66)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    1828.8    (projected team wins: 51)
4. Joel Embiid:    1809.8    (projected team wins: 52)
5. Jayson Tatum:    1706.4    (projected team wins: 51)
6. Stephen Curry:    1601.7    (projected team wins: 53)
7. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1545.8    (projected team wins: 47)
8. DeMar DeRozan:    1524.3    (projected team wins: 48)
9. Chris Paul:    1513.7    (projected team wins: 66)
10. Luka Doncic:    1472.8    (projected team wins: 50)
11. Ja Morant:    1464.0    (projected team wins: 57)
12. Mikal Bridges:    1428.8    (projected team wins: 66)
13. Trae Young:    1404.6    (projected team wins: 41)
14. Desmond Bane:    1343.2    (projected team wins: 57)
15. Donovan Mitchell:    1334.2    (projected team wins: 50)
16. Deandre Ayton:    1296.3    (projected team wins: 66)
17. Jaren Jackson Jr.:    1263.4    (projected team wins: 57)
18. Nikola Vucevic:    1243.4    (projected team wins: 48)
19. Rudy Gobert:    1243.0    (projected team wins: 50)
20. Zach LaVine:    1238.2    (projected team wins: 48)

Nikola Jokic is the leader of the race, but I think his team's seed is too low for him to win the MVP award. I think Devin Booker will not win the MVP award over Chris Paul. Giannis Antetokounmpo already has two MVP awards, so it seems that this year belongs to Joel Embiid.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:

1. Christian Wood:    954.0    (projected team wins: 22)
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    877.6    (projected team wins: 23)
3. Saddiq Bey:    846.6    (projected team wins: 22)
4. Dejounte Murray:    810.3    (projected team wins: 33)
5. Franz Wagner:    790.3    (projected team wins: 22)
6. Wendell Carter Jr.:    784.1    (projected team wins: 22)
7. LeBron James:    769.8    (projected team wins: 35)
8. Cole Anthony:    722.0    (projected team wins: 22)
9. Jonas Valanciunas:    690.9    (projected team wins: 34)
10. Cade Cunningham:    665.7    (projected team wins: 22)
11. Harrison Barnes:    663.5    (projected team wins: 30)
12. Trae Young:    650.9    (projected team wins: 41)
13. Jae'Sean Tate:    648.8    (projected team wins: 22)
14. De'Aaron Fox:    648.0    (projected team wins: 30)
15. Julius Randle:    646.4    (projected team wins: 35)
16. Mo Bamba:    631.5    (projected team wins: 22)
17. Russell Westbrook:    604.0    (projected team wins: 35)
18. Jerami Grant:    571.8    (projected team wins: 22)
19. Darius Bazley:    566.8    (projected team wins: 23)
20. Kyle Kuzma:    561.0    (projected team wins: 35)

Currently there is only 1 player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Trae Young (13th and 12th).