(Originally posted on Sunday, 19 July 2020)
The NBA decided that all individual awards, including the MVP award, will be based only on games played prior to the suspension of the 2019-20 season. This fact makes this season very different from the lockout-shortened seasons, because in the lockout-shortened seasons all teams played the same number of games. For the current season this is not true. Because my calculations are based on a reference point of team-wins I HAVE to calculate the final results the same way I did so far – as projections.
By the way the defensive player of the year is “obviously” Rudy Gobert – he stopped every NBA player from scoring any points for several months. :) Just kidding. I don't think it's Rudy's fault, because the epidemic was out of control anyway. I would even say that it was probably for the best of all NBA players and fans – they stayed at home as soon as possible. Good job Rudy! One could say that Rudy was a tool in the hands of God. Maybe a little blunt tool, but still a tool. :)
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
With different number of games played by every team I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team would play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the games played prior to the suspension of the 2019-20 season the final NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2519.4 (projected team wins: 67)
2. LeBron James: 2358.1 (projected team wins: 64)
3. James Harden: 2199.1 (projected team wins: 51)
4. Anthony Davis: 2190.6 (projected team wins: 64)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1818.1 (projected team wins: 54)
6. Khris Middleton: 1686.7 (projected team wins: 67)
7. Kawhi Leonard: 1634.1 (projected team wins: 56)
8. Luka Doncic: 1576.5 (projected team wins: 49)
9. Jayson Tatum: 1575.3 (projected team wins: 55)
10. Pascal Siakam: 1513.1 (projected team wins: 59)
11. Rudy Gobert: 1512.6 (projected team wins: 53)
12. Bam Adebayo: 1492.2 (projected team wins: 52)
13. Donovan Mitchell: 1487.1 (projected team wins: 53)
14. Domantas Sabonis: 1438.2 (projected team wins: 49)
15. Kyle Lowry: 1435.7 (projected team wins: 59)
16. Russell Westbrook: 1434.8 (projected team wins: 51)
17. Chris Paul: 1413.4 (projected team wins: 51)
18. Montrezl Harrell: 1366.2 (projected team wins: 56)
19. Jimmy Butler: 1327.8 (projected team wins: 52)
20. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 1311.3 (projected team wins: 51)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the winner of the race and LeBron James is second. James Harden is 3rd, but Anthony Davis is right behind him.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the games played prior to the suspension of the 2019-20 season the final NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1211.0 (projected team wins: 24)
2. Bradley Beal: 941.5 (projected team wins: 31)
3. Zach LaVine: 891.4 (projected team wins: 28)
4. Kevin Love: 846.9 (projected team wins: 24)
5. Devin Booker: 841.7 (projected team wins: 33)
6. Julius Randle: 839.2 (projected team wins: 26)
7. Damian Lillard: 834.8 (projected team wins: 36)
8. Collin Sexton: 819.7 (projected team wins: 24)
9. Karl-Anthony Towns: 786.0 (projected team wins: 24)
10. Devonte' Graham: 757.4 (projected team wins: 29)
11. John Collins: 733.4 (projected team wins: 24)
12. DeMar DeRozan: 723.2 (projected team wins: 35)
13. Terry Rozier: 704.1 (projected team wins: 29)
14. Hassan Whiteside: 699.5 (projected team wins: 36)
15. Eric Paschall: 665.5 (projected team wins: 19)
16. Brandon Ingram: 658.4 (projected team wins: 36)
17. Christian Wood: 649.5 (projected team wins: 25)
18. Tristan Thompson: 643.4 (projected team wins: 24)
19. CJ McCollum: 622.8 (projected team wins: 36)
20. Marquese Chriss: 615.0 (projected team wins: 19)
There is not a single player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
Showing posts with label 11d – NBA 2020 MVP race. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 11d – NBA 2020 MVP race. Show all posts
Sunday, 2 August 2015
NBA 2020 MVP race – part 6
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 25 February 2020)
Part 6 = the end of week 18. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2689.0 (projected team wins: 70)
2. James Harden: 2344.3 (projected team wins: 53)
3. LeBron James: 2331.8 (projected team wins: 64)
4. Anthony Davis: 2204.3 (projected team wins: 64)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1935.8 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Khris Middleton: 1865.7 (projected team wins: 70)
7. Jayson Tatum: 1601.0 (projected team wins: 57)
8. Luka Doncic: 1574.7 (projected team wins: 49)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1573.4 (projected team wins: 55)
10. Rudy Gobert: 1506.3 (projected team wins: 52)
11. Pascal Siakam: 1506.1 (projected team wins: 60)
12. Bam Adebayo: 1497.6 (projected team wins: 52)
13. Russell Westbrook: 1476.0 (projected team wins: 53)
14. Donovan Mitchell: 1471.9 (projected team wins: 52)
15. Eric Bledsoe: 1410.5 (projected team wins: 70)
16. Kyle Lowry: 1401.3 (projected team wins: 60)
17. Damian Lillard: 1387.8 (projected team wins: 37)
18. Chris Paul: 1378.2 (projected team wins: 50)
19. Ben Simmons: 1376.6 (projected team wins: 51)
20. Kemba Walker: 1368.1 (projected team wins: 57)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear leader of the race. James Harden got back to the second place but his team would have to record a fantastic winning run to allow him to get significantly closer to Antetokounmpo.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1232.3 (projected team wins: 24)
2. Bradley Beal: 963.0 (projected team wins: 29)
3. Zach LaVine: 961.8 (projected team wins: 28)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns: 923.2 (projected team wins: 23)
5. Damian Lillard: 862.7 (projected team wins: 37)
6. Julius Randle: 852.9 (projected team wins: 24)
7. Kevin Love: 835.2 (projected team wins: 23)
8. Devin Booker: 814.1 (projected team wins: 34)
9. Collin Sexton: 794.5 (projected team wins: 23)
10. Devonte' Graham: 790.8 (projected team wins: 28)
11. DeMar DeRozan: 722.5 (projected team wins: 35)
12. Terry Rozier: 717.6 (projected team wins: 28)
13. Tristan Thompson: 714.6 (projected team wins: 23)
14. Brandon Ingram: 663.3 (projected team wins: 36)
15. Buddy Hield: 656.1 (projected team wins: 34)
16. John Collins: 650.0 (projected team wins: 24)
17. Hassan Whiteside: 650.0 (projected team wins: 37)
18. Eric Paschall: 641.8 (projected team wins: 17)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge: 641.2 (projected team wins: 35)
20. Mitchell Robinson: 623.7 (projected team wins: 24)
Look at all these names! What a company! I think it shows that the league is incredibly rich with talent right now.
Currently there is one player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Damian Lillard. Right now he is 17th on the MVP list and 5th on the MFP list.
Part 6 = the end of week 18. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2689.0 (projected team wins: 70)
2. James Harden: 2344.3 (projected team wins: 53)
3. LeBron James: 2331.8 (projected team wins: 64)
4. Anthony Davis: 2204.3 (projected team wins: 64)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1935.8 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Khris Middleton: 1865.7 (projected team wins: 70)
7. Jayson Tatum: 1601.0 (projected team wins: 57)
8. Luka Doncic: 1574.7 (projected team wins: 49)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1573.4 (projected team wins: 55)
10. Rudy Gobert: 1506.3 (projected team wins: 52)
11. Pascal Siakam: 1506.1 (projected team wins: 60)
12. Bam Adebayo: 1497.6 (projected team wins: 52)
13. Russell Westbrook: 1476.0 (projected team wins: 53)
14. Donovan Mitchell: 1471.9 (projected team wins: 52)
15. Eric Bledsoe: 1410.5 (projected team wins: 70)
16. Kyle Lowry: 1401.3 (projected team wins: 60)
17. Damian Lillard: 1387.8 (projected team wins: 37)
18. Chris Paul: 1378.2 (projected team wins: 50)
19. Ben Simmons: 1376.6 (projected team wins: 51)
20. Kemba Walker: 1368.1 (projected team wins: 57)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear leader of the race. James Harden got back to the second place but his team would have to record a fantastic winning run to allow him to get significantly closer to Antetokounmpo.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1232.3 (projected team wins: 24)
2. Bradley Beal: 963.0 (projected team wins: 29)
3. Zach LaVine: 961.8 (projected team wins: 28)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns: 923.2 (projected team wins: 23)
5. Damian Lillard: 862.7 (projected team wins: 37)
6. Julius Randle: 852.9 (projected team wins: 24)
7. Kevin Love: 835.2 (projected team wins: 23)
8. Devin Booker: 814.1 (projected team wins: 34)
9. Collin Sexton: 794.5 (projected team wins: 23)
10. Devonte' Graham: 790.8 (projected team wins: 28)
11. DeMar DeRozan: 722.5 (projected team wins: 35)
12. Terry Rozier: 717.6 (projected team wins: 28)
13. Tristan Thompson: 714.6 (projected team wins: 23)
14. Brandon Ingram: 663.3 (projected team wins: 36)
15. Buddy Hield: 656.1 (projected team wins: 34)
16. John Collins: 650.0 (projected team wins: 24)
17. Hassan Whiteside: 650.0 (projected team wins: 37)
18. Eric Paschall: 641.8 (projected team wins: 17)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge: 641.2 (projected team wins: 35)
20. Mitchell Robinson: 623.7 (projected team wins: 24)
Look at all these names! What a company! I think it shows that the league is incredibly rich with talent right now.
Currently there is one player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Damian Lillard. Right now he is 17th on the MVP list and 5th on the MFP list.
NBA 2020 MVP race – part 5
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 4 February 2020)
Part 5 = the end of week 15. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 15 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2743.6 (projected team wins: 70)
2. LeBron James: 2275.4 (projected team wins: 63)
3. James Harden: 2274.6 (projected team wins: 52)
4. Anthony Davis: 2118.5 (projected team wins: 63)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1859.8 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Luka Doncic: 1774.2 (projected team wins: 51)
7. Khris Middleton: 1751.5 (projected team wins: 70)
8. Bam Adebayo: 1603.9 (projected team wins: 57)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1598.4 (projected team wins: 57)
10. Jimmy Butler: 1586.1 (projected team wins: 57)
11. Rudy Gobert: 1580.9 (projected team wins: 54)
12. Donovan Mitchell: 1548.3 (projected team wins: 54)
13. Damian Lillard: 1496.9 (projected team wins: 38)
14. Jayson Tatum: 1489.8 (projected team wins: 57)
15. Russell Westbrook: 1471.0 (projected team wins: 52)
16. Domantas Sabonis: 1460.1 (projected team wins: 51)
17. Kemba Walker: 1450.0 (projected team wins: 57)
18. Pascal Siakam: 1420.8 (projected team wins: 59)
19. Ben Simmons: 1397.4 (projected team wins: 50)
20. Montrezl Harrell: 1379.6 (projected team wins: 57)
Well, it should be “Race over, man. Race over!”, but I couldn't help myself and I just had to post the famous Hudson's line from my all-time favourite movie Aliens.
Giannis Antetokounmpo will win the MVP award. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have each other, so their chances to win the award are minimal. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo has Khris Middleton, but he (Middleton) has never been considered a superstar, unlike LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Recently James Harden had some VERY weak games. In the last 9 games he still averaged 27.7 PPG, but his overall scoring efficiency was negative. Well, his free-throw scoring efficiency was still positive, but his very low 3P% (0.260), combined with his huge number of 3PA per game (11.1) was heartbreaking. On top of that his team's projected number of wins decreased by 4, so overall his projected MVP value decreased by 409.7 !!! Game over, man. Game over!
Maybe this is the final step that is needed for James Harden to lead his team to the NBA finals (or maybe even to a ring) – he can/should now relax and focus on the playoffs.
There are 3 new players in the top-10 – Khris Middleton, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler. Congratulations!
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 15 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1298.6 (projected team wins: 21)
2. Bradley Beal: 969.5 (projected team wins: 28)
3. Kevin Love: 921.0 (projected team wins: 21)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns: 920.9 (projected team wins: 25)
5. Andre Drummond: 899.1 (projected team wins: 28)
6. Zach LaVine: 894.9 (projected team wins: 30)
7. Damian Lillard: 866.6 (projected team wins: 38)
8. Devonte' Graham: 849.6 (projected team wins: 26)
9. Devin Booker: 848.7 (projected team wins: 33)
10. Alec Burks: 847.1 (projected team wins: 19)
11. Julius Randle: 844.8 (projected team wins: 24)
12. Collin Sexton: 840.0 (projected team wins: 21)
13. Brandon Ingram: 791.7 (projected team wins: 33)
14. Terry Rozier: 790.0 (projected team wins: 26)
15. Andrew Wiggins: 765.6 (projected team wins: 25)
16. D'Angelo Russell: 760.9 (projected team wins: 19)
17. Tristan Thompson: 746.4 (projected team wins: 21)
18. Marcus Morris: 739.0 (projected team wins: 24)
19. Buddy Hield: 719.9 (projected team wins: 31)
20. Glenn Robinson: 706.6 (projected team wins: 19)
Currently there is one player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Damian Lillard. Recently he had a phenomenal series of games, but his team's projected number of games is still quite low, so he is very high on both lists – right now he is 13th on the MVP list and 7th on the MFP list. UNBELIEVABLE!
Part 5 = the end of week 15. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 15 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2743.6 (projected team wins: 70)
2. LeBron James: 2275.4 (projected team wins: 63)
3. James Harden: 2274.6 (projected team wins: 52)
4. Anthony Davis: 2118.5 (projected team wins: 63)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1859.8 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Luka Doncic: 1774.2 (projected team wins: 51)
7. Khris Middleton: 1751.5 (projected team wins: 70)
8. Bam Adebayo: 1603.9 (projected team wins: 57)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1598.4 (projected team wins: 57)
10. Jimmy Butler: 1586.1 (projected team wins: 57)
11. Rudy Gobert: 1580.9 (projected team wins: 54)
12. Donovan Mitchell: 1548.3 (projected team wins: 54)
13. Damian Lillard: 1496.9 (projected team wins: 38)
14. Jayson Tatum: 1489.8 (projected team wins: 57)
15. Russell Westbrook: 1471.0 (projected team wins: 52)
16. Domantas Sabonis: 1460.1 (projected team wins: 51)
17. Kemba Walker: 1450.0 (projected team wins: 57)
18. Pascal Siakam: 1420.8 (projected team wins: 59)
19. Ben Simmons: 1397.4 (projected team wins: 50)
20. Montrezl Harrell: 1379.6 (projected team wins: 57)
Well, it should be “Race over, man. Race over!”, but I couldn't help myself and I just had to post the famous Hudson's line from my all-time favourite movie Aliens.
Giannis Antetokounmpo will win the MVP award. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have each other, so their chances to win the award are minimal. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo has Khris Middleton, but he (Middleton) has never been considered a superstar, unlike LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Recently James Harden had some VERY weak games. In the last 9 games he still averaged 27.7 PPG, but his overall scoring efficiency was negative. Well, his free-throw scoring efficiency was still positive, but his very low 3P% (0.260), combined with his huge number of 3PA per game (11.1) was heartbreaking. On top of that his team's projected number of wins decreased by 4, so overall his projected MVP value decreased by 409.7 !!! Game over, man. Game over!
Maybe this is the final step that is needed for James Harden to lead his team to the NBA finals (or maybe even to a ring) – he can/should now relax and focus on the playoffs.
There are 3 new players in the top-10 – Khris Middleton, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler. Congratulations!
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 15 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1298.6 (projected team wins: 21)
2. Bradley Beal: 969.5 (projected team wins: 28)
3. Kevin Love: 921.0 (projected team wins: 21)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns: 920.9 (projected team wins: 25)
5. Andre Drummond: 899.1 (projected team wins: 28)
6. Zach LaVine: 894.9 (projected team wins: 30)
7. Damian Lillard: 866.6 (projected team wins: 38)
8. Devonte' Graham: 849.6 (projected team wins: 26)
9. Devin Booker: 848.7 (projected team wins: 33)
10. Alec Burks: 847.1 (projected team wins: 19)
11. Julius Randle: 844.8 (projected team wins: 24)
12. Collin Sexton: 840.0 (projected team wins: 21)
13. Brandon Ingram: 791.7 (projected team wins: 33)
14. Terry Rozier: 790.0 (projected team wins: 26)
15. Andrew Wiggins: 765.6 (projected team wins: 25)
16. D'Angelo Russell: 760.9 (projected team wins: 19)
17. Tristan Thompson: 746.4 (projected team wins: 21)
18. Marcus Morris: 739.0 (projected team wins: 24)
19. Buddy Hield: 719.9 (projected team wins: 31)
20. Glenn Robinson: 706.6 (projected team wins: 19)
Currently there is one player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Damian Lillard. Recently he had a phenomenal series of games, but his team's projected number of games is still quite low, so he is very high on both lists – right now he is 13th on the MVP list and 7th on the MFP list. UNBELIEVABLE!
NBA 2020 MVP race – part 4
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 14 January 2020)
Part 4 = the end of week 12. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 12 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2765.8 (projected team wins: 70)
2. James Harden: 2684.3 (projected team wins: 56)
3. LeBron James: 2503.4 (projected team wins: 68)
4. Anthony Davis: 2365.1 (projected team wins: 68)
5. Luka Doncic: 1874.1 (projected team wins: 50)
6. Nikola Jokic: 1836.4 (projected team wins: 57)
7. Jayson Tatum: 1612.0 (projected team wins: 58)
8. Donovan Mitchell: 1608.4 (projected team wins: 57)
9. Bam Adebayo: 1593.3 (projected team wins: 57)
10. Rudy Gobert: 1579.8 (projected team wins: 57)
11. Jimmy Butler: 1579.1 (projected team wins: 57)
12. Khris Middleton: 1564.1 (projected team wins: 70)
13. Kemba Walker: 1511.4 (projected team wins: 58)
14. Russell Westbrook: 1457.4 (projected team wins: 56)
15. Domantas Sabonis: 1412.8 (projected team wins: 51)
16. Kawhi Leonard: 1402.2 (projected team wins: 55)
17. Montrezl Harrell: 1362.9 (projected team wins: 55)
18. Jaylen Brown: 1352.8 (projected team wins: 58)
19. Jamal Murray: 1348.5 (projected team wins: 57)
20. Bojan Bogdanovic: 1342.3 (projected team wins: 57)
James Harden got quite close to Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they both lost some of their value. LeBron James increased his value, overtook Anthony Davis and got significantly closer to the second place. There are also 2 new players in the top-10 – Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. Congratulations!
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 12 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1423.3 (projected team wins: 16)
2. Andre Drummond: 934.2 (projected team wins: 28)
3. Zach LaVine: 930.3 (projected team wins: 28)
4. Damian Lillard: 902.4 (projected team wins: 34)
5. Bradley Beal: 896.1 (projected team wins: 27)
6. Brandon Ingram: 872.1 (projected team wins: 30)
7. Julius Randle: 846.5 (projected team wins: 23)
8. Alec Burks: 836.5 (projected team wins: 18)
9. Devonte' Graham: 820.3 (projected team wins: 29)
10. Kevin Love: 788.3 (projected team wins: 25)
11. Devin Booker: 771.1 (projected team wins: 34)
12. Marcus Morris: 750.3 (projected team wins: 23)
13. Tristan Thompson: 727.0 (projected team wins: 25)
14. Terry Rozier: 723.7 (projected team wins: 29)
15. Hassan Whiteside: 710.9 (projected team wins: 34)
16. Jabari Parker: 708.4 (projected team wins: 16)
17. Buddy Hield: 701.1 (projected team wins: 31)
18. Glenn Robinson: 688.4 (projected team wins: 18)
19. Karl-Anthony Towns: 685.1 (projected team wins: 32)
20. Collin Sexton: 680.6 (projected team wins: 25)
Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
Part 4 = the end of week 12. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 12 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2765.8 (projected team wins: 70)
2. James Harden: 2684.3 (projected team wins: 56)
3. LeBron James: 2503.4 (projected team wins: 68)
4. Anthony Davis: 2365.1 (projected team wins: 68)
5. Luka Doncic: 1874.1 (projected team wins: 50)
6. Nikola Jokic: 1836.4 (projected team wins: 57)
7. Jayson Tatum: 1612.0 (projected team wins: 58)
8. Donovan Mitchell: 1608.4 (projected team wins: 57)
9. Bam Adebayo: 1593.3 (projected team wins: 57)
10. Rudy Gobert: 1579.8 (projected team wins: 57)
11. Jimmy Butler: 1579.1 (projected team wins: 57)
12. Khris Middleton: 1564.1 (projected team wins: 70)
13. Kemba Walker: 1511.4 (projected team wins: 58)
14. Russell Westbrook: 1457.4 (projected team wins: 56)
15. Domantas Sabonis: 1412.8 (projected team wins: 51)
16. Kawhi Leonard: 1402.2 (projected team wins: 55)
17. Montrezl Harrell: 1362.9 (projected team wins: 55)
18. Jaylen Brown: 1352.8 (projected team wins: 58)
19. Jamal Murray: 1348.5 (projected team wins: 57)
20. Bojan Bogdanovic: 1342.3 (projected team wins: 57)
James Harden got quite close to Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they both lost some of their value. LeBron James increased his value, overtook Anthony Davis and got significantly closer to the second place. There are also 2 new players in the top-10 – Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. Congratulations!
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 12 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1423.3 (projected team wins: 16)
2. Andre Drummond: 934.2 (projected team wins: 28)
3. Zach LaVine: 930.3 (projected team wins: 28)
4. Damian Lillard: 902.4 (projected team wins: 34)
5. Bradley Beal: 896.1 (projected team wins: 27)
6. Brandon Ingram: 872.1 (projected team wins: 30)
7. Julius Randle: 846.5 (projected team wins: 23)
8. Alec Burks: 836.5 (projected team wins: 18)
9. Devonte' Graham: 820.3 (projected team wins: 29)
10. Kevin Love: 788.3 (projected team wins: 25)
11. Devin Booker: 771.1 (projected team wins: 34)
12. Marcus Morris: 750.3 (projected team wins: 23)
13. Tristan Thompson: 727.0 (projected team wins: 25)
14. Terry Rozier: 723.7 (projected team wins: 29)
15. Hassan Whiteside: 710.9 (projected team wins: 34)
16. Jabari Parker: 708.4 (projected team wins: 16)
17. Buddy Hield: 701.1 (projected team wins: 31)
18. Glenn Robinson: 688.4 (projected team wins: 18)
19. Karl-Anthony Towns: 685.1 (projected team wins: 32)
20. Collin Sexton: 680.6 (projected team wins: 25)
Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
NBA 2020 MVP race – part 3
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 24 December 2019)
Part 3 = the end of week 9. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 9 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 3030.5 (projected team wins: 71)
2. James Harden: 2834.3 (projected team wins: 57)
3. Anthony Davis: 2481.8 (projected team wins: 66)
4. LeBron James: 2430.9 (projected team wins: 66)
5. Luka Doncic: 1975.6 (projected team wins: 54)
6. Nikola Jokic: 1812.6 (projected team wins: 59)
7. Kemba Walker: 1789.1 (projected team wins: 61)
8. Jayson Tatum: 1702.5 (projected team wins: 61)
9. Bam Adebayo: 1680.4 (projected team wins: 60)
10. Pascal Siakam: 1668.4 (projected team wins: 57)
11. Jimmy Butler: 1616.4 (projected team wins: 60)
12. Joel Embiid: 1579.7 (projected team wins: 56)
13. Russell Westbrook: 1548.1 (projected team wins: 57)
14. Domantas Sabonis: 1542.9 (projected team wins: 56)
15. Tobias Harris: 1502.6 (projected team wins: 56)
16. Jaylen Brown: 1457.4 (projected team wins: 61)
17. Montrezl Harrell: 1432.9 (projected team wins: 56)
18. Donovan Mitchell: 1408.7 (projected team wins: 49)
19. Clint Capela: 1404.9 (projected team wins: 57)
20. Jamal Murray: 1380.0 (projected team wins: 59)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear leader of the race, but James Harden is still hanging on. There is a new player in the top-10 – Bam Adebayo. Congratulations!
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 9 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1534.2 (projected team wins: 16)
2. Bradley Beal: 1202.4 (projected team wins: 25)
3. Brandon Ingram: 1107.2 (projected team wins: 21)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1053.0 (projected team wins: 28)
5. Jrue Holiday: 948.3 (projected team wins: 21)
6. Andre Drummond: 931.2 (projected team wins: 29)
7. Julius Randle: 928.8 (projected team wins: 19)
8. Jabari Parker: 904.0 (projected team wins: 16)
9. Marcus Morris: 877.3 (projected team wins: 19)
10. Devin Booker: 820.2 (projected team wins: 30)
11. Alec Burks: 807.8 (projected team wins: 19)
12. Zach LaVine: 801.8 (projected team wins: 31)
13. Davis Bertans: 799.2 (projected team wins: 25)
14. Andrew Wiggins: 793.5 (projected team wins: 28)
15. Kevin Love: 786.5 (projected team wins: 25)
16. Damian Lillard: 771.6 (projected team wins: 37)
17. J.J. Redick: 767.6 (projected team wins: 21)
18. Devonte' Graham: 747.6 (projected team wins: 32)
19. Tristan Thompson: 723.9 (projected team wins: 25)
20. DeMar DeRozan: 695.6 (projected team wins: 34)
The projected MFP value of Trae Young is insanely high. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins got on the list after their team lost 10 games in a row. And 3 weeks ago Karl-Anthony Towns was 11th on the MVP list!
On a side note: the San Antonio Spurs are just 1 game away from the 8th spot in the Western Conference with a record of just 12 wins in 29 games! Unbelievable!
Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
Part 3 = the end of week 9. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 9 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 3030.5 (projected team wins: 71)
2. James Harden: 2834.3 (projected team wins: 57)
3. Anthony Davis: 2481.8 (projected team wins: 66)
4. LeBron James: 2430.9 (projected team wins: 66)
5. Luka Doncic: 1975.6 (projected team wins: 54)
6. Nikola Jokic: 1812.6 (projected team wins: 59)
7. Kemba Walker: 1789.1 (projected team wins: 61)
8. Jayson Tatum: 1702.5 (projected team wins: 61)
9. Bam Adebayo: 1680.4 (projected team wins: 60)
10. Pascal Siakam: 1668.4 (projected team wins: 57)
11. Jimmy Butler: 1616.4 (projected team wins: 60)
12. Joel Embiid: 1579.7 (projected team wins: 56)
13. Russell Westbrook: 1548.1 (projected team wins: 57)
14. Domantas Sabonis: 1542.9 (projected team wins: 56)
15. Tobias Harris: 1502.6 (projected team wins: 56)
16. Jaylen Brown: 1457.4 (projected team wins: 61)
17. Montrezl Harrell: 1432.9 (projected team wins: 56)
18. Donovan Mitchell: 1408.7 (projected team wins: 49)
19. Clint Capela: 1404.9 (projected team wins: 57)
20. Jamal Murray: 1380.0 (projected team wins: 59)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear leader of the race, but James Harden is still hanging on. There is a new player in the top-10 – Bam Adebayo. Congratulations!
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 9 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1534.2 (projected team wins: 16)
2. Bradley Beal: 1202.4 (projected team wins: 25)
3. Brandon Ingram: 1107.2 (projected team wins: 21)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1053.0 (projected team wins: 28)
5. Jrue Holiday: 948.3 (projected team wins: 21)
6. Andre Drummond: 931.2 (projected team wins: 29)
7. Julius Randle: 928.8 (projected team wins: 19)
8. Jabari Parker: 904.0 (projected team wins: 16)
9. Marcus Morris: 877.3 (projected team wins: 19)
10. Devin Booker: 820.2 (projected team wins: 30)
11. Alec Burks: 807.8 (projected team wins: 19)
12. Zach LaVine: 801.8 (projected team wins: 31)
13. Davis Bertans: 799.2 (projected team wins: 25)
14. Andrew Wiggins: 793.5 (projected team wins: 28)
15. Kevin Love: 786.5 (projected team wins: 25)
16. Damian Lillard: 771.6 (projected team wins: 37)
17. J.J. Redick: 767.6 (projected team wins: 21)
18. Devonte' Graham: 747.6 (projected team wins: 32)
19. Tristan Thompson: 723.9 (projected team wins: 25)
20. DeMar DeRozan: 695.6 (projected team wins: 34)
The projected MFP value of Trae Young is insanely high. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins got on the list after their team lost 10 games in a row. And 3 weeks ago Karl-Anthony Towns was 11th on the MVP list!
On a side note: the San Antonio Spurs are just 1 game away from the 8th spot in the Western Conference with a record of just 12 wins in 29 games! Unbelievable!
Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
NBA 2020 MVP race – part 2
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 3 December 2019)
Part 2 = the end of week 6. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 6 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 3064.2 (projected team wins: 70)
2. James Harden: 2770.6 (projected team wins: 56)
3. LeBron James: 2698.0 (projected team wins: 70)
4. Anthony Davis: 2558.0 (projected team wins: 70)
5. Luka Doncic: 2531.9 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Pascal Siakam: 2184.2 (projected team wins: 65)
7. Fred VanVleet: 1830.3 (projected team wins: 65)
8. Nikola Jokic: 1683.9 (projected team wins: 63)
9. Kemba Walker: 1637.4 (projected team wins: 60)
10. Jayson Tatum: 1601.4 (projected team wins: 60)
11. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1589.0 (projected team wins: 43)
12. Joel Embiid: 1588.5 (projected team wins: 59)
13. Montrezl Harrell: 1572.3 (projected team wins: 59)
14. Eric Bledsoe: 1569.8 (projected team wins: 70)
15. Bam Adebayo: 1554.4 (projected team wins: 60)
16. Lou Williams: 1549.7 (projected team wins: 59)
17. Jamal Murray: 1538.0 (projected team wins: 63)
18. Tobias Harris: 1504.8 (projected team wins: 59)
19. Kawhi Leonard: 1435.0 (projected team wins: 59)
20. Domantas Sabonis: 1421.1 (projected team wins: 53)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear leader of the race. Luka Doncic increased his MVP value significantly and got into the top-5. Interestingly Fred VanVleet is at the 7th place!
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 6 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1331.6 (projected team wins: 20)
2. Bradley Beal: 1161.5 (projected team wins: 27)
3. Marcus Morris: 973.6 (projected team wins: 16)
4. Andre Drummond: 973.3 (projected team wins: 29)
5. Brandon Ingram: 945.9 (projected team wins: 25)
6. Julius Randle: 938.3 (projected team wins: 16)
7. Eric Paschall: 925.4 (projected team wins: 15)
8. Damian Lillard: 920.2 (projected team wins: 33)
9. DeMar DeRozan: 916.2 (projected team wins: 27)
10. Kevin Love: 890.6 (projected team wins: 22)
11. Jabari Parker: 885.1 (projected team wins: 20)
12. Zach LaVine: 870.7 (projected team wins: 27)
13. Tristan Thompson: 856.5 (projected team wins: 22)
14. Jrue Holiday: 853.7 (projected team wins: 25)
15. LaMarcus Aldridge: 841.2 (projected team wins: 27)
16. Thomas Bryant: 776.7 (projected team wins: 27)
17. Alec Burks: 755.4 (projected team wins: 15)
18. Devonte' Graham: 753.0 (projected team wins: 30)
19. Glenn Robinson: 749.9 (projected team wins: 15)
20. Luke Kennard: 735.0 (projected team wins: 29)
It's strange to see DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge on the MFP list. In 2018 DeMar DeRozan was 7th on the MVP list (he was still playing for the Toronto Raptors then) and LaMarcus Aldridge was 18th on the MVP list. In 2019 DeMar DeRozan was 21st on the MVP list (he was already playing for the San Antonie Spurs) and LaMarcus Aldridge was 14th on the MVP list. Now the San Antonio Spurs are projected to win only 27 games, which seems insane. Almost evry player on their roster is playing worse than in the previous season and they lost Davis Bertans in a very unlucky way. Well, DeMar DeRozan is actually playing with better scoring efficiency, but he has less assists – he is no longer responsible for creating so much offense. Or his temmates are simply missing more shots and giving him less assists.
Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
Part 2 = the end of week 6. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 6 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 3064.2 (projected team wins: 70)
2. James Harden: 2770.6 (projected team wins: 56)
3. LeBron James: 2698.0 (projected team wins: 70)
4. Anthony Davis: 2558.0 (projected team wins: 70)
5. Luka Doncic: 2531.9 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Pascal Siakam: 2184.2 (projected team wins: 65)
7. Fred VanVleet: 1830.3 (projected team wins: 65)
8. Nikola Jokic: 1683.9 (projected team wins: 63)
9. Kemba Walker: 1637.4 (projected team wins: 60)
10. Jayson Tatum: 1601.4 (projected team wins: 60)
11. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1589.0 (projected team wins: 43)
12. Joel Embiid: 1588.5 (projected team wins: 59)
13. Montrezl Harrell: 1572.3 (projected team wins: 59)
14. Eric Bledsoe: 1569.8 (projected team wins: 70)
15. Bam Adebayo: 1554.4 (projected team wins: 60)
16. Lou Williams: 1549.7 (projected team wins: 59)
17. Jamal Murray: 1538.0 (projected team wins: 63)
18. Tobias Harris: 1504.8 (projected team wins: 59)
19. Kawhi Leonard: 1435.0 (projected team wins: 59)
20. Domantas Sabonis: 1421.1 (projected team wins: 53)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear leader of the race. Luka Doncic increased his MVP value significantly and got into the top-5. Interestingly Fred VanVleet is at the 7th place!
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 6 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Trae Young: 1331.6 (projected team wins: 20)
2. Bradley Beal: 1161.5 (projected team wins: 27)
3. Marcus Morris: 973.6 (projected team wins: 16)
4. Andre Drummond: 973.3 (projected team wins: 29)
5. Brandon Ingram: 945.9 (projected team wins: 25)
6. Julius Randle: 938.3 (projected team wins: 16)
7. Eric Paschall: 925.4 (projected team wins: 15)
8. Damian Lillard: 920.2 (projected team wins: 33)
9. DeMar DeRozan: 916.2 (projected team wins: 27)
10. Kevin Love: 890.6 (projected team wins: 22)
11. Jabari Parker: 885.1 (projected team wins: 20)
12. Zach LaVine: 870.7 (projected team wins: 27)
13. Tristan Thompson: 856.5 (projected team wins: 22)
14. Jrue Holiday: 853.7 (projected team wins: 25)
15. LaMarcus Aldridge: 841.2 (projected team wins: 27)
16. Thomas Bryant: 776.7 (projected team wins: 27)
17. Alec Burks: 755.4 (projected team wins: 15)
18. Devonte' Graham: 753.0 (projected team wins: 30)
19. Glenn Robinson: 749.9 (projected team wins: 15)
20. Luke Kennard: 735.0 (projected team wins: 29)
It's strange to see DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge on the MFP list. In 2018 DeMar DeRozan was 7th on the MVP list (he was still playing for the Toronto Raptors then) and LaMarcus Aldridge was 18th on the MVP list. In 2019 DeMar DeRozan was 21st on the MVP list (he was already playing for the San Antonie Spurs) and LaMarcus Aldridge was 14th on the MVP list. Now the San Antonio Spurs are projected to win only 27 games, which seems insane. Almost evry player on their roster is playing worse than in the previous season and they lost Davis Bertans in a very unlucky way. Well, DeMar DeRozan is actually playing with better scoring efficiency, but he has less assists – he is no longer responsible for creating so much offense. Or his temmates are simply missing more shots and giving him less assists.
Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
NBA 2020 MVP race – part 1
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 12 November 2019)
Welcome to the new edition of my mathematical predictions of the NBA MVP. This NBA season (2019-20) I will list only top-20 players in the race (instead of top-30) and I will update the list every 3 weeks (instead of every2 weeks). This way the list will be more focused on the best players and there will be bigger changes between the updates, especially towards the end of the season.
Part 1 = the end of week 3. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 3 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2601.8 (projected team wins: 57)
2. James Harden: 2566.9 (projected team wins: 57)
3. Kemba Walker: 2477.0 (projected team wins: 73)
4. Anthony Davis: 2466.9 (projected team wins: 64)
5. LeBron James: 2462.5 (projected team wins: 64)
6. Luka Doncic: 2063.3 (projected team wins: 49)
7. Pascal Siakam: 1982.9 (projected team wins: 57)
8. Gordon Hayward: 1857.8 (projected team wins: 73)
9. Jayson Tatum: 1855.4 (projected team wins: 73)
10. Devin Booker: 1805.3 (projected team wins: 55)
11. Donovan Mitchell: 1743.6 (projected team wins: 57)
12. Nikola Jokic: 1736.8 (projected team wins: 64)
13. Kawhi Leonard: 1629.4 (projected team wins: 57)
14. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1611.8 (projected team wins: 49)
15. Montrezl Harrell: 1563.4 (projected team wins: 57)
16. Malcolm Brogdon: 1540.9 (projected team wins: 49)
17. Russell Westbrook: 1533.9 (projected team wins: 57)
18. Andrew Wiggins: 1501.0 (projected team wins: 49)
19. Clint Capela: 1494.7 (projected team wins: 57)
20. Tobias Harris: 1490.2 (projected team wins: 55)
Wow! The very first list is already extremely interesting. Kemba Walker and Anthony Davis are 3rd and 4th respectively, but they play on much better teams right now, so it's not really surprising. On the other hand there are some players who ended up on the list with clearly weaker teams (Devin Booker and Malcolm Brogdon) or who were already doomed by many people (Andrew Wiggins).
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 3 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Brandon Ingram: 1364.0 (projected team wins: 16)
2. Damian Lillard: 1216.0 (projected team wins: 33)
3. Bradley Beal: 1143.5 (projected team wins: 21)
4. Andre Drummond: 1091.1 (projected team wins: 30)
5. D'Angelo Russell: 1077.9 (projected team wins: 15)
6. Marcus Morris: 1012.0 (projected team wins: 16)
7. Thomas Bryant: 988.2 (projected team wins: 21)
8. Kyrie Irving: 982.3 (projected team wins: 36)
9. Nikola Vucevic: 976.6 (projected team wins: 25)
10. Trae Young: 965.3 (projected team wins: 27)
11. Josh Hart: 896.7 (projected team wins: 16)
12. Julius Randle: 863.0 (projected team wins: 16)
13. Eric Paschall: 832.4 (projected team wins: 15)
14. Jonathan Isaac: 807.6 (projected team wins: 25)
15. Zach LaVine: 791.8 (projected team wins: 25)
16. Kevin Love: 769.5 (projected team wins: 36)
17. Luke Kennard: 762.3 (projected team wins: 30)
18. Jrue Holiday: 755.1 (projected team wins: 16)
19. Jabari Parker: 752.1 (projected team wins: 27)
20. Wendell Carter: 738.4 (projected team wins: 25)
Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
Welcome to the new edition of my mathematical predictions of the NBA MVP. This NBA season (2019-20) I will list only top-20 players in the race (instead of top-30) and I will update the list every 3 weeks (instead of every2 weeks). This way the list will be more focused on the best players and there will be bigger changes between the updates, especially towards the end of the season.
Part 1 = the end of week 3. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 3 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2601.8 (projected team wins: 57)
2. James Harden: 2566.9 (projected team wins: 57)
3. Kemba Walker: 2477.0 (projected team wins: 73)
4. Anthony Davis: 2466.9 (projected team wins: 64)
5. LeBron James: 2462.5 (projected team wins: 64)
6. Luka Doncic: 2063.3 (projected team wins: 49)
7. Pascal Siakam: 1982.9 (projected team wins: 57)
8. Gordon Hayward: 1857.8 (projected team wins: 73)
9. Jayson Tatum: 1855.4 (projected team wins: 73)
10. Devin Booker: 1805.3 (projected team wins: 55)
11. Donovan Mitchell: 1743.6 (projected team wins: 57)
12. Nikola Jokic: 1736.8 (projected team wins: 64)
13. Kawhi Leonard: 1629.4 (projected team wins: 57)
14. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1611.8 (projected team wins: 49)
15. Montrezl Harrell: 1563.4 (projected team wins: 57)
16. Malcolm Brogdon: 1540.9 (projected team wins: 49)
17. Russell Westbrook: 1533.9 (projected team wins: 57)
18. Andrew Wiggins: 1501.0 (projected team wins: 49)
19. Clint Capela: 1494.7 (projected team wins: 57)
20. Tobias Harris: 1490.2 (projected team wins: 55)
Wow! The very first list is already extremely interesting. Kemba Walker and Anthony Davis are 3rd and 4th respectively, but they play on much better teams right now, so it's not really surprising. On the other hand there are some players who ended up on the list with clearly weaker teams (Devin Booker and Malcolm Brogdon) or who were already doomed by many people (Andrew Wiggins).
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 3 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:
1. Brandon Ingram: 1364.0 (projected team wins: 16)
2. Damian Lillard: 1216.0 (projected team wins: 33)
3. Bradley Beal: 1143.5 (projected team wins: 21)
4. Andre Drummond: 1091.1 (projected team wins: 30)
5. D'Angelo Russell: 1077.9 (projected team wins: 15)
6. Marcus Morris: 1012.0 (projected team wins: 16)
7. Thomas Bryant: 988.2 (projected team wins: 21)
8. Kyrie Irving: 982.3 (projected team wins: 36)
9. Nikola Vucevic: 976.6 (projected team wins: 25)
10. Trae Young: 965.3 (projected team wins: 27)
11. Josh Hart: 896.7 (projected team wins: 16)
12. Julius Randle: 863.0 (projected team wins: 16)
13. Eric Paschall: 832.4 (projected team wins: 15)
14. Jonathan Isaac: 807.6 (projected team wins: 25)
15. Zach LaVine: 791.8 (projected team wins: 25)
16. Kevin Love: 769.5 (projected team wins: 36)
17. Luke Kennard: 762.3 (projected team wins: 30)
18. Jrue Holiday: 755.1 (projected team wins: 16)
19. Jabari Parker: 752.1 (projected team wins: 27)
20. Wendell Carter: 738.4 (projected team wins: 25)
Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
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