(Originally posted on Friday, 23 July 2021)
I made the present post for the sake of completeness, but the final results are quite similar to the previous part (part 4) that was calculated right before the end of the season. The most important difference is the fact that Damian Lillard finished at the third place.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I had to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).
ATTENTION! This season was different because of the pandemic, so numerous players missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results were skewed, but there was nothing I could do about it.
The final NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 2034.3 (team wins: 47)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1591.6 (team wins: 46)
3. Damian Lillard: 1517.2 (team wins: 42)
4. Rudy Gobert: 1487.7 (team wins: 52)
5. Luka Doncic: 1465.2 (team wins: 42)
6. Stephen Curry: 1446.4 (team wins: 39)
7. Chris Paul: 1409.1 (team wins: 51)
8. Devin Booker: 1394.8 (team wins: 51)
9. Julius Randle: 1386.9 (team wins: 41)
10. Joel Embiid: 1365.6 (team wins: 49)
11. Kyrie Irving: 1322.5 (team wins: 48)
12. Khris Middleton: 1243.4 (team wins: 46)
13. Deandre Ayton: 1233.7 (team wins: 51)
14. Donovan Mitchell: 1228.4 (team wins: 52)
15. Kawhi Leonard: 1208.6 (team wins: 47)
16. Trae Young: 1196.2 (team wins: 41)
17. Tobias Harris: 1192.6 (team wins: 49)
18. Michael Porter Jr.: 1121.2 (team wins: 47)
19. Paul George: 1120.2 (team wins: 47)
20. Mikal Bridges: 1108.1 (team wins: 51)
Nikola Jokic won the race with a huge advantage.
The final NBA 2021 MFP list is this:
1. Karl-Anthony Towns: 764.2 (team wins: 23)
2. Collin Sexton: 704.5 (team wins: 22)
3. Anthony Edwards: 677.4 (team wins: 23)
4. Jerami Grant: 662.5 (team wins: 20)
5. Zion Williamson: 639.5 (team wins: 31)
6. Jae'Sean Tate: 622.1 (team wins: 17)
7. Zach LaVine: 611.0 (team wins: 31)
8. Russell Westbrook: 606.6 (team wins: 34)
9. Christian Wood: 603.8 (team wins: 17)
10. Pascal Siakam: 582.1 (team wins: 27)
11. Bradley Beal: 574.9 (team wins: 34)
12. Brandon Ingram: 565.7 (team wins: 31)
13. Domantas Sabonis: 554.2 (team wins: 34)
14. Saddiq Bey: 553.2 (team wins: 20)
15. De'Aaron Fox: 552.7 (team wins: 31)
16. Mason Plumlee: 545.3 (team wins: 20)
17. Fred VanVleet: 537.8 (team wins: 27)
18. Terry Rozier: 524.2 (team wins: 33)
19. Jayson Tatum: 521.1 (team wins: 36)
20. Stephen Curry: 519.2 (team wins: 39)
There was 1 player who was in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Stephen Curry (6th and 20th).
Showing posts with label 11e – NBA 2021 MVP race. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 11e – NBA 2021 MVP race. Show all posts
Sunday, 2 August 2015
NBA 2021 MVP race – part 4
(Originally posted on Sunday, 9 May 2021)
Part 4 ends with games played on Saturday 8 May 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).
Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it. HOWEVER this time I made also calculation for the per-game values (the second list below), which ignores the number of games played. It's definitely NOT correct because a player who have played in only 10 games can have a higher per-game value than his teammate who played in ALL games.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 2043.0 (projected team wins: 47)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1598.1 (projected team wins: 46)
3. Rudy Gobert: 1513.3 (projected team wins: 53)
4. Luka Doncic: 1488.9 (projected team wins: 42)
5. Damian Lillard: 1460.3 (projected team wins: 41)
6. Joel Embiid: 1459.8 (projected team wins: 50)
7. Devin Booker: 1444.2 (projected team wins: 52)
8. Chris Paul: 1443.2 (projected team wins: 52)
9. Stephen Curry: 1389.5 (projected team wins: 37)
10. Julius Randle: 1355.8 (projected team wins: 40)
11. Deandre Ayton: 1325.9 (projected team wins: 52)
12. Donovan Mitchell: 1325.7 (projected team wins: 53)
13. Kyrie Irving: 1313.1 (projected team wins: 47)
14. Khris Middleton: 1262.1 (projected team wins: 46)
15. Kawhi Leonard: 1259.5 (projected team wins: 48)
16. Tobias Harris: 1236.6 (projected team wins: 50)
17. Paul George: 1183.7 (projected team wins: 48)
18. Jayson Tatum: 1163.0 (projected team wins: 38)
19. Michael Porter Jr.: 1144.1 (projected team wins: 47)
20. Trae Young: 1132.5 (projected team wins: 39)
Nikola Jokic is the CLEAR leader of the race! Giannis Antetokounmpo is second and Rudy Gobert is third (!) but they are too much behind in the race to be seriously considered contenders.
Just out of curiosity I made calculation for the per-game values, but, as always, I took into account teams' records (in exactly the same way as for the total values):
1. Nikola Jokic: 28.4 (raw per-game value: 32.0 in 68 games)
2. Joel Embiid: 28.1 (raw per-game value: 29.8 in 49 games)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 26.1 (raw per-game value: 30.1 in 57 games)
4. Kevin Durant: 25.8 (raw per-game value: 29.0 in 31 games)
5. Kyrie Irving: 24.3 (raw per-game value: 27.4 in 51 games)
6. Kawhi Leonard: 23.9 (raw per-game value: 26.4 in 49 games)
7. Donovan Mitchell: 23.6 (raw per-game value: 23.6 in 53 games)
8. Luka Doncic: 22.7 (raw per-game value: 28.7 in 61 games)
9. Damian Lillard: 21.9 (raw per-game value: 28.3 in 63 games)
10. Stephen Curry: 21.9 (raw per-game value: 31.3 in 60 games)
11. Paul George: 21.6 (raw per-game value: 23.8 in 51 games)
12. Devin Booker: 21.3 (raw per-game value: 21.7 in 63 games)
13. Rudy Gobert: 21.3 (raw per-game value: 21.3 in 67 games)
14. Chris Paul: 20.3 (raw per-game value: 20.7 in 66 games)
15. LeBron James: 19.9 (raw per-game value: 26.4 in 43 games)
16. Tobias Harris: 19.8 (raw per-game value: 21.0 in 59 games)
17. Julius Randle: 19.1 (raw per-game value: 25.3 in 66 games)
18. Michael Porter Jr.: 18.6 (raw per-game value: 21.0 in 58 games)
19. Jimmy Butler: 18.5 (raw per-game value: 25.1 in 49 games)
20. Jamal Murray: 18.4 (raw per-game value: 20.8 in 48 games)
Clearly this is a wrong way to analyse the MVP race because Kevin Durant is 4th even though he has played in relatively few games, so his team's record is not really his achievement. Nevertheless the leader of the race is the same! Nikola Jokic is a double winner!
“Who's the winner of the MVP race?”
“Mr Jokic, we cannot ignore you anymore, so please tell us what you think about the MVP race.”
“Who is ice-cold?”
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:
1. Karl-Anthony Towns: 792.1 (projected team wins: 21)
2. Anthony Edwards: 698.6 (projected team wins: 21)
3. Jerami Grant: 680.2 (projected team wins: 21)
4. Collin Sexton: 673.3 (projected team wins: 23)
5. Zion Williamson: 656.0 (projected team wins: 32)
6. Zach LaVine: 645.8 (projected team wins: 30)
7. Christian Wood: 639.3 (projected team wins: 17)
8. Jae'Sean Tate: 618.8 (projected team wins: 17)
9. Bradley Beal: 602.5 (projected team wins: 34)
10. Stephen Curry: 600.9 (projected team wins: 37)
11. De'Aaron Fox: 593.9 (projected team wins: 31)
12. Russell Westbrook: 588.3 (projected team wins: 34)
13. Domantas Sabonis: 580.6 (projected team wins: 33)
14. Brandon Ingram: 580.3 (projected team wins: 32)
15. Pascal Siakam: 568.9 (projected team wins: 29)
16. Mason Plumlee: 559.9 (projected team wins: 21)
17. Saddiq Bey: 527.3 (projected team wins: 21)
18. Fred VanVleet: 525.7 (projected team wins: 29)
19. Darius Garland: 522.1 (projected team wins: 23)
20. John Wall: 507.3 (projected team wins: 17)
Currently there is 1 player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Stephen Curry (9th and 10th).
Part 4 ends with games played on Saturday 8 May 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).
Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it. HOWEVER this time I made also calculation for the per-game values (the second list below), which ignores the number of games played. It's definitely NOT correct because a player who have played in only 10 games can have a higher per-game value than his teammate who played in ALL games.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 2043.0 (projected team wins: 47)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1598.1 (projected team wins: 46)
3. Rudy Gobert: 1513.3 (projected team wins: 53)
4. Luka Doncic: 1488.9 (projected team wins: 42)
5. Damian Lillard: 1460.3 (projected team wins: 41)
6. Joel Embiid: 1459.8 (projected team wins: 50)
7. Devin Booker: 1444.2 (projected team wins: 52)
8. Chris Paul: 1443.2 (projected team wins: 52)
9. Stephen Curry: 1389.5 (projected team wins: 37)
10. Julius Randle: 1355.8 (projected team wins: 40)
11. Deandre Ayton: 1325.9 (projected team wins: 52)
12. Donovan Mitchell: 1325.7 (projected team wins: 53)
13. Kyrie Irving: 1313.1 (projected team wins: 47)
14. Khris Middleton: 1262.1 (projected team wins: 46)
15. Kawhi Leonard: 1259.5 (projected team wins: 48)
16. Tobias Harris: 1236.6 (projected team wins: 50)
17. Paul George: 1183.7 (projected team wins: 48)
18. Jayson Tatum: 1163.0 (projected team wins: 38)
19. Michael Porter Jr.: 1144.1 (projected team wins: 47)
20. Trae Young: 1132.5 (projected team wins: 39)
Nikola Jokic is the CLEAR leader of the race! Giannis Antetokounmpo is second and Rudy Gobert is third (!) but they are too much behind in the race to be seriously considered contenders.
Just out of curiosity I made calculation for the per-game values, but, as always, I took into account teams' records (in exactly the same way as for the total values):
1. Nikola Jokic: 28.4 (raw per-game value: 32.0 in 68 games)
2. Joel Embiid: 28.1 (raw per-game value: 29.8 in 49 games)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 26.1 (raw per-game value: 30.1 in 57 games)
4. Kevin Durant: 25.8 (raw per-game value: 29.0 in 31 games)
5. Kyrie Irving: 24.3 (raw per-game value: 27.4 in 51 games)
6. Kawhi Leonard: 23.9 (raw per-game value: 26.4 in 49 games)
7. Donovan Mitchell: 23.6 (raw per-game value: 23.6 in 53 games)
8. Luka Doncic: 22.7 (raw per-game value: 28.7 in 61 games)
9. Damian Lillard: 21.9 (raw per-game value: 28.3 in 63 games)
10. Stephen Curry: 21.9 (raw per-game value: 31.3 in 60 games)
11. Paul George: 21.6 (raw per-game value: 23.8 in 51 games)
12. Devin Booker: 21.3 (raw per-game value: 21.7 in 63 games)
13. Rudy Gobert: 21.3 (raw per-game value: 21.3 in 67 games)
14. Chris Paul: 20.3 (raw per-game value: 20.7 in 66 games)
15. LeBron James: 19.9 (raw per-game value: 26.4 in 43 games)
16. Tobias Harris: 19.8 (raw per-game value: 21.0 in 59 games)
17. Julius Randle: 19.1 (raw per-game value: 25.3 in 66 games)
18. Michael Porter Jr.: 18.6 (raw per-game value: 21.0 in 58 games)
19. Jimmy Butler: 18.5 (raw per-game value: 25.1 in 49 games)
20. Jamal Murray: 18.4 (raw per-game value: 20.8 in 48 games)
Clearly this is a wrong way to analyse the MVP race because Kevin Durant is 4th even though he has played in relatively few games, so his team's record is not really his achievement. Nevertheless the leader of the race is the same! Nikola Jokic is a double winner!
“Who's the winner of the MVP race?”
“Mr Jokic, we cannot ignore you anymore, so please tell us what you think about the MVP race.”
“Who is ice-cold?”
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:
1. Karl-Anthony Towns: 792.1 (projected team wins: 21)
2. Anthony Edwards: 698.6 (projected team wins: 21)
3. Jerami Grant: 680.2 (projected team wins: 21)
4. Collin Sexton: 673.3 (projected team wins: 23)
5. Zion Williamson: 656.0 (projected team wins: 32)
6. Zach LaVine: 645.8 (projected team wins: 30)
7. Christian Wood: 639.3 (projected team wins: 17)
8. Jae'Sean Tate: 618.8 (projected team wins: 17)
9. Bradley Beal: 602.5 (projected team wins: 34)
10. Stephen Curry: 600.9 (projected team wins: 37)
11. De'Aaron Fox: 593.9 (projected team wins: 31)
12. Russell Westbrook: 588.3 (projected team wins: 34)
13. Domantas Sabonis: 580.6 (projected team wins: 33)
14. Brandon Ingram: 580.3 (projected team wins: 32)
15. Pascal Siakam: 568.9 (projected team wins: 29)
16. Mason Plumlee: 559.9 (projected team wins: 21)
17. Saddiq Bey: 527.3 (projected team wins: 21)
18. Fred VanVleet: 525.7 (projected team wins: 29)
19. Darius Garland: 522.1 (projected team wins: 23)
20. John Wall: 507.3 (projected team wins: 17)
Currently there is 1 player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Stephen Curry (9th and 10th).
This made me laugh
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 20 April 2021; updated on 22 April 2021)
Yesterday (on 19 April 2021) Nikola Jokic scored 47 points (on 18-25 2P, 2-6 3P and 5-6 FT) and he also had 15 rebounds and 8 assists! It was a MONSTER game by Nikola Jokic!
Today (on 20 April 2021) I found this:
It's a screenshot, but the comment was actually a gif that was simply hilarious!
UPDATE:
On the same site (twitter.com/jokerwrld) I found something even more hilarious!
Yesterday (on 19 April 2021) Nikola Jokic scored 47 points (on 18-25 2P, 2-6 3P and 5-6 FT) and he also had 15 rebounds and 8 assists! It was a MONSTER game by Nikola Jokic!
Today (on 20 April 2021) I found this:
It's a screenshot, but the comment was actually a gif that was simply hilarious!
UPDATE:
On the same site (twitter.com/jokerwrld) I found something even more hilarious!
nuggets twitter when they find another show/podcast that says Jokic isnt the MVP pic.twitter.com/xaQSp2cxtF
— Ryan Greene 📷 (@RyanCBS4) April 21, 2021
NBA 2021 MVP race – part 3
(Originally posted on Sunday, 18 April 2021)
Part 3 ends with games played on Saturday 17 April 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).
Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 2012.2 (projected team wins: 46)
2. Donovan Mitchell: 1581.6 (projected team wins: 53)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1551.4 (projected team wins: 45)
4. Rudy Gobert: 1526.4 (projected team wins: 53)
5. Damian Lillard: 1517.2 (projected team wins: 42)
6. Joel Embiid: 1421.4 (projected team wins: 50)
7. Devin Booker: 1398.3 (projected team wins: 51)
8. Luka Doncic: 1389.5 (projected team wins: 39)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1371.8 (projected team wins: 48)
10. Chris Paul: 1360.5 (projected team wins: 51)
11. Tobias Harris: 1307.9 (projected team wins: 50)
12. Kyrie Irving: 1303.7 (projected team wins: 49)
13. Deandre Ayton: 1300.5 (projected team wins: 51)
14. Julius Randle: 1271.3 (projected team wins: 38)
15. Stephen Curry: 1265.8 (projected team wins: 35)
16. Khris Middleton: 1240.5 (projected team wins: 45)
17. Jayson Tatum: 1185.8 (projected team wins: 39)
18. Paul George: 1168.8 (projected team wins: 48)
19. Trae Young: 1167.1 (projected team wins: 39)
20. LeBron James: 1152.3 (projected team wins: 44)
Nikola Jokic is the CLEAR leader of the race! Donovan Mitchell got injured, so he's out of contention. Giannis Antetokounmpo will definitely not get a third straight MVP award. Rudy Gobert is always undervalued in the eyes of the mass media, so Damian Lillard should get plenty of votes. All the other players are too much behind in the race to be seriously considered contenders.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:
1. Karl-Anthony Towns: 790.5 (projected team wins: 19)
2. Jerami Grant: 763.2 (projected team wins: 21)
3. De'Aaron Fox: 761.2 (projected team wins: 28)
4. Zach LaVine: 755.4 (projected team wins: 30)
5. Bradley Beal: 702.2 (projected team wins: 30)
6. Anthony Edwards: 685.7 (projected team wins: 19)
7. Russell Westbrook: 664.0 (projected team wins: 30)
8. Zion Williamson: 653.8 (projected team wins: 32)
9. Stephen Curry: 651.0 (projected team wins: 35)
10. Jae'Sean Tate: 620.8 (projected team wins: 18)
11. Christian Wood: 615.3 (projected team wins: 18)
12. Collin Sexton: 608.4 (projected team wins: 26)
13. Mason Plumlee: 600.7 (projected team wins: 21)
14. Brandon Ingram: 598.9 (projected team wins: 32)
15. Domantas Sabonis: 575.1 (projected team wins: 34)
16. Harrison Barnes: 565.2 (projected team wins: 28)
17. Richaun Holmes: 562.9 (projected team wins: 28)
18. Pascal Siakam: 558.0 (projected team wins: 29)
19. Buddy Hield: 555.4 (projected team wins: 28)
20. John Wall: 553.2 (projected team wins: 18)
Currently there is 1 player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Stephen Curry (15th and 9th).
Part 3 ends with games played on Saturday 17 April 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).
Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 2012.2 (projected team wins: 46)
2. Donovan Mitchell: 1581.6 (projected team wins: 53)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1551.4 (projected team wins: 45)
4. Rudy Gobert: 1526.4 (projected team wins: 53)
5. Damian Lillard: 1517.2 (projected team wins: 42)
6. Joel Embiid: 1421.4 (projected team wins: 50)
7. Devin Booker: 1398.3 (projected team wins: 51)
8. Luka Doncic: 1389.5 (projected team wins: 39)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1371.8 (projected team wins: 48)
10. Chris Paul: 1360.5 (projected team wins: 51)
11. Tobias Harris: 1307.9 (projected team wins: 50)
12. Kyrie Irving: 1303.7 (projected team wins: 49)
13. Deandre Ayton: 1300.5 (projected team wins: 51)
14. Julius Randle: 1271.3 (projected team wins: 38)
15. Stephen Curry: 1265.8 (projected team wins: 35)
16. Khris Middleton: 1240.5 (projected team wins: 45)
17. Jayson Tatum: 1185.8 (projected team wins: 39)
18. Paul George: 1168.8 (projected team wins: 48)
19. Trae Young: 1167.1 (projected team wins: 39)
20. LeBron James: 1152.3 (projected team wins: 44)
Nikola Jokic is the CLEAR leader of the race! Donovan Mitchell got injured, so he's out of contention. Giannis Antetokounmpo will definitely not get a third straight MVP award. Rudy Gobert is always undervalued in the eyes of the mass media, so Damian Lillard should get plenty of votes. All the other players are too much behind in the race to be seriously considered contenders.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:
1. Karl-Anthony Towns: 790.5 (projected team wins: 19)
2. Jerami Grant: 763.2 (projected team wins: 21)
3. De'Aaron Fox: 761.2 (projected team wins: 28)
4. Zach LaVine: 755.4 (projected team wins: 30)
5. Bradley Beal: 702.2 (projected team wins: 30)
6. Anthony Edwards: 685.7 (projected team wins: 19)
7. Russell Westbrook: 664.0 (projected team wins: 30)
8. Zion Williamson: 653.8 (projected team wins: 32)
9. Stephen Curry: 651.0 (projected team wins: 35)
10. Jae'Sean Tate: 620.8 (projected team wins: 18)
11. Christian Wood: 615.3 (projected team wins: 18)
12. Collin Sexton: 608.4 (projected team wins: 26)
13. Mason Plumlee: 600.7 (projected team wins: 21)
14. Brandon Ingram: 598.9 (projected team wins: 32)
15. Domantas Sabonis: 575.1 (projected team wins: 34)
16. Harrison Barnes: 565.2 (projected team wins: 28)
17. Richaun Holmes: 562.9 (projected team wins: 28)
18. Pascal Siakam: 558.0 (projected team wins: 29)
19. Buddy Hield: 555.4 (projected team wins: 28)
20. John Wall: 553.2 (projected team wins: 18)
Currently there is 1 player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Stephen Curry (15th and 9th).
NBA 2021 MVP race – part 2
(Originally posted on Monday, 15 March 2021)
Part 2 ends with games played on Saturday 13 March 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).
Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 1886.0 (projected team wins: 42)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1836.9 (projected team wins: 45)
3. Joel Embiid: 1708.6 (projected team wins: 49)
4. Damian Lillard: 1672.2 (projected team wins: 43)
5. LeBron James: 1657.3 (projected team wins: 47)
6. Donovan Mitchell: 1530.1 (projected team wins: 54)
7. Rudy Gobert: 1504.2 (projected team wins: 54)
8. Luka Doncic: 1418.9 (projected team wins: 39)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1357.7 (projected team wins: 46)
10. Stephen Curry: 1355.6 (projected team wins: 36)
11. Khris Middleton: 1330.6 (projected team wins: 45)
12. Chris Paul: 1305.6 (projected team wins: 49)
13. Kyrie Irving: 1274.4 (projected team wins: 48)
14. Julius Randle: 1257.9 (projected team wins: 37)
15. Devin Booker: 1256.5 (projected team wins: 49)
16. Tobias Harris: 1246.9 (projected team wins: 49)
17. Deandre Ayton: 1209.5 (projected team wins: 49)
18. Jordan Clarkson: 1204.4 (projected team wins: 54)
19. Zach LaVine: 1164.4 (projected team wins: 32)
20. Trae Young: 1124.3 (projected team wins: 34)
Nikola Jokic is the leader of the race! The MVP value of LeBron James dropped significantly because his team's projected record dropped by 10 wins, mostly because Anthony Davis got injured. Yep, the MVP award is actually not quite an individual award.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:
1. Nikola Vucevic: 1035.1 (projected team wins: 25)
2. Jerami Grant: 926.4 (projected team wins: 19)
3. Bradley Beal: 910.6 (projected team wins: 27)
4. Malik Beasley: 849.0 (projected team wins: 15)
5. Zach LaVine: 764.2 (projected team wins: 32)
6. Brandon Ingram: 717.9 (projected team wins: 30)
7. Zion Williamson: 711.3 (projected team wins: 30)
8. De'Aaron Fox: 704.4 (projected team wins: 28)
9. Mason Plumlee: 672.9 (projected team wins: 19)
10. Domantas Sabonis: 657.3 (projected team wins: 33)
11. Stephen Curry: 640.2 (projected team wins: 36)
12. Anthony Edwards: 640.0 (projected team wins: 15)
13. Naz Reid: 636.2 (projected team wins: 15)
14. Trae Young: 628.3 (projected team wins: 34)
15. Russell Westbrook: 621.4 (projected team wins: 27)
16. Karl-Anthony Towns: 617.9 (projected team wins: 15)
17. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 604.5 (projected team wins: 30)
18. Collin Sexton: 598.6 (projected team wins: 27)
19. Harrison Barnes: 572.7 (projected team wins: 28)
20. Malcolm Brogdon: 567.8 (projected team wins: 33)
Currently there are 3 players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Stephen Curry (10th and 11th), Zach LaVine (19th and 5th) and Trae Young (20th and 14th).
Part 2 ends with games played on Saturday 13 March 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).
Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 1886.0 (projected team wins: 42)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1836.9 (projected team wins: 45)
3. Joel Embiid: 1708.6 (projected team wins: 49)
4. Damian Lillard: 1672.2 (projected team wins: 43)
5. LeBron James: 1657.3 (projected team wins: 47)
6. Donovan Mitchell: 1530.1 (projected team wins: 54)
7. Rudy Gobert: 1504.2 (projected team wins: 54)
8. Luka Doncic: 1418.9 (projected team wins: 39)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1357.7 (projected team wins: 46)
10. Stephen Curry: 1355.6 (projected team wins: 36)
11. Khris Middleton: 1330.6 (projected team wins: 45)
12. Chris Paul: 1305.6 (projected team wins: 49)
13. Kyrie Irving: 1274.4 (projected team wins: 48)
14. Julius Randle: 1257.9 (projected team wins: 37)
15. Devin Booker: 1256.5 (projected team wins: 49)
16. Tobias Harris: 1246.9 (projected team wins: 49)
17. Deandre Ayton: 1209.5 (projected team wins: 49)
18. Jordan Clarkson: 1204.4 (projected team wins: 54)
19. Zach LaVine: 1164.4 (projected team wins: 32)
20. Trae Young: 1124.3 (projected team wins: 34)
Nikola Jokic is the leader of the race! The MVP value of LeBron James dropped significantly because his team's projected record dropped by 10 wins, mostly because Anthony Davis got injured. Yep, the MVP award is actually not quite an individual award.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:
1. Nikola Vucevic: 1035.1 (projected team wins: 25)
2. Jerami Grant: 926.4 (projected team wins: 19)
3. Bradley Beal: 910.6 (projected team wins: 27)
4. Malik Beasley: 849.0 (projected team wins: 15)
5. Zach LaVine: 764.2 (projected team wins: 32)
6. Brandon Ingram: 717.9 (projected team wins: 30)
7. Zion Williamson: 711.3 (projected team wins: 30)
8. De'Aaron Fox: 704.4 (projected team wins: 28)
9. Mason Plumlee: 672.9 (projected team wins: 19)
10. Domantas Sabonis: 657.3 (projected team wins: 33)
11. Stephen Curry: 640.2 (projected team wins: 36)
12. Anthony Edwards: 640.0 (projected team wins: 15)
13. Naz Reid: 636.2 (projected team wins: 15)
14. Trae Young: 628.3 (projected team wins: 34)
15. Russell Westbrook: 621.4 (projected team wins: 27)
16. Karl-Anthony Towns: 617.9 (projected team wins: 15)
17. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 604.5 (projected team wins: 30)
18. Collin Sexton: 598.6 (projected team wins: 27)
19. Harrison Barnes: 572.7 (projected team wins: 28)
20. Malcolm Brogdon: 567.8 (projected team wins: 33)
Currently there are 3 players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Stephen Curry (10th and 11th), Zach LaVine (19th and 5th) and Trae Young (20th and 14th).
NBA 2021 MVP race – part 1
(Originally posted on Sunday, 17 January 2021)
Part 1 ends with games played on Friday 15 January 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).
Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:
1. LeBron James: 1964.6 (projected team wins: 57)
2. Jaylen Brown: 1767.3 (projected team wins: 52)
3. Jayson Tatum: 1679.6 (projected team wins: 52)
4. Paul George: 1661.5 (projected team wins: 50)
5. Khris Middleton: 1647.3 (projected team wins: 50)
6. Malcolm Brogdon: 1642.3 (projected team wins: 48)
7. Domantas Sabonis: 1636.9 (projected team wins: 48)
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1621.2 (projected team wins: 50)
9. CJ McCollum: 1611.7 (projected team wins: 42)
10. Anthony Davis: 1601.5 (projected team wins: 57)
11. Joel Embiid: 1592.7 (projected team wins: 50)
12. Nikola Jokic: 1539.5 (projected team wins: 36)
13. Damian Lillard: 1529.8 (projected team wins: 42)
14. Kawhi Leonard: 1497.7 (projected team wins: 50)
15. Luka Doncic: 1360.0 (projected team wins: 39)
16. Stephen Curry: 1344.9 (projected team wins: 36)
17. Donovan Mitchell: 1296.8 (projected team wins: 48)
18. Jrue Holiday: 1248.0 (projected team wins: 50)
19. Nikola Vucevic: 1240.5 (projected team wins: 36)
20. Mike Conley: 1225.9 (projected team wins: 48)
What a wild list! LeBron James is the first leader of the race, but this is the only “normal” thing about this list. Well, some people could say it's actually NOT normal that a person who is 36 years old were clearly the most valuable player in the NBA.
At the second place there is Jaylen Brown! But he is ahead of Jayson Tatum only because Tatum missed 1 game and the projection magnified this fact. Over time one missed game should be meaningless. Nevertheless the start of the season has been a huge success for both of them! Respect!
The following players are very close behind and some very good players are not even on the list, so the race should be quite interesting.
Please, notice that James Harden has already been traded, so he will be out of the race once he plays one game with his new team! Well, it actually already happened (on Saturday), but my calculations were based only on games played up to Friday.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:
1. Jerami Grant: 1268.1 (projected team wins: 13)
2. Bradley Beal: 1261.8 (projected team wins: 20)
3. Zach LaVine: 1016.7 (projected team wins: 24)
4. Fred VanVleet: 958.8 (projected team wins: 20)
5. Chris Boucher: 883.4 (projected team wins: 20)
6. Pascal Siakam: 855.4 (projected team wins: 20)
7. Brandon Ingram: 854.6 (projected team wins: 26)
8. Kyle Lowry: 847.2 (projected team wins: 20)
9. Julius Randle: 837.0 (projected team wins: 28)
10. Malik Beasley: 822.4 (projected team wins: 20)
11. D'Angelo Russell: 790.5 (projected team wins: 20)
12. Mason Plumlee: 766.3 (projected team wins: 13)
13. Nikola Jokic: 727.0 (projected team wins: 36)
14. James Harden: 703.8 (projected team wins: 29)
15. Christian Wood: 695.0 (projected team wins: 29)
16. Coby White: 681.5 (projected team wins: 24)
17. Thomas Bryant: 660.8 (projected team wins: 20)
18. Stephen Curry: 635.1 (projected team wins: 36)
19. Harrison Barnes: 630.6 (projected team wins: 28)
20. OG Anunoby: 629.0 (projected team wins: 20)
Currently there are 2 players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Nikola Jokic (12th and 13th) and Stephen Curry (16th and 18th).
Please, notice that James Harden has already been traded, so he will be out of the list once he plays one game with his new team! Well, it actually already happened (on Saturday), but my calculations were based only on games played up to Friday.
Part 1 ends with games played on Friday 15 January 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).
Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:
1. LeBron James: 1964.6 (projected team wins: 57)
2. Jaylen Brown: 1767.3 (projected team wins: 52)
3. Jayson Tatum: 1679.6 (projected team wins: 52)
4. Paul George: 1661.5 (projected team wins: 50)
5. Khris Middleton: 1647.3 (projected team wins: 50)
6. Malcolm Brogdon: 1642.3 (projected team wins: 48)
7. Domantas Sabonis: 1636.9 (projected team wins: 48)
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1621.2 (projected team wins: 50)
9. CJ McCollum: 1611.7 (projected team wins: 42)
10. Anthony Davis: 1601.5 (projected team wins: 57)
11. Joel Embiid: 1592.7 (projected team wins: 50)
12. Nikola Jokic: 1539.5 (projected team wins: 36)
13. Damian Lillard: 1529.8 (projected team wins: 42)
14. Kawhi Leonard: 1497.7 (projected team wins: 50)
15. Luka Doncic: 1360.0 (projected team wins: 39)
16. Stephen Curry: 1344.9 (projected team wins: 36)
17. Donovan Mitchell: 1296.8 (projected team wins: 48)
18. Jrue Holiday: 1248.0 (projected team wins: 50)
19. Nikola Vucevic: 1240.5 (projected team wins: 36)
20. Mike Conley: 1225.9 (projected team wins: 48)
What a wild list! LeBron James is the first leader of the race, but this is the only “normal” thing about this list. Well, some people could say it's actually NOT normal that a person who is 36 years old were clearly the most valuable player in the NBA.
At the second place there is Jaylen Brown! But he is ahead of Jayson Tatum only because Tatum missed 1 game and the projection magnified this fact. Over time one missed game should be meaningless. Nevertheless the start of the season has been a huge success for both of them! Respect!
The following players are very close behind and some very good players are not even on the list, so the race should be quite interesting.
Please, notice that James Harden has already been traded, so he will be out of the race once he plays one game with his new team! Well, it actually already happened (on Saturday), but my calculations were based only on games played up to Friday.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:
1. Jerami Grant: 1268.1 (projected team wins: 13)
2. Bradley Beal: 1261.8 (projected team wins: 20)
3. Zach LaVine: 1016.7 (projected team wins: 24)
4. Fred VanVleet: 958.8 (projected team wins: 20)
5. Chris Boucher: 883.4 (projected team wins: 20)
6. Pascal Siakam: 855.4 (projected team wins: 20)
7. Brandon Ingram: 854.6 (projected team wins: 26)
8. Kyle Lowry: 847.2 (projected team wins: 20)
9. Julius Randle: 837.0 (projected team wins: 28)
10. Malik Beasley: 822.4 (projected team wins: 20)
11. D'Angelo Russell: 790.5 (projected team wins: 20)
12. Mason Plumlee: 766.3 (projected team wins: 13)
13. Nikola Jokic: 727.0 (projected team wins: 36)
14. James Harden: 703.8 (projected team wins: 29)
15. Christian Wood: 695.0 (projected team wins: 29)
16. Coby White: 681.5 (projected team wins: 24)
17. Thomas Bryant: 660.8 (projected team wins: 20)
18. Stephen Curry: 635.1 (projected team wins: 36)
19. Harrison Barnes: 630.6 (projected team wins: 28)
20. OG Anunoby: 629.0 (projected team wins: 20)
Currently there are 2 players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Nikola Jokic (12th and 13th) and Stephen Curry (16th and 18th).
Please, notice that James Harden has already been traded, so he will be out of the list once he plays one game with his new team! Well, it actually already happened (on Saturday), but my calculations were based only on games played up to Friday.
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