NBA 2021 MVP race – part 3

(Originally posted on Sunday, 18 April 2021)

Part 3 ends with games played on Saturday 17 April 2021.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).

Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it.

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:

1. Nikola Jokic:    2012.2    (projected team wins: 46)
2. Donovan Mitchell:    1581.6    (projected team wins: 53)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    1551.4    (projected team wins: 45)
4. Rudy Gobert:    1526.4    (projected team wins: 53)
5. Damian Lillard:    1517.2    (projected team wins: 42)
6. Joel Embiid:    1421.4    (projected team wins: 50)
7. Devin Booker:    1398.3    (projected team wins: 51)
8. Luka Doncic:    1389.5    (projected team wins: 39)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1371.8    (projected team wins: 48)
10. Chris Paul:    1360.5    (projected team wins: 51)
11. Tobias Harris:    1307.9    (projected team wins: 50)
12. Kyrie Irving:    1303.7    (projected team wins: 49)
13. Deandre Ayton:    1300.5    (projected team wins: 51)
14. Julius Randle:    1271.3    (projected team wins: 38)
15. Stephen Curry:    1265.8    (projected team wins: 35)
16. Khris Middleton:    1240.5    (projected team wins: 45)
17. Jayson Tatum:    1185.8    (projected team wins: 39)
18. Paul George:    1168.8    (projected team wins: 48)
19. Trae Young:    1167.1    (projected team wins: 39)
20. LeBron James:    1152.3    (projected team wins: 44)

Nikola Jokic is the CLEAR leader of the race! Donovan Mitchell got injured, so he's out of contention. Giannis Antetokounmpo will definitely not get a third straight MVP award. Rudy Gobert is always undervalued in the eyes of the mass media, so Damian Lillard should get plenty of votes. All the other players are too much behind in the race to be seriously considered contenders.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:

1. Karl-Anthony Towns:    790.5    (projected team wins: 19)
2. Jerami Grant:    763.2    (projected team wins: 21)
3. De'Aaron Fox:    761.2    (projected team wins: 28)
4. Zach LaVine:    755.4    (projected team wins: 30)
5. Bradley Beal:    702.2    (projected team wins: 30)
6. Anthony Edwards:    685.7    (projected team wins: 19)
7. Russell Westbrook:    664.0    (projected team wins: 30)
8. Zion Williamson:    653.8    (projected team wins: 32)
9. Stephen Curry:    651.0    (projected team wins: 35)
10. Jae'Sean Tate:    620.8    (projected team wins: 18)
11. Christian Wood:    615.3    (projected team wins: 18)
12. Collin Sexton:    608.4    (projected team wins: 26)
13. Mason Plumlee:    600.7    (projected team wins: 21)
14. Brandon Ingram:    598.9    (projected team wins: 32)
15. Domantas Sabonis:    575.1    (projected team wins: 34)
16. Harrison Barnes:    565.2    (projected team wins: 28)
17. Richaun Holmes:    562.9    (projected team wins: 28)
18. Pascal Siakam:    558.0    (projected team wins: 29)
19. Buddy Hield:    555.4    (projected team wins: 28)
20. John Wall:    553.2    (projected team wins: 18)

Currently there is 1 player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Stephen Curry (15th and 9th).