NBA 2019 MVP race (part 12) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 6)

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 2 April 2019)

Part 12 = the end of week 24. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 24 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:

1. James Harden:    2323.3    (projected team wins: 52)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2301.4    (projected team wins: 61)
3. Kevin Durant:    1986.9    (projected team wins: 56)
4. Nikola Jokic:    1891.7    (projected team wins: 55)
5. Stephen Curry:    1821.6    (projected team wins: 56)
6. Damian Lillard:    1808.8    (projected team wins: 52)
7. Paul George:    1707.7    (projected team wins: 47)
8. Joel Embiid:    1680.1    (projected team wins: 52)
9. Rudy Gobert:    1531.8    (projected team wins: 50)
10. Kawhi Leonard:    1503.6    (projected team wins: 58)
11. Klay Thompson:    1465.7    (projected team wins: 56)
12. Ben Simmons:    1459.9    (projected team wins: 52)
13. Russell Westbrook:    1458.5    (projected team wins: 47)
14. Khris Middleton:    1427.7    (projected team wins: 61)
15. Pascal Siakam:    1423.1    (projected team wins: 58)
16. Eric Bledsoe:    1415.6    (projected team wins: 61)
17. LaMarcus Aldridge:    1383.6    (projected team wins: 47)
18. Kyrie Irving:    1351.8    (projected team wins: 48)
19. Nikola Vucevic:    1322.8    (projected team wins: 40)
20. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1309.9    (projected team wins: 36)
21. Jusuf Nurkic:    1275.9    (projected team wins: 52)
22. Brook Lopez:    1261.8    (projected team wins: 61)
23. DeMar DeRozan:    1259.3    (projected team wins: 47)
24. Blake Griffin:    1259.3    (projected team wins: 42)
25. Donovan Mitchell:    1256.2    (projected team wins: 50)
26. Clint Capela:    1238.7    (projected team wins: 52)
27. Andre Drummond:    1231.9    (projected team wins: 42)
28. Jamal Murray:    1192.2    (projected team wins: 55)
29. Kyle Lowry:    1187.6    (projected team wins: 58)
30. Serge Ibaka:    1181.2    (projected team wins: 58)

James Harden advanced (finally) to the first place. He is having a historic season offensively and he clearly deserves the MVP award. Since the NBA merged with the ABA (since 1976) only 1 player ONCE had a higher points-per-game average. It was Michael Jordan in the season 1986-87, BUT James Harden has now a clearly better scoring/shooting efficiency than Jordan had then. James Harden is also the ONLY player EVER to have per-game averages of at least 34.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists. Currently he has per-game averages of 36.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 7.6 assists.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is having a historic season too. Since the NBA merged with the ABA (since 1976) he is the ONLY player in that time to have per-game averages of at least 26.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists. Currently he has per-game averages of 27.4 points, 12.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists. However, in earlier seasons (before the season 1976-77) 4 other players had this (or much better) kind of averages (Wilt Chamberlain twice).

To me the per-game averages of James Harden are a little more impressive, but I have to admit that Giannis Antetokounmpo is a better defender. The voting should be very close.

Interestingly, Rudy Gobert advanced to the 9th place.

With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 24 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:

1. Devin Booker:    1060.4    (projected team wins: 19)
2. Deandre Ayton:    971.6    (projected team wins: 19)
3. Bradley Beal:    880.2    (projected team wins: 34)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns:    873.3    (projected team wins: 36)
5. Zach LaVine:    857.0    (projected team wins: 22)
6. Anthony Davis:    772.3    (projected team wins: 34)
7. Jordan Clarkson:    772.2    (projected team wins: 20)
8. Trae Young:    730.2    (projected team wins: 30)
9. Kemba Walker:    730.0    (projected team wins: 37)
10. Mike Conley:    715.0    (projected team wins: 33)
11. Collin Sexton:    695.1    (projected team wins: 20)
12. Luka Doncic:    693.9    (projected team wins: 33)
13. Jrue Holiday:    675.8    (projected team wins: 34)
14. Julius Randle:    669.8    (projected team wins: 34)
15. Lauri Markkanen:    665.3    (projected team wins: 22)
16. Nikola Vucevic:    661.4    (projected team wins: 40)
17. Cedi Osman:    639.8    (projected team wins: 20)
18. John Collins:    635.8    (projected team wins: 30)
19. LeBron James:    635.7    (projected team wins: 37)
20. Noah Vonleh:    635.3    (projected team wins: 16)
21. Larry Nance:    620.0    (projected team wins: 20)
22. Emmanuel Mudiay:    583.3    (projected team wins: 16)
23. Mitchell Robinson:    575.4    (projected team wins: 16)
24. Damyean Dotson:    573.6    (projected team wins: 16)
25. Mikal Bridges:    570.6    (projected team wins: 19)
26. Kevin Knox:    543.5    (projected team wins: 16)
27. Blake Griffin:    539.7    (projected team wins: 42)
28. Buddy Hield:    536.2    (projected team wins: 40)
29. Josh Jackson:    530.2    (projected team wins: 19)
30. Andre Drummond:    527.9    (projected team wins: 42)

There are currently 4 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Karl-Anthony Towns (20th and 4th), Nikola Vucevic (19th and 16th), Blake Griffin (24th and 27th) and Andre Drummond (27th and 30th).