NBA 2019 MVP race (part 7) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 1)

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 22 January 2019)

Part 7 = the end of week 14. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 14 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2298.2    (projected team wins: 61)
2. Kevin Durant:    2279.9    (projected team wins: 58)
3. James Harden:    2008.4    (projected team wins: 46)
4. Joel Embiid:    1962.1    (projected team wins: 53)
5. Nikola Jokic:    1896.3    (projected team wins: 56)
6. Stephen Curry:    1810.9    (projected team wins: 58)
7. Paul George:    1794.0    (projected team wins: 50)
8. Damian Lillard:    1706.5    (projected team wins: 50)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1692.9    (projected team wins: 60)
10. Anthony Davis:    1546.5    (projected team wins: 38)
11. Klay Thompson:    1538.2    (projected team wins: 58)
12. Kyrie Irving:    1537.2    (projected team wins: 51)
13. Ben Simmons:    1504.0    (projected team wins: 53)
14. Eric Bledsoe:    1461.1    (projected team wins: 61)
15. Khris Middleton:    1402.0    (projected team wins: 61)
16. Pascal Siakam:    1392.4    (projected team wins: 60)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1369.6    (projected team wins: 39)
18. Russell Westbrook:    1361.4    (projected team wins: 50)
19. Jamal Murray:    1329.5    (projected team wins: 56)
20. Tobias Harris:    1328.0    (projected team wins: 45)
21. Rudy Gobert:    1319.2    (projected team wins: 44)
22. Domantas Sabonis:    1311.4    (projected team wins: 55)
23. LaMarcus Aldridge:    1310.0    (projected team wins: 46)
24. Jusuf Nurkic:    1289.1    (projected team wins: 50)
25. Malcolm Brogdon:    1284.1    (projected team wins: 61)
26. Clint Capela:    1280.1    (projected team wins: 46)
27. DeMar DeRozan:    1266.8    (projected team wins: 46)
28. Serge Ibaka:    1251.7    (projected team wins: 60)
29. Kemba Walker:    1227.7    (projected team wins: 39)
30. Steven Adams:    1217.9    (projected team wins: 50)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the leader of the race. Kevin Durant is very close, but there is no way he will win the MVP award, considering how well Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have been playing recently. James Harden overtook Joel Embiid and is now 3rd, but his team's projected record worsened a bit (mostly because of Chris Paul's injury.). Nikola Jokic is back in the top-5, but this time it's for real (previously he was even in the top-3, but only after week 2, which was “too small a sample”).

LeBron James may have already lost ANY chances of winning the race (because of his injury). Currently he is not even in the top-30 and the chances that his team will win close to 60 games are only virtual.

With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 14 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:

1. Deandre Ayton:    1079.0    (projected team wins: 19)
2. Zach LaVine:    927.8    (projected team wins: 19)
3. Enes Kanter:    918.8    (projected team wins: 18)
4. Anthony Davis:    895.3    (projected team wins: 38)
5. Devin Booker:    871.5    (projected team wins: 19)
6. Tim Hardaway:    840.8    (projected team wins: 18)
7. Jordan Clarkson:    836.0    (projected team wins: 15)
8. T.J. Warren:    832.9    (projected team wins: 19)
9. Nikola Vucevic:    819.6    (projected team wins: 35)
10. Blake Griffin:    777.7    (projected team wins: 36)
11. Bradley Beal:    754.2    (projected team wins: 36)
12. Noah Vonleh:    749.4    (projected team wins: 18)
13. Karl-Anthony Towns:    737.5    (projected team wins: 39)
14. Mike Conley:    713.0    (projected team wins: 33)
15. Tristan Thompson:    696.6    (projected team wins: 15)
16. Larry Nance:    690.7    (projected team wins: 15)
17. Marc Gasol:    682.8    (projected team wins: 33)
18. Trae Young:    672.6    (projected team wins: 25)
19. Wendell Carter:    661.8    (projected team wins: 19)
20. Kemba Walker:    661.0    (projected team wins: 39)
21. Collin Sexton:    660.9    (projected team wins: 15)
22. Jrue Holiday:    655.1    (projected team wins: 38)
23. Emmanuel Mudiay:    639.6    (projected team wins: 18)
24. Cedi Osman:    632.9    (projected team wins: 15)
25. John Collins:    631.7    (projected team wins: 25)
26. Luka Doncic:    629.3    (projected team wins: 36)
27. Andre Drummond:    619.0    (projected team wins: 36)
28. James Harden:    611.2    (projected team wins: 46)
29. Julius Randle:    607.7    (projected team wins: 38)
30. Rodney Hood:    595.2    (projected team wins: 15)

Why is Deandre Ayton projected to be significantly more frustrated than Devin Booker? Because Booker has already missed 13 games (projected to miss 22 games) and Ayton missed only 1 game so far (projected to miss only 2 games), so Ayton is projected to play in much more games that were/will be VERY hard to win (without Booker), so most of them were/will be losses, even though he is playing very well himself.

Pleas notice that there are 4 (FOUR) players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list! The most striking case is Anthony Davis – he is 10th on the MVP list and 4th on the MFP list. The other 3 such players are: Karl-Anthony Towns (17th and 13th), Kemba Walker (29th and 20th) and James Harden (3rd and 28th). Interesting, isn't it?