NBA 2019 MVP race (part 8) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 2)

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 5 February 2019)

Part 8 = the end of week 16. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 16 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2385.9    (projected team wins: 62)
2. Kevin Durant:    2221.1    (projected team wins: 58)
3. James Harden:    2174.5    (projected team wins: 48)
4. Paul George:    1955.7    (projected team wins: 52)
5. Nikola Jokic:    1938.4    (projected team wins: 57)
6. Joel Embiid:    1930.0    (projected team wins: 53)
7. Stephen Curry:    1841.2    (projected team wins: 58)
8. Damian Lillard:    1705.3    (projected team wins: 50)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1593.1    (projected team wins: 58)
10. Kyrie Irving:    1537.1    (projected team wins: 53)
11. Ben Simmons:    1528.7    (projected team wins: 53)
12. Klay Thompson:    1487.1    (projected team wins: 58)
13. Russell Westbrook:    1484.8    (projected team wins: 52)
14. Eric Bledsoe:    1452.2    (projected team wins: 62)
15. Khris Middleton:    1439.8    (projected team wins: 62)
16. LaMarcus Aldridge:    1414.8    (projected team wins: 48)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1405.2    (projected team wins: 39)
18. Rudy Gobert:    1385.2    (projected team wins: 46)
19. Pascal Siakam:    1356.2    (projected team wins: 58)
20. Malcolm Brogdon:    1291.1    (projected team wins: 62)
21. Tobias Harris:    1279.9    (projected team wins: 44)
22. Kemba Walker:    1274.4    (projected team wins: 41)
23. Jusuf Nurkic:    1265.0    (projected team wins: 50)
24. DeMar DeRozan:    1246.7    (projected team wins: 48)
25. Anthony Davis:    1239.7    (projected team wins: 35)
26. Steven Adams:    1239.6    (projected team wins: 52)
27. Serge Ibaka:    1230.2    (projected team wins: 58)
28. Brook Lopez:    1206.7    (projected team wins: 62)
29. CJ McCollum:    1204.3    (projected team wins: 50)
30. Domantas Sabonis:    1200.8    (projected team wins: 53)

Giannis Antetokounmpo increased his lead over Kevin Durant, but at the same time James Harden increased his MVP value even more and actually got closer to the top. Paul George played so well that he advanced to the 4th place.

With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 16 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:

1. Deandre Ayton:    1046.6    (projected team wins: 16)
2. Devin Booker:    993.3    (projected team wins: 16)
3. Zach LaVine:    929.7    (projected team wins: 19)
4. Anthony Davis:    885.5    (projected team wins: 35)
5. Nikola Vucevic:    858.8    (projected team wins: 34)
6. Tim Hardaway:    845.8    (projected team wins: 16)
7. Enes Kanter:    842.5    (projected team wins: 16)
8. Bradley Beal:    824.6    (projected team wins: 34)
9. Jordan Clarkson:    810.4    (projected team wins: 17)
10. T.J. Warren:    785.4    (projected team wins: 16)
11. Blake Griffin:    776.9    (projected team wins: 36)
12. Noah Vonleh:    776.7    (projected team wins: 16)
13. Karl-Anthony Towns:    756.7    (projected team wins: 39)
14. Mike Conley:    755.8    (projected team wins: 32)
15. Jrue Holiday:    753.5    (projected team wins: 35)
16. Marc Gasol:    718.1    (projected team wins: 32)
17. Cedi Osman:    668.9    (projected team wins: 17)
18. Trae Young:    663.4    (projected team wins: 28)
19. Larry Nance:    647.4    (projected team wins: 17)
20. John Collins:    637.5    (projected team wins: 28)
21. Andre Drummond:    635.0    (projected team wins: 36)
22. Collin Sexton:    616.9    (projected team wins: 17)
23. Julius Randle:    610.7    (projected team wins: 35)
24. Tristan Thompson:    602.8    (projected team wins: 17)
25. Mikal Bridges:    593.3    (projected team wins: 16)
26. Kemba Walker:    590.6    (projected team wins: 41)
27. Luka Doncic:    589.5    (projected team wins: 38)
28. Emmanuel Mudiay:    588.4    (projected team wins: 16)
29. Wendell Carter:    586.9    (projected team wins: 19)
30. Rodney Hood:    562.8    (projected team wins: 17)

Devin Booker is healthy, but his team lost all 7 games in the last 2 weeks, so his frustration increased significantly. Deandre Ayton missed 6 of these 7 games and his projected MFP value decreased a little (he is now projected to have lower overall value, because of the injury).

There are currently 3 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Anthony Davis (25th and 4th), Karl-Anthony Towns (17th and 13th) and Kemba Walker (22th and 26th).