NBA 2022 MVP race – part 1

(Originally posted on Sunday, 28 November 2021)

Part 1 ends with games played on 27 November 2021.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:

1. Stephen Curry:    2856.4    (projected team wins: 73)
2. Kevin Durant:    2137.3    (projected team wins: 57)
3. Devin Booker:    2055.4    (projected team wins: 70)
4. Chris Paul:    1937.7    (projected team wins: 70)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    1904.8    (projected team wins: 49)
6. James Harden:    1876.8    (projected team wins: 57)
7. Andrew Wiggins:    1718.2    (projected team wins: 73)
8. DeMar DeRozan:    1635.0    (projected team wins: 51)
9. Rudy Gobert:    1596.5    (projected team wins: 53)
10. Jordan Poole:    1594.1    (projected team wins: 73)
11. Zach LaVine:    1570.4    (projected team wins: 51)
12. Paul George:    1522.8    (projected team wins: 47)
13. Jimmy Butler:    1518.4    (projected team wins: 53)
14. LaMelo Ball:    1496.8    (projected team wins: 48)
15. Draymond Green:    1476.0    (projected team wins: 73)
16. Trae Young:    1462.4    (projected team wins: 43)
17. Montrezl Harrell:    1425.3    (projected team wins: 53)
18. Mikal Bridges:    1400.2    (projected team wins: 70)
19. Donovan Mitchell:    1391.6    (projected team wins: 53)
20. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1370.8    (projected team wins: 41)

Stephen Curry is again phenomenal (Ste-phen-omenon Curry) and he's the clear leader of the race. Personally I like the fact that DeMar DeRozan is back on the list after being stuck on the San Antonio Spurs team for the last 3 years, with ageing Gregg Popovich making some really strange decisions (like taking Derrick White to the 2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup or taking Keldon Johnson to the 2020 Summer Olympics – yes, it had nothing to do with the NBA, but it clearly showed the state of mind of Popovich – to me it was totally unacceptable “by default”). It's also good that DeRozan helped Zach LaVine get on the list, while the Chicago Bulls are again a very strong team overall.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:

1. Jonas Valanciunas:    1228.0    (projected team wins: 19)
2. Christian Wood:    1185.2    (projected team wins: 13)
3. Dejounte Murray:    1136.1    (projected team wins: 23)
4. Wendell Carter Jr.:    1038.8    (projected team wins: 16)
5. Jerami Grant:    943.0    (projected team wins: 17)
6. Cole Anthony:    939.3    (projected team wins: 16)
7. Mo Bamba:    884.6    (projected team wins: 16)
8. Jae'Sean Tate:    768.1    (projected team wins: 13)
9. Franz Wagner:    764.6    (projected team wins: 16)
10. Saddiq Bey:    755.2    (projected team wins: 17)
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    753.6    (projected team wins: 26)
12. Keldon Johnson:    736.7    (projected team wins: 23)
13. Domantas Sabonis:    729.1    (projected team wins: 35)
14. Nickeil Alexander-Walker:    709.3    (projected team wins: 19)
15. Anthony Davis:    696.5    (projected team wins: 39)
16. Harrison Barnes:    690.0    (projected team wins: 33)
17. Nikola Jokic:    684.4    (projected team wins: 39)
18. Luguentz Dort:    674.6    (projected team wins: 26)
19. Derrick White:    670.8    (projected team wins: 23)
20. Josh Hart:    670.5    (projected team wins: 19)

Currently not a single player is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.