NBA 2020 MVP race – final results

(Originally posted on Sunday, 19 July 2020)

The NBA decided that all individual awards, including the MVP award, will be based only on games played prior to the suspension of the 2019-20 season. This fact makes this season very different from the lockout-shortened seasons, because in the lockout-shortened seasons all teams played the same number of games. For the current season this is not true. Because my calculations are based on a reference point of team-wins I HAVE to calculate the final results the same way I did so far – as projections.

By the way the defensive player of the year is “obviously” Rudy Gobert – he stopped every NBA player from scoring any points for several months. :) Just kidding. I don't think it's Rudy's fault, because the epidemic was out of control anyway. I would even say that it was probably for the best of all NBA players and fans – they stayed at home as soon as possible. Good job Rudy! One could say that Rudy was a tool in the hands of God. Maybe a little blunt tool, but still a tool. :)

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

With different number of games played by every team I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team would play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the games played prior to the suspension of the 2019-20 season the final NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2519.4    (projected team wins: 67)
2. LeBron James:    2358.1    (projected team wins: 64)
3. James Harden:    2199.1    (projected team wins: 51)
4. Anthony Davis:    2190.6    (projected team wins: 64)
5. Nikola Jokic:    1818.1    (projected team wins: 54)
6. Khris Middleton:    1686.7    (projected team wins: 67)
7. Kawhi Leonard:    1634.1    (projected team wins: 56)
8. Luka Doncic:    1576.5    (projected team wins: 49)
9. Jayson Tatum:    1575.3    (projected team wins: 55)
10. Pascal Siakam:    1513.1    (projected team wins: 59)
11. Rudy Gobert:    1512.6    (projected team wins: 53)
12. Bam Adebayo:    1492.2    (projected team wins: 52)
13. Donovan Mitchell:    1487.1    (projected team wins: 53)
14. Domantas Sabonis:    1438.2    (projected team wins: 49)
15. Kyle Lowry:    1435.7    (projected team wins: 59)
16. Russell Westbrook:    1434.8    (projected team wins: 51)
17. Chris Paul:    1413.4    (projected team wins: 51)
18. Montrezl Harrell:    1366.2    (projected team wins: 56)
19. Jimmy Butler:    1327.8    (projected team wins: 52)
20. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    1311.3    (projected team wins: 51)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the winner of the race and LeBron James is second. James Harden is 3rd, but Anthony Davis is right behind him.


With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the games played prior to the suspension of the 2019-20 season the final NBA 2020 MFP list is this:

1. Trae Young:    1211.0    (projected team wins: 24)
2. Bradley Beal:    941.5    (projected team wins: 31)
3. Zach LaVine:    891.4    (projected team wins: 28)
4. Kevin Love:    846.9    (projected team wins: 24)
5. Devin Booker:    841.7    (projected team wins: 33)
6. Julius Randle:    839.2    (projected team wins: 26)
7. Damian Lillard:    834.8    (projected team wins: 36)
8. Collin Sexton:    819.7    (projected team wins: 24)
9. Karl-Anthony Towns:    786.0    (projected team wins: 24)
10. Devonte' Graham:    757.4    (projected team wins: 29)
11. John Collins:    733.4    (projected team wins: 24)
12. DeMar DeRozan:    723.2    (projected team wins: 35)
13. Terry Rozier:    704.1    (projected team wins: 29)
14. Hassan Whiteside:    699.5    (projected team wins: 36)
15. Eric Paschall:    665.5    (projected team wins: 19)
16. Brandon Ingram:    658.4    (projected team wins: 36)
17. Christian Wood:    649.5    (projected team wins: 25)
18. Tristan Thompson:    643.4    (projected team wins: 24)
19. CJ McCollum:    622.8    (projected team wins: 36)
20. Marquese Chriss:    615.0    (projected team wins: 19)

There is not a single player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.