NBA 2019 MVP race (part 9) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 3)

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 19 February 2019)

Part 9 = the end of week 18. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2412.6    (projected team wins: 62)
2. Kevin Durant:    2270.4    (projected team wins: 59)
3. James Harden:    2126.7    (projected team wins: 47)
4. Paul George:    2057.7    (projected team wins: 53)
5. Nikola Jokic:    1928.3    (projected team wins: 56)
6. Joel Embiid:    1911.9    (projected team wins: 52)
7. Stephen Curry:    1887.7    (projected team wins: 59)
8. Damian Lillard:    1674.8    (projected team wins: 49)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1594.5    (projected team wins: 60)
10. Russell Westbrook:    1564.3    (projected team wins: 53)
11. Klay Thompson:    1548.1    (projected team wins: 59)
12. Eric Bledsoe:    1463.0    (projected team wins: 62)
13. Ben Simmons:    1448.2    (projected team wins: 52)
14. Pascal Siakam:    1448.0    (projected team wins: 60)
15. Kyrie Irving:    1423.8    (projected team wins: 52)
16. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1422.5    (projected team wins: 39)
17. Khris Middleton:    1400.5    (projected team wins: 62)
18. Rudy Gobert:    1394.0    (projected team wins: 46)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge:    1319.8    (projected team wins: 46)
20. Malcolm Brogdon:    1303.9    (projected team wins: 62)
21. Serge Ibaka:    1300.6    (projected team wins: 60)
22. Nikola Vucevic:    1254.0    (projected team wins: 38)
23. Blake Griffin:    1250.3    (projected team wins: 38)
24. Kemba Walker:    1235.3    (projected team wins: 39)
25. Kyle Lowry:    1232.3    (projected team wins: 60)
26. Anthony Davis:    1231.9    (projected team wins: 36)
27. Jusuf Nurkic:    1223.4    (projected team wins: 49)
28. Steven Adams:    1218.3    (projected team wins: 53)
29. Domantas Sabonis:    1210.2    (projected team wins: 54)
30. Brook Lopez:    1195.5    (projected team wins: 62)

The order in the top-9 didn't change. The most important observation is that the MVP value of Giannis Antetokounmpo increased a little and the MVP value of James Harden decreased a little (his team's projected number of wins decreased by 1). Interestingly Paul George got quite close to the third place.

Please notice that some players disappeared from the list just because they were traded, for example Tobias Harris. There is no way of calculating MVP values for traded players AND, more importantly, when a team trades a player it means that the player isn't as valuable to his team as it may seem, right? The same goes for the MFP list.

With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:

1. Deandre Ayton:    1077.0    (projected team wins: 15)
2. Devin Booker:    984.1    (projected team wins: 15)
3. Zach LaVine:    948.0    (projected team wins: 20)
4. Bradley Beal:    844.4    (projected team wins: 34)
5. Jordan Clarkson:    830.1    (projected team wins: 17)
6. Anthony Davis:    821.3    (projected team wins: 36)
7. Karl-Anthony Towns:    766.0    (projected team wins: 39)
8. Enes Kanter:    755.3    (projected team wins: 16)
9. T.J. Warren:    748.8    (projected team wins: 15)
10. Mike Conley:    733.7    (projected team wins: 32)
11. Noah Vonleh:    727.6    (projected team wins: 16)
12. Jrue Holiday:    726.6    (projected team wins: 36)
13. Nikola Vucevic:    726.0    (projected team wins: 38)
14. Blake Griffin:    723.8    (projected team wins: 38)
15. Trae Young:    698.5    (projected team wins: 27)
16. Larry Nance:    689.0    (projected team wins: 17)
17. Kemba Walker:    665.1    (projected team wins: 39)
18. Collin Sexton:    658.3    (projected team wins: 17)
19. John Collins:    656.0    (projected team wins: 27)
20. Lauri Markkanen:    632.2    (projected team wins: 20)
21. Cedi Osman:    626.4    (projected team wins: 17)
22. Luka Doncic:    617.6    (projected team wins: 37)
23. Mikal Bridges:    614.0    (projected team wins: 15)
24. Andre Drummond:    610.7    (projected team wins: 38)
25. Josh Jackson:    600.2    (projected team wins: 15)
26. Julius Randle:    597.3    (projected team wins: 36)
27. James Harden:    588.2    (projected team wins: 47)
28. Richaun Holmes:    570.4    (projected team wins: 15)
29. Tristan Thompson:    550.9    (projected team wins: 17)
30. Emmanuel Mudiay:    527.6    (projected team wins: 16)

Notably, Bradley Beal and Jordan Clarkson got into the top-5.

There are currently as many as 6 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Anthony Davis (26th and 6th), Karl-Anthony Towns (16th and 7th), Nikola Vucevic (22nd and 13th), Blake Griffin (23rd and 14th), Kemba Walker (24th and 17th) and James Harden (3rd and 27th).