Wednesday 5 August 2015

The NBA GOAT list after the season 2020-21

(Originally posted on Saturday, 24 July 2021)

The present post features the NBA GOAT list according to my calculations done after the end of the 2020-21 season. The in-depth explanations can be found here:
The best NBA drafts and the GOAT list

All the data I used to create the present post I found on this site:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/

Originally I wanted to update all the calculation in that post of mine mentioned above, but the awesome player finder on the site
https://www.basketball-reference.com/
isn't working anymore (it now redirects you to another site that is paid and I am not going to pay for such things). It means that now I have to gather the data in a much more time-consuming way. I doubt if I will be able to update the best NBA drafts list because assigning draft year to every player would be even more time-consuming.

I marked active players with asterisks, depending on how quickly they can change their GOAT value in the future:
1. Players who have played less than 650 regular season games and less than 60 playoff games are marked with four asterisks (****) because their GOAT value can rise very quickly.
2. Players who have played at least 650 regular season games, but less than 60 playoff games are marked with three asterisks (***) because their GOAT value can rise relatively quickly.
3. Players who have played less than 650 regular season games, but at least 60 playoff games are marked with two asterisks (**) because their GOAT value can rise rather slowly.
4. Players who have played at least 650 regular season games and at least 60 playoff games are marked with one asterisk (*) because their GOAT value can rise very slowly.

Obviously there are some exceptions, but the players from the last group have the hardest time increasing their GOAT values because even if a player had a very good season, he would “use” this season to replace a different season (or seasons) of his that had been taken into account previously. It means that only the difference between the seasons would increase his GOAT value. And if this season were not good enough then his GOAT value would not change at all.


The 50 best NBA players in the seasons from 1977-78 to 2020-21 (including players drafted before 1977):

1. Michael Jordan:   32.7
2. LeBron James*:   32.5  (previously also 2nd)
3. Hakeem Olajuwon:   30.6
4. Kevin Durant*:   29.7  (previously 5th)
5. Larry Bird:   29.4
6. Shaquille O'Neal:   28.6
7. James Harden*:   28.5  (previously 8th)
8. Charles Barkley:   28.4
9. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar:   27.7
10. Magic Johnson:   27.6
11. Karl Malone:   27.5
12. Stephen Curry*:   27.4  (previously 13th)
13. Dirk Nowitzki:   27.1
14. Tim Duncan:   26.9
15. David Robinson:   26.8
16. Kobe Bryant:   26.7
17. Russell Westbrook*:   26.1  (previously also 17th)
18. Moses Malone:   25.7
19. Kawhi Leonard**:   25.7  (previously 24th)
20. Kevin Garnett:   25.5
21. Chris Paul*:   25.4  (previously 20th)
22. Giannis Antetokounmpo**:   25.1  (previously not on the list)
23. Dwyane Wade:   24.8
24. Patrick Ewing:   24.5
25. Clyde Drexler:   24.2
26. Damian Lillard*:   23.9  (previously 47th)
27. Allen Iverson:   23.5
28. Paul George*:   23.5  (previously 40th)
29. Kevin McHale:   23.2
30. Alex English:   23.0
31. Kevin Johnson:   22.9
32. John Stockton:   22.9
33. Julius Erving:   22.8
34. Dwight Howard*:   22.7  (previously 31st)
35. Isiah Thomas:   22.3
36. Scottie Pippen:   22.1
37. Carmelo Anthony*:   21.9  (previously 34th)
38. Paul Pierce:   21.9
39. Pau Gasol:   21.9
40. Gary Payton:   21.8
41. Steve Nash:   21.6
42. George Gervin:   21.5
43. Reggie Miller:   21.4
44. Ray Allen:   21.4
45. Shawn Marion:   21.2
46. Adrian Dantley:   21.2
47. Jason Kidd:   21.0
48. Chris Webber:   21.0
49. Kyrie Irving**:   21.0  (previously not on the list)
50. Vince Carter:   20.9

Amar'e Stoudemire (20.9) and Dominique Wilkins (20.8) were pushed out of the list by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kyrie Irving.

Wow! That was LOTS of movement on the GOAT list!

The 8 players closest to the list who played in the season 2019-20 are:

LaMarcus Aldridge (retired):   20.7
Blake Griffin*:   20.4
Jimmy Butler**:   20.3
Anthony Davis****:   20.3
Kyle Lowry*:   19.3
Nikola Jokic****:   19.2
Kevin Love*:   19.2
Marc Gasol*:   19.0

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