NBA 2020 MVP race – part 6

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 25 February 2020)

Part 6 = the end of week 18. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2689.0    (projected team wins: 70)
2. James Harden:    2344.3    (projected team wins: 53)
3. LeBron James:    2331.8    (projected team wins: 64)
4. Anthony Davis:    2204.3    (projected team wins: 64)
5. Nikola Jokic:    1935.8    (projected team wins: 56)
6. Khris Middleton:    1865.7    (projected team wins: 70)
7. Jayson Tatum:    1601.0    (projected team wins: 57)
8. Luka Doncic:    1574.7    (projected team wins: 49)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1573.4    (projected team wins: 55)
10. Rudy Gobert:    1506.3    (projected team wins: 52)
11. Pascal Siakam:    1506.1    (projected team wins: 60)
12. Bam Adebayo:    1497.6    (projected team wins: 52)
13. Russell Westbrook:    1476.0    (projected team wins: 53)
14. Donovan Mitchell:    1471.9    (projected team wins: 52)
15. Eric Bledsoe:    1410.5    (projected team wins: 70)
16. Kyle Lowry:    1401.3    (projected team wins: 60)
17. Damian Lillard:    1387.8    (projected team wins: 37)
18. Chris Paul:    1378.2    (projected team wins: 50)
19. Ben Simmons:    1376.6    (projected team wins: 51)
20. Kemba Walker:    1368.1    (projected team wins: 57)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear leader of the race. James Harden got back to the second place but his team would have to record a fantastic winning run to allow him to get significantly closer to Antetokounmpo.


With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:

1. Trae Young:    1232.3    (projected team wins: 24)
2. Bradley Beal:    963.0    (projected team wins: 29)
3. Zach LaVine:    961.8    (projected team wins: 28)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns:    923.2    (projected team wins: 23)
5. Damian Lillard:    862.7    (projected team wins: 37)
6. Julius Randle:    852.9    (projected team wins: 24)
7. Kevin Love:    835.2    (projected team wins: 23)
8. Devin Booker:    814.1    (projected team wins: 34)
9. Collin Sexton:    794.5    (projected team wins: 23)
10. Devonte' Graham:    790.8    (projected team wins: 28)
11. DeMar DeRozan:    722.5    (projected team wins: 35)
12. Terry Rozier:    717.6    (projected team wins: 28)
13. Tristan Thompson:    714.6    (projected team wins: 23)
14. Brandon Ingram:    663.3    (projected team wins: 36)
15. Buddy Hield:    656.1    (projected team wins: 34)
16. John Collins:    650.0    (projected team wins: 24)
17. Hassan Whiteside:    650.0    (projected team wins: 37)
18. Eric Paschall:    641.8    (projected team wins: 17)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge:    641.2    (projected team wins: 35)
20. Mitchell Robinson:    623.7    (projected team wins: 24)

Look at all these names! What a company! I think it shows that the league is incredibly rich with talent right now.

Currently there is one player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Damian Lillard. Right now he is 17th on the MVP list and 5th on the MFP list.