NBA 2020 MVP race – part 1

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 12 November 2019)

Welcome to the new edition of my mathematical predictions of the NBA MVP. This NBA season (2019-20) I will list only top-20 players in the race (instead of top-30) and I will update the list every 3 weeks (instead of every2 weeks). This way the list will be more focused on the best players and there will be bigger changes between the updates, especially towards the end of the season.

Part 1 = the end of week 3. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 3 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2601.8    (projected team wins: 57)
2. James Harden:    2566.9    (projected team wins: 57)
3. Kemba Walker:    2477.0    (projected team wins: 73)
4. Anthony Davis:    2466.9    (projected team wins: 64)
5. LeBron James:    2462.5    (projected team wins: 64)
6. Luka Doncic:    2063.3    (projected team wins: 49)
7. Pascal Siakam:    1982.9    (projected team wins: 57)
8. Gordon Hayward:    1857.8    (projected team wins: 73)
9. Jayson Tatum:    1855.4    (projected team wins: 73)
10. Devin Booker:    1805.3    (projected team wins: 55)
11. Donovan Mitchell:    1743.6    (projected team wins: 57)
12. Nikola Jokic:    1736.8    (projected team wins: 64)
13. Kawhi Leonard:    1629.4    (projected team wins: 57)
14. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1611.8    (projected team wins: 49)
15. Montrezl Harrell:    1563.4    (projected team wins: 57)
16. Malcolm Brogdon:    1540.9    (projected team wins: 49)
17. Russell Westbrook:    1533.9    (projected team wins: 57)
18. Andrew Wiggins:    1501.0    (projected team wins: 49)
19. Clint Capela:    1494.7    (projected team wins: 57)
20. Tobias Harris:    1490.2    (projected team wins: 55)

Wow! The very first list is already extremely interesting. Kemba Walker and Anthony Davis are 3rd and 4th respectively, but they play on much better teams right now, so it's not really surprising. On the other hand there are some players who ended up on the list with clearly weaker teams (Devin Booker and Malcolm Brogdon) or who were already doomed by many people (Andrew Wiggins).


With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 3 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:

1. Brandon Ingram:    1364.0    (projected team wins: 16)
2. Damian Lillard:    1216.0    (projected team wins: 33)
3. Bradley Beal:    1143.5    (projected team wins: 21)
4. Andre Drummond:    1091.1    (projected team wins: 30)
5. D'Angelo Russell:    1077.9    (projected team wins: 15)
6. Marcus Morris:    1012.0    (projected team wins: 16)
7. Thomas Bryant:    988.2    (projected team wins: 21)
8. Kyrie Irving:    982.3    (projected team wins: 36)
9. Nikola Vucevic:    976.6    (projected team wins: 25)
10. Trae Young:    965.3    (projected team wins: 27)
11. Josh Hart:    896.7    (projected team wins: 16)
12. Julius Randle:    863.0    (projected team wins: 16)
13. Eric Paschall:    832.4    (projected team wins: 15)
14. Jonathan Isaac:    807.6    (projected team wins: 25)
15. Zach LaVine:    791.8    (projected team wins: 25)
16. Kevin Love:    769.5    (projected team wins: 36)
17. Luke Kennard:    762.3    (projected team wins: 30)
18. Jrue Holiday:    755.1    (projected team wins: 16)
19. Jabari Parker:    752.1    (projected team wins: 27)
20. Wendell Carter:    738.4    (projected team wins: 25)

Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.