The NBA GOAT list after the season 2019-20

(Originally posted on Sunday, 15 November 2020)

The present post features the NBA GOAT list according to my calculations done after the end of the 2019-20 season. The previous list (calculated after the end of the 2018-19 season) can be found (together with in-depth explanations) here:
The best NBA drafts and the GOAT list

All the data I used to create the present post I found on these sites:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/
https://basketball.realgm.com/

Originally I wanted to update all the calculation in that post of mine mentioned above, but the awesome player finder on the site
https://www.basketball-reference.com/
isn't working anymore (it now redirects you to another site that is paid and I am not going to pay for such things). It means that now I have to gather the data player by player, which is extremely time-consuming. There is no way I would gather all the needed data for every active player, so there was no way to update the best NBA drafts list.

To update the GOAT list I had not only to recalculate all the GOAT values of active players that were previously on the GOAT list, but I also had to recalculate the GOAT values of some other active players who could possibly get onto to the GOAT list after this season. Please notice that by active players I mean players who actually played at leas 1 game this season. Kevin Durant didn't play any games this season, so his GOAT value remained unchanged.

I decided to recalculate the GOAT values of all the players who played at least 450 regular seasons games and at least 50 playoff games. Why such numbers? I based them on the numbers from the previous GOAT list:
1) on the previous list there were 2 players who had not reached the reference point of 650 regular season games: Kawhi Leonard (467 regular season games that far) and Paul George (604 regular season games that far),
2) on the previous list there were 2 players who didn’t reached the reference point of 60 playoff games: George Gervin (57 playoff games) and Dominique Wilkins (56 playoff games).

Such numbers come from the fact that in my way of calculating the GOAT values, the playoffs are valued 50% more than regular seasons. By the way, I found a perfect confirmation to my belief that the number of championship rings is not important when comparing two players. There was a very cool topic on the site
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2012988&start=80
titled “Why is Duncan universally consider better than Hakeem? ”. A person nicknamed “CptCrunch” wrote something that I was not able to phrase myself: “Duncan is not better. He is more accomplished.” Obviously a player can't accomplish anything without his teammates, right? Right!

Fun facts from this season (2019-20):
1. There were 529 players who played at least 1 regular season game.
2. Among these players (from the point 1) there were 68 players who have played at least 450 regular season games and at least 50 playoff games. I recalculated the GOAT values of all these players, because they should be quite close to their final GOAT value.
3. Among the players from the point 2 there were 8 players who have played less than 650 regular season games and less than 60 playoff games. Such players are marked with four asterisks (****) because their GOAT value could rise very quickly.
4. Among the players from the point 2 there were 11 players who have played at least 650 regular season games, but less than 60 playoff games. Such players are marked with three asterisks (***) because their GOAT value could rise relatively quickly.
5. Among the players from the point 2 there were 12 players who have played less than 650 regular season games, but at least 60 playoff games. Such players are marked with two asterisks (**) because their GOAT value could rise rather slowly.
6. Among the players from the point 2 there were 37 players who have played at least 650 regular season games and at least 60 playoff games. Such players are marked with one asterisk (*) because their GOAT value could rise very slowly.

Obviously there are some exceptions, but the players from the last group have the hardest time increasing their GOAT values because even if a player had a very good season, he would “use” this season to replace a different season (or seasons) of his that had been taken into account previously. It means that only the difference between the seasons would increase his GOAT value. And if this season were not good enough than his GOAT value would not change at all.


The 50 best NBA players in the seasons from 1977-78 to 2019-20 (including players drafted before 1977):

1. Michael Jordan:   32.7
2. LeBron James*:   32.5  (previously also 2nd)
3. Hakeem Olajuwon:   30.6
4. Larry Bird:   29.4
5. Kevin Durant:   29.0
6. Shaquille O'Neal:   28.6
7. Charles Barkley:   28.4
8. James Harden*:   28.2  (previously 14th)
9. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar:   27.7
10. Magic Johnson:   27.6
11. Karl Malone:   27.5
12. Dirk Nowitzki:   27.1
13. Stephen Curry*:   26.9  (previously 12th)
14. Tim Duncan:   26.9
15. David Robinson:   26.8
16. Kobe Bryant:   26.7
17. Russell Westbrook*:   25.9  (previously 18th)
18. Moses Malone:   25.7
19. Kevin Garnett:   25.5
20. Chris Paul*:   25.4  (previously also 20th)
21. Dwyane Wade:   24.8
22. Patrick Ewing:   24.5
23. Clyde Drexler:   24.2
24. Kawhi Leonard**:   23.9  (previously 41st)
25. Allen Iverson:   23.5
26. Kevin McHale:   23.2
27. Alex English:   23.0
28. Kevin Johnson:   22.9
29. John Stockton:   22.9
30. Julius Erving:   22.8
31. Dwight Howard*:   22.7  (previously 30th)
32. Isiah Thomas:   22.3
33. Scottie Pippen:   22.1
34. Carmelo Anthony*:   21.9  (previously 33rd)
35. Paul Pierce:   21.9
36. Pau Gasol:   21.9
37. Gary Payton:   21.8
38. Steve Nash:   21.6
39. George Gervin:   21.5
40. Paul George*:   21.5  (previously 49th)
41. Reggie Miller:   21.4
42. Ray Allen:   21.4
43. Shawn Marion:   21.2
44. Adrian Dantley:   21.2
45. Jason Kidd:   21.0
46. Chris Webber:   21.0
47. Damian Lillard****:   21.0  (previously not on the list)
48. Vince Carter*:   20.9  (previously 46th)
49. Amar'e Stoudemire:   20.9
50. Dominique Wilkins:   20.8

Shawn Kemp (20.8) was pushed out of the list by Damian Lillard.

I have to admit that the longevity of LeBron James is unbelievable, but my way of calculating the GOAT value doesn't really care about that. He has already played so many playoff games that he can be extremely “picky” when choosing the best playoffs amounting to 60 playoff games, so another very deep playoff run doesn't really change anything. If longevity were so important to the GOAT value then Karl Malone would be very close to the top, which wouldn't be right (and I say it as a great fan of Karl Malone).

The 7 players closest to the list who played in the season 2019-20 are:

LaMarcus Aldridge*:   20.7
Kyrie Irving**:   19.8
Jimmy Butler**:   19.5
Blake Griffin****:   19.2
Kyle Lowry*:   19.2
Kevin Love*:   19.1
Marc Gasol*:   19.0

Obviously there are 2 players who were not mentioned earlier, but who should eventually get into the top-50 list: Giannis Antetokounmpo**** and Anthony Davis****. Even though they played too few playoff games (43 and 34 respectively), I calculated their GOAT values anyway (18.0 and 18.9 respectively).