NBA 2020 MVP race – part 4

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 14 January 2020)

Part 4 = the end of week 12. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 12 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2765.8    (projected team wins: 70)
2. James Harden:    2684.3    (projected team wins: 56)
3. LeBron James:    2503.4    (projected team wins: 68)
4. Anthony Davis:    2365.1    (projected team wins: 68)
5. Luka Doncic:    1874.1    (projected team wins: 50)
6. Nikola Jokic:    1836.4    (projected team wins: 57)
7. Jayson Tatum:    1612.0    (projected team wins: 58)
8. Donovan Mitchell:    1608.4    (projected team wins: 57)
9. Bam Adebayo:    1593.3    (projected team wins: 57)
10. Rudy Gobert:    1579.8    (projected team wins: 57)
11. Jimmy Butler:    1579.1    (projected team wins: 57)
12. Khris Middleton:    1564.1    (projected team wins: 70)
13. Kemba Walker:    1511.4    (projected team wins: 58)
14. Russell Westbrook:    1457.4    (projected team wins: 56)
15. Domantas Sabonis:    1412.8    (projected team wins: 51)
16. Kawhi Leonard:    1402.2    (projected team wins: 55)
17. Montrezl Harrell:    1362.9    (projected team wins: 55)
18. Jaylen Brown:    1352.8    (projected team wins: 58)
19. Jamal Murray:    1348.5    (projected team wins: 57)
20. Bojan Bogdanovic:    1342.3    (projected team wins: 57)

James Harden got quite close to Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they both lost some of their value. LeBron James increased his value, overtook Anthony Davis and got significantly closer to the second place. There are also 2 new players in the top-10 – Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. Congratulations!


With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 12 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:

1. Trae Young:    1423.3    (projected team wins: 16)
2. Andre Drummond:    934.2    (projected team wins: 28)
3. Zach LaVine:    930.3    (projected team wins: 28)
4. Damian Lillard:    902.4    (projected team wins: 34)
5. Bradley Beal:    896.1    (projected team wins: 27)
6. Brandon Ingram:    872.1    (projected team wins: 30)
7. Julius Randle:    846.5    (projected team wins: 23)
8. Alec Burks:    836.5    (projected team wins: 18)
9. Devonte' Graham:    820.3    (projected team wins: 29)
10. Kevin Love:    788.3    (projected team wins: 25)
11. Devin Booker:    771.1    (projected team wins: 34)
12. Marcus Morris:    750.3    (projected team wins: 23)
13. Tristan Thompson:    727.0    (projected team wins: 25)
14. Terry Rozier:    723.7    (projected team wins: 29)
15. Hassan Whiteside:    710.9    (projected team wins: 34)
16. Jabari Parker:    708.4    (projected team wins: 16)
17. Buddy Hield:    701.1    (projected team wins: 31)
18. Glenn Robinson:    688.4    (projected team wins: 18)
19. Karl-Anthony Towns:    685.1    (projected team wins: 32)
20. Collin Sexton:    680.6    (projected team wins: 25)

Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.