(Originally posted on Thursday, 23 March 2023)
What a GREAT beat! And more!
Thursday 23 March 2023
Saturday 11 March 2023
NBA 2023 MVP race – part 1
(Originally posted on Saturday, 11 March 2023)
Part 1 ends with games played on 10 March 2023.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2022-23 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2023 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 2193.1 (projected team wins: 56)
2. Jayson Tatum: 2121.6 (projected team wins: 56)
3. Joel Embiid: 2019.5 (projected team wins: 55)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1917.1 (projected team wins: 60)
5. Domantas Sabonis: 1674.5 (projected team wins: 49)
6. Julius Randle: 1628.7 (projected team wins: 47)
7. Luka Doncic: 1613.0 (projected team wins: 42)
8. James Harden: 1514.6 (projected team wins: 55)
9. Donovan Mitchell: 1477.5 (projected team wins: 50)
10. Jaylen Brown: 1472.8 (projected team wins: 56)
11. Brook Lopez: 1442.1 (projected team wins: 60)
12. De'Aaron Fox: 1435.3 (projected team wins: 49)
13. Jrue Holiday: 1434.4 (projected team wins: 60)
14. Ja Morant: 1384.9 (projected team wins: 49)
15. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 1345.5 (projected team wins: 39)
16. Jalen Brunson: 1341.9 (projected team wins: 47)
17. Damian Lillard: 1320.6 (projected team wins: 38)
18. Trae Young: 1298.0 (projected team wins: 42)
19. Darius Garland: 1278.2 (projected team wins: 50)
20. Anthony Edwards: 1269.2 (projected team wins: 41)
Nikola Jokic is the leader of the race, but Jayson Tatum and Joel Embiid are very close. I doubt that Jokic will get third straight MVP award, so this time Embiid should be the winner. This year Tatum should wait the way Embiid had to wait the previous year. But with all those %^&$@$ voting, anything could happen – like De'Aaron Fox (12th on the list) and Anthony Edwards (20th on the list) almost missing this year's All Star Game!
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2023 MFP list is this:
1. Bojan Bogdanovic: 959.0 (projected team wins: 18)
2. Alperen Sengun: 919.2 (projected team wins: 19)
3. Jalen Green: 878.1 (projected team wins: 19)
4. Keldon Johnson: 830.0 (projected team wins: 21)
5. Damian Lillard: 764.6 (projected team wins: 38)
6. Kenyon Martin Jr.: 732.9 (projected team wins: 19)
7. Jaden Ivey: 728.9 (projected team wins: 18)
8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 724.5 (projected team wins: 39)
9. Terry Rozier: 716.1 (projected team wins: 27)
10. Luka Doncic: 691.3 (projected team wins: 42)
11. Nikola Vucevic: 689.1 (projected team wins: 37)
12. Jabari Smith Jr.: 678.3 (projected team wins: 19)
13. Kevin Porter Jr.: 674.3 (projected team wins: 19)
14. DeMar DeRozan: 665.7 (projected team wins: 37)
15. Zach LaVine: 665.3 (projected team wins: 37)
16. Lauri Markkanen: 661.4 (projected team wins: 39)
17. Tyrese Haliburton: 647.0 (projected team wins: 37)
18. P.J. Washington: 640.2 (projected team wins: 27)
19. Tre Jones: 636.7 (projected team wins: 21)
20. Kristaps Porzingis: 632.6 (projected team wins: 38)
Currently there are 3 players in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Luka Doncic (7th and 10th), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (15th and 8th) and Damian Lillard (17th and 5th). Doncic and Lillard must be really frustrated because their teams were supposed to have much better records.
Interestingly, the “Big Three” from the Chicago Bulls (LaVine, DeRozan and Vucevic) are all on the list, but it's Vucevic who has the highest value from them (he haven't missed a single game so far). I think (and hope) the Bulls will make a surprise run towards the end of the season.
Part 1 ends with games played on 10 March 2023.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2022-23 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2023 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 2193.1 (projected team wins: 56)
2. Jayson Tatum: 2121.6 (projected team wins: 56)
3. Joel Embiid: 2019.5 (projected team wins: 55)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1917.1 (projected team wins: 60)
5. Domantas Sabonis: 1674.5 (projected team wins: 49)
6. Julius Randle: 1628.7 (projected team wins: 47)
7. Luka Doncic: 1613.0 (projected team wins: 42)
8. James Harden: 1514.6 (projected team wins: 55)
9. Donovan Mitchell: 1477.5 (projected team wins: 50)
10. Jaylen Brown: 1472.8 (projected team wins: 56)
11. Brook Lopez: 1442.1 (projected team wins: 60)
12. De'Aaron Fox: 1435.3 (projected team wins: 49)
13. Jrue Holiday: 1434.4 (projected team wins: 60)
14. Ja Morant: 1384.9 (projected team wins: 49)
15. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 1345.5 (projected team wins: 39)
16. Jalen Brunson: 1341.9 (projected team wins: 47)
17. Damian Lillard: 1320.6 (projected team wins: 38)
18. Trae Young: 1298.0 (projected team wins: 42)
19. Darius Garland: 1278.2 (projected team wins: 50)
20. Anthony Edwards: 1269.2 (projected team wins: 41)
Nikola Jokic is the leader of the race, but Jayson Tatum and Joel Embiid are very close. I doubt that Jokic will get third straight MVP award, so this time Embiid should be the winner. This year Tatum should wait the way Embiid had to wait the previous year. But with all those %^&$@$ voting, anything could happen – like De'Aaron Fox (12th on the list) and Anthony Edwards (20th on the list) almost missing this year's All Star Game!
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2023 MFP list is this:
1. Bojan Bogdanovic: 959.0 (projected team wins: 18)
2. Alperen Sengun: 919.2 (projected team wins: 19)
3. Jalen Green: 878.1 (projected team wins: 19)
4. Keldon Johnson: 830.0 (projected team wins: 21)
5. Damian Lillard: 764.6 (projected team wins: 38)
6. Kenyon Martin Jr.: 732.9 (projected team wins: 19)
7. Jaden Ivey: 728.9 (projected team wins: 18)
8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 724.5 (projected team wins: 39)
9. Terry Rozier: 716.1 (projected team wins: 27)
10. Luka Doncic: 691.3 (projected team wins: 42)
11. Nikola Vucevic: 689.1 (projected team wins: 37)
12. Jabari Smith Jr.: 678.3 (projected team wins: 19)
13. Kevin Porter Jr.: 674.3 (projected team wins: 19)
14. DeMar DeRozan: 665.7 (projected team wins: 37)
15. Zach LaVine: 665.3 (projected team wins: 37)
16. Lauri Markkanen: 661.4 (projected team wins: 39)
17. Tyrese Haliburton: 647.0 (projected team wins: 37)
18. P.J. Washington: 640.2 (projected team wins: 27)
19. Tre Jones: 636.7 (projected team wins: 21)
20. Kristaps Porzingis: 632.6 (projected team wins: 38)
Currently there are 3 players in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Luka Doncic (7th and 10th), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (15th and 8th) and Damian Lillard (17th and 5th). Doncic and Lillard must be really frustrated because their teams were supposed to have much better records.
Interestingly, the “Big Three” from the Chicago Bulls (LaVine, DeRozan and Vucevic) are all on the list, but it's Vucevic who has the highest value from them (he haven't missed a single game so far). I think (and hope) the Bulls will make a surprise run towards the end of the season.
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