NBA 2020 MVP race – part 3

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 24 December 2019)

Part 3 = the end of week 9. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 9 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    3030.5    (projected team wins: 71)
2. James Harden:    2834.3    (projected team wins: 57)
3. Anthony Davis:    2481.8    (projected team wins: 66)
4. LeBron James:    2430.9    (projected team wins: 66)
5. Luka Doncic:    1975.6    (projected team wins: 54)
6. Nikola Jokic:    1812.6    (projected team wins: 59)
7. Kemba Walker:    1789.1    (projected team wins: 61)
8. Jayson Tatum:    1702.5    (projected team wins: 61)
9. Bam Adebayo:    1680.4    (projected team wins: 60)
10. Pascal Siakam:    1668.4    (projected team wins: 57)
11. Jimmy Butler:    1616.4    (projected team wins: 60)
12. Joel Embiid:    1579.7    (projected team wins: 56)
13. Russell Westbrook:    1548.1    (projected team wins: 57)
14. Domantas Sabonis:    1542.9    (projected team wins: 56)
15. Tobias Harris:    1502.6    (projected team wins: 56)
16. Jaylen Brown:    1457.4    (projected team wins: 61)
17. Montrezl Harrell:    1432.9    (projected team wins: 56)
18. Donovan Mitchell:    1408.7    (projected team wins: 49)
19. Clint Capela:    1404.9    (projected team wins: 57)
20. Jamal Murray:    1380.0    (projected team wins: 59)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear leader of the race, but James Harden is still hanging on. There is a new player in the top-10 – Bam Adebayo. Congratulations!


With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 9 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:

1. Trae Young:    1534.2    (projected team wins: 16)
2. Bradley Beal:    1202.4    (projected team wins: 25)
3. Brandon Ingram:    1107.2    (projected team wins: 21)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1053.0    (projected team wins: 28)
5. Jrue Holiday:    948.3    (projected team wins: 21)
6. Andre Drummond:    931.2    (projected team wins: 29)
7. Julius Randle:    928.8    (projected team wins: 19)
8. Jabari Parker:    904.0    (projected team wins: 16)
9. Marcus Morris:    877.3    (projected team wins: 19)
10. Devin Booker:    820.2    (projected team wins: 30)
11. Alec Burks:    807.8    (projected team wins: 19)
12. Zach LaVine:    801.8    (projected team wins: 31)
13. Davis Bertans:    799.2    (projected team wins: 25)
14. Andrew Wiggins:    793.5    (projected team wins: 28)
15. Kevin Love:    786.5    (projected team wins: 25)
16. Damian Lillard:    771.6    (projected team wins: 37)
17. J.J. Redick:    767.6    (projected team wins: 21)
18. Devonte' Graham:    747.6    (projected team wins: 32)
19. Tristan Thompson:    723.9    (projected team wins: 25)
20. DeMar DeRozan:    695.6    (projected team wins: 34)

The projected MFP value of Trae Young is insanely high. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins got on the list after their team lost 10 games in a row. And 3 weeks ago Karl-Anthony Towns was 11th on the MVP list!

On a side note: the San Antonio Spurs are just 1 game away from the 8th spot in the Western Conference with a record of just 12 wins in 29 games! Unbelievable!

Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.