NBA 2020 MVP race – part 5

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 4 February 2020)

Part 5 = the end of week 15. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 15 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2743.6    (projected team wins: 70)
2. LeBron James:    2275.4    (projected team wins: 63)
3. James Harden:    2274.6    (projected team wins: 52)
4. Anthony Davis:    2118.5    (projected team wins: 63)
5. Nikola Jokic:    1859.8    (projected team wins: 56)
6. Luka Doncic:    1774.2    (projected team wins: 51)
7. Khris Middleton:    1751.5    (projected team wins: 70)
8. Bam Adebayo:    1603.9    (projected team wins: 57)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1598.4    (projected team wins: 57)
10. Jimmy Butler:    1586.1    (projected team wins: 57)
11. Rudy Gobert:    1580.9    (projected team wins: 54)
12. Donovan Mitchell:    1548.3    (projected team wins: 54)
13. Damian Lillard:    1496.9    (projected team wins: 38)
14. Jayson Tatum:    1489.8    (projected team wins: 57)
15. Russell Westbrook:    1471.0    (projected team wins: 52)
16. Domantas Sabonis:    1460.1    (projected team wins: 51)
17. Kemba Walker:    1450.0    (projected team wins: 57)
18. Pascal Siakam:    1420.8    (projected team wins: 59)
19. Ben Simmons:    1397.4    (projected team wins: 50)
20. Montrezl Harrell:    1379.6    (projected team wins: 57)

Well, it should be “Race over, man. Race over!”, but I couldn't help myself and I just had to post the famous Hudson's line from my all-time favourite movie Aliens.

Giannis Antetokounmpo will win the MVP award. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have each other, so their chances to win the award are minimal. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo has Khris Middleton, but he (Middleton) has never been considered a superstar, unlike LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Recently James Harden had some VERY weak games. In the last 9 games he still averaged 27.7 PPG, but his overall scoring efficiency was negative. Well, his free-throw scoring efficiency was still positive, but his very low 3P% (0.260), combined with his huge number of 3PA per game (11.1) was heartbreaking. On top of that his team's projected number of wins decreased by 4, so overall his projected MVP value decreased by 409.7 !!! Game over, man. Game over!

Maybe this is the final step that is needed for James Harden to lead his team to the NBA finals (or maybe even to a ring) – he can/should now relax and focus on the playoffs.

There are 3 new players in the top-10 – Khris Middleton, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler. Congratulations!


With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 15 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:

1. Trae Young:    1298.6    (projected team wins: 21)
2. Bradley Beal:    969.5    (projected team wins: 28)
3. Kevin Love:    921.0    (projected team wins: 21)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns:    920.9    (projected team wins: 25)
5. Andre Drummond:    899.1    (projected team wins: 28)
6. Zach LaVine:    894.9    (projected team wins: 30)
7. Damian Lillard:    866.6    (projected team wins: 38)
8. Devonte' Graham:    849.6    (projected team wins: 26)
9. Devin Booker:    848.7    (projected team wins: 33)
10. Alec Burks:    847.1    (projected team wins: 19)
11. Julius Randle:    844.8    (projected team wins: 24)
12. Collin Sexton:    840.0    (projected team wins: 21)
13. Brandon Ingram:    791.7    (projected team wins: 33)
14. Terry Rozier:    790.0    (projected team wins: 26)
15. Andrew Wiggins:    765.6    (projected team wins: 25)
16. D'Angelo Russell:    760.9    (projected team wins: 19)
17. Tristan Thompson:    746.4    (projected team wins: 21)
18. Marcus Morris:    739.0    (projected team wins: 24)
19. Buddy Hield:    719.9    (projected team wins: 31)
20. Glenn Robinson:    706.6    (projected team wins: 19)

Currently there is one player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Damian Lillard. Recently he had a phenomenal series of games, but his team's projected number of games is still quite low, so he is very high on both lists – right now he is 13th on the MVP list and 7th on the MFP list. UNBELIEVABLE!