NBA 2020 MVP race – part 2

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 3 December 2019)

Part 2 = the end of week 6. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2019-20 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 6 the current NBA 2020 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    3064.2    (projected team wins: 70)
2. James Harden:    2770.6    (projected team wins: 56)
3. LeBron James:    2698.0    (projected team wins: 70)
4. Anthony Davis:    2558.0    (projected team wins: 70)
5. Luka Doncic:    2531.9    (projected team wins: 56)
6. Pascal Siakam:    2184.2    (projected team wins: 65)
7. Fred VanVleet:    1830.3    (projected team wins: 65)
8. Nikola Jokic:    1683.9    (projected team wins: 63)
9. Kemba Walker:    1637.4    (projected team wins: 60)
10. Jayson Tatum:    1601.4    (projected team wins: 60)
11. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1589.0    (projected team wins: 43)
12. Joel Embiid:    1588.5    (projected team wins: 59)
13. Montrezl Harrell:    1572.3    (projected team wins: 59)
14. Eric Bledsoe:    1569.8    (projected team wins: 70)
15. Bam Adebayo:    1554.4    (projected team wins: 60)
16. Lou Williams:    1549.7    (projected team wins: 59)
17. Jamal Murray:    1538.0    (projected team wins: 63)
18. Tobias Harris:    1504.8    (projected team wins: 59)
19. Kawhi Leonard:    1435.0    (projected team wins: 59)
20. Domantas Sabonis:    1421.1    (projected team wins: 53)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear leader of the race. Luka Doncic increased his MVP value significantly and got into the top-5. Interestingly Fred VanVleet is at the 7th place!


With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 6 the current NBA 2020 MFP list is this:

1. Trae Young:    1331.6    (projected team wins: 20)
2. Bradley Beal:    1161.5    (projected team wins: 27)
3. Marcus Morris:    973.6    (projected team wins: 16)
4. Andre Drummond:    973.3    (projected team wins: 29)
5. Brandon Ingram:    945.9    (projected team wins: 25)
6. Julius Randle:    938.3    (projected team wins: 16)
7. Eric Paschall:    925.4    (projected team wins: 15)
8. Damian Lillard:    920.2    (projected team wins: 33)
9. DeMar DeRozan:    916.2    (projected team wins: 27)
10. Kevin Love:    890.6    (projected team wins: 22)
11. Jabari Parker:    885.1    (projected team wins: 20)
12. Zach LaVine:    870.7    (projected team wins: 27)
13. Tristan Thompson:    856.5    (projected team wins: 22)
14. Jrue Holiday:    853.7    (projected team wins: 25)
15. LaMarcus Aldridge:    841.2    (projected team wins: 27)
16. Thomas Bryant:    776.7    (projected team wins: 27)
17. Alec Burks:    755.4    (projected team wins: 15)
18. Devonte' Graham:    753.0    (projected team wins: 30)
19. Glenn Robinson:    749.9    (projected team wins: 15)
20. Luke Kennard:    735.0    (projected team wins: 29)

It's strange to see DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge on the MFP list. In 2018 DeMar DeRozan was 7th on the MVP list (he was still playing for the Toronto Raptors then) and LaMarcus Aldridge was 18th on the MVP list. In 2019 DeMar DeRozan was 21st on the MVP list (he was already playing for the San Antonie Spurs) and LaMarcus Aldridge was 14th on the MVP list. Now the San Antonio Spurs are projected to win only 27 games, which seems insane. Almost evry player on their roster is playing worse than in the previous season and they lost Davis Bertans in a very unlucky way. Well, DeMar DeRozan is actually playing with better scoring efficiency, but he has less assists – he is no longer responsible for creating so much offense. Or his temmates are simply missing more shots and giving him less assists.

Currently there are no players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.