NBA 2021 MVP race – part 1

(Originally posted on Sunday, 17 January 2021)

Part 1 ends with games played on Friday 15 January 2021.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).

Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it.

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:

1. LeBron James:    1964.6    (projected team wins: 57)
2. Jaylen Brown:    1767.3    (projected team wins: 52)
3. Jayson Tatum:    1679.6    (projected team wins: 52)
4. Paul George:    1661.5    (projected team wins: 50)
5. Khris Middleton:    1647.3    (projected team wins: 50)
6. Malcolm Brogdon:    1642.3    (projected team wins: 48)
7. Domantas Sabonis:    1636.9    (projected team wins: 48)
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    1621.2    (projected team wins: 50)
9. CJ McCollum:    1611.7    (projected team wins: 42)
10. Anthony Davis:    1601.5    (projected team wins: 57)
11. Joel Embiid:    1592.7    (projected team wins: 50)
12. Nikola Jokic:    1539.5    (projected team wins: 36)
13. Damian Lillard:    1529.8    (projected team wins: 42)
14. Kawhi Leonard:    1497.7    (projected team wins: 50)
15. Luka Doncic:    1360.0    (projected team wins: 39)
16. Stephen Curry:    1344.9    (projected team wins: 36)
17. Donovan Mitchell:    1296.8    (projected team wins: 48)
18. Jrue Holiday:    1248.0    (projected team wins: 50)
19. Nikola Vucevic:    1240.5    (projected team wins: 36)
20. Mike Conley:    1225.9    (projected team wins: 48)

What a wild list! LeBron James is the first leader of the race, but this is the only “normal” thing about this list. Well, some people could say it's actually NOT normal that a person who is 36 years old were clearly the most valuable player in the NBA.

At the second place there is Jaylen Brown! But he is ahead of Jayson Tatum only because Tatum missed 1 game and the projection magnified this fact. Over time one missed game should be meaningless. Nevertheless the start of the season has been a huge success for both of them! Respect!

The following players are very close behind and some very good players are not even on the list, so the race should be quite interesting.

Please, notice that James Harden has already been traded, so he will be out of the race once he plays one game with his new team! Well, it actually already happened (on Saturday), but my calculations were based only on games played up to Friday.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:

1. Jerami Grant:    1268.1    (projected team wins: 13)
2. Bradley Beal:    1261.8    (projected team wins: 20)
3. Zach LaVine:    1016.7    (projected team wins: 24)
4. Fred VanVleet:    958.8    (projected team wins: 20)
5. Chris Boucher:    883.4    (projected team wins: 20)
6. Pascal Siakam:    855.4    (projected team wins: 20)
7. Brandon Ingram:    854.6    (projected team wins: 26)
8. Kyle Lowry:    847.2    (projected team wins: 20)
9. Julius Randle:    837.0    (projected team wins: 28)
10. Malik Beasley:    822.4    (projected team wins: 20)
11. D'Angelo Russell:    790.5    (projected team wins: 20)
12. Mason Plumlee:    766.3    (projected team wins: 13)
13. Nikola Jokic:    727.0    (projected team wins: 36)
14. James Harden:    703.8    (projected team wins: 29)
15. Christian Wood:    695.0    (projected team wins: 29)
16. Coby White:    681.5    (projected team wins: 24)
17. Thomas Bryant:    660.8    (projected team wins: 20)
18. Stephen Curry:    635.1    (projected team wins: 36)
19. Harrison Barnes:    630.6    (projected team wins: 28)
20. OG Anunoby:    629.0    (projected team wins: 20)

Currently there are 2 players who are in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Nikola Jokic (12th and 13th) and Stephen Curry (16th and 18th).

Please, notice that James Harden has already been traded, so he will be out of the list once he plays one game with his new team! Well, it actually already happened (on Saturday), but my calculations were based only on games played up to Friday.