Part 4 ends with games played on Saturday 8 May 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
In standard NBA season (82 games) I use the reference point of 60 team wins, but this season (72 games) I have to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736).
Before the 2020-21 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
ATTENTION! This season is different because of the pandemic, so numerous players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed. There's nothing I can do about it. HOWEVER this time I made also calculation for the per-game values (the second list below), which ignores the number of games played. It's definitely NOT correct because a player who have played in only 10 games can have a higher per-game value than his teammate who played in ALL games.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2021 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 2043.0 (projected team wins: 47)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1598.1 (projected team wins: 46)
3. Rudy Gobert: 1513.3 (projected team wins: 53)
4. Luka Doncic: 1488.9 (projected team wins: 42)
5. Damian Lillard: 1460.3 (projected team wins: 41)
6. Joel Embiid: 1459.8 (projected team wins: 50)
7. Devin Booker: 1444.2 (projected team wins: 52)
8. Chris Paul: 1443.2 (projected team wins: 52)
9. Stephen Curry: 1389.5 (projected team wins: 37)
10. Julius Randle: 1355.8 (projected team wins: 40)
11. Deandre Ayton: 1325.9 (projected team wins: 52)
12. Donovan Mitchell: 1325.7 (projected team wins: 53)
13. Kyrie Irving: 1313.1 (projected team wins: 47)
14. Khris Middleton: 1262.1 (projected team wins: 46)
15. Kawhi Leonard: 1259.5 (projected team wins: 48)
16. Tobias Harris: 1236.6 (projected team wins: 50)
17. Paul George: 1183.7 (projected team wins: 48)
18. Jayson Tatum: 1163.0 (projected team wins: 38)
19. Michael Porter Jr.: 1144.1 (projected team wins: 47)
20. Trae Young: 1132.5 (projected team wins: 39)
Nikola Jokic is the CLEAR leader of the race! Giannis Antetokounmpo is second and Rudy Gobert is third (!) but they are too much behind in the race to be seriously considered contenders.
Just out of curiosity I made calculation for the per-game values, but, as always, I took into account teams' records (in exactly the same way as for the total values):
1. Nikola Jokic: 28.4 (raw per-game value: 32.0 in 68 games)
2. Joel Embiid: 28.1 (raw per-game value: 29.8 in 49 games)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 26.1 (raw per-game value: 30.1 in 57 games)
4. Kevin Durant: 25.8 (raw per-game value: 29.0 in 31 games)
5. Kyrie Irving: 24.3 (raw per-game value: 27.4 in 51 games)
6. Kawhi Leonard: 23.9 (raw per-game value: 26.4 in 49 games)
7. Donovan Mitchell: 23.6 (raw per-game value: 23.6 in 53 games)
8. Luka Doncic: 22.7 (raw per-game value: 28.7 in 61 games)
9. Damian Lillard: 21.9 (raw per-game value: 28.3 in 63 games)
10. Stephen Curry: 21.9 (raw per-game value: 31.3 in 60 games)
11. Paul George: 21.6 (raw per-game value: 23.8 in 51 games)
12. Devin Booker: 21.3 (raw per-game value: 21.7 in 63 games)
13. Rudy Gobert: 21.3 (raw per-game value: 21.3 in 67 games)
14. Chris Paul: 20.3 (raw per-game value: 20.7 in 66 games)
15. LeBron James: 19.9 (raw per-game value: 26.4 in 43 games)
16. Tobias Harris: 19.8 (raw per-game value: 21.0 in 59 games)
17. Julius Randle: 19.1 (raw per-game value: 25.3 in 66 games)
18. Michael Porter Jr.: 18.6 (raw per-game value: 21.0 in 58 games)
19. Jimmy Butler: 18.5 (raw per-game value: 25.1 in 49 games)
20. Jamal Murray: 18.4 (raw per-game value: 20.8 in 48 games)
Clearly this is a wrong way to analyse the MVP race because Kevin Durant is 4th even though he has played in relatively few games, so his team's record is not really his achievement. Nevertheless the leader of the race is the same! Nikola Jokic is a double winner!
“Who's the winner of the MVP race?”
“Mr Jokic, we cannot ignore you anymore, so please tell us what you think about the MVP race.”
“Who is ice-cold?”
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2021 MFP list is this:
1. Karl-Anthony Towns: 792.1 (projected team wins: 21)
2. Anthony Edwards: 698.6 (projected team wins: 21)
3. Jerami Grant: 680.2 (projected team wins: 21)
4. Collin Sexton: 673.3 (projected team wins: 23)
5. Zion Williamson: 656.0 (projected team wins: 32)
6. Zach LaVine: 645.8 (projected team wins: 30)
7. Christian Wood: 639.3 (projected team wins: 17)
8. Jae'Sean Tate: 618.8 (projected team wins: 17)
9. Bradley Beal: 602.5 (projected team wins: 34)
10. Stephen Curry: 600.9 (projected team wins: 37)
11. De'Aaron Fox: 593.9 (projected team wins: 31)
12. Russell Westbrook: 588.3 (projected team wins: 34)
13. Domantas Sabonis: 580.6 (projected team wins: 33)
14. Brandon Ingram: 580.3 (projected team wins: 32)
15. Pascal Siakam: 568.9 (projected team wins: 29)
16. Mason Plumlee: 559.9 (projected team wins: 21)
17. Saddiq Bey: 527.3 (projected team wins: 21)
18. Fred VanVleet: 525.7 (projected team wins: 29)
19. Darius Garland: 522.1 (projected team wins: 23)
20. John Wall: 507.3 (projected team wins: 17)
Currently there is 1 player who is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Stephen Curry (9th and 10th).
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