NBA 2024 MVP race – part 2

(Originally posted on Saturday 17 February 2024)

Part 2 ends with games played on 15 February 2024.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2023-24 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2024 MVP race list is this:

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    2436.5    (projected team wins: 56)
2. Nikola Jokic:    2340.9    (projected team wins: 54)
3. Jayson Tatum:    2295.2    (projected team wins: 64)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2178.5    (projected team wins: 51)
5. Luka Doncic:    2013.3    (projected team wins: 48)
6. Anthony Edwards:    1819.0    (projected team wins: 58)
7. Donovan Mitchell:    1794.9    (projected team wins: 56)
8. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1793.8    (projected team wins: 58)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1781.7    (projected team wins: 56)
10. Domantas Sabonis:    1778.0    (projected team wins: 47)
11. Kevin Durant:    1688.6    (projected team wins: 49)
12. Anthony Davis:    1654.7    (projected team wins: 44)
13. Jalen Brunson:    1633.0    (projected team wins: 49)
14. Paul George:    1618.0    (projected team wins: 56)
15. Chet Holmgren:    1604.7    (projected team wins: 56)
16. Jaylen Brown:    1602.6    (projected team wins: 64)
17. James Harden:    1584.5    (projected team wins: 56)
18. Joel Embiid:    1560.0    (projected team wins: 49)
19. Damian Lillard:    1547.4    (projected team wins: 51)
20. Rudy Gobert:    1535.0    (projected team wins: 58)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the leader of the race! Respect! However, if I had to guess I would say that the race will be won by Jayson Tatum. We'll see.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2024 MFP list is this:

1. Victor Wembanyama:    1243.4    (projected team wins: 16)
2. Kyle Kuzma:    1207.7    (projected team wins: 14)
3. Cade Cunningham:    1076.5    (projected team wins: 12)
4. Tyus Jones:    1035.6    (projected team wins: 14)
5. Scottie Barnes:    1011.7    (projected team wins: 28)
6. Deni Avdija:    1011.1    (projected team wins: 14)
7. Devin Vassell:    997.0    (projected team wins: 16)
8. Miles Bridges:    936.9    (projected team wins: 20)
9. Jalen Duren:    901.0    (projected team wins: 12)
10. Keldon Johnson:    899.7    (projected team wins: 16)
11. Jaden Ivey:    849.1    (projected team wins: 12)
12. Jerami Grant:    822.0    (projected team wins: 23)
13. Jordan Poole:    799.8    (projected team wins: 14)
14. Trae Young:    783.8    (projected team wins: 36)
15. Jeremy Sochan:    769.4    (projected team wins: 16)
16. Jaren Jackson Jr.:    769.2    (projected team wins: 29)
17. Mikal Bridges:    764.5    (projected team wins: 32)
18. Brandon Miller:    741.5    (projected team wins: 20)
19. Alperen Sengun:    740.1    (projected team wins: 36)
20. Ausar Thompson:    721.0    (projected team wins: 12)

Victor Wembanyama is at the top of the MFP list. What a terrible season by the San Antonio Spurs, but it's obviously not the fault of Wembanyama.

There is not a single player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.