Monday, 22 April 2024

2024 World Snooker Championship has just started!

(Originally posted on Monday 22 April 2024)

2024 World Snooker Championship has just started and already there were 5 results that I liked very much! These players already advanced to the second round:

David Gilbert
Stephen Maguire
Shaun Murphy
Judd Trump
Stuart Bingham

There are several other players I like very much who can still advance to the second round, so it can get only better. Something tells me it will be a truly great tournament overall!

Saturday, 13 April 2024

NBA 2024 MVP race – part 3

(Originally posted on Saturday 13 April 2024)

Part 3 ends with games played on 12 April 2024. Only 1 game left, so these results are almost final results.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players


Before the 2023-24 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2024 MVP race list is this:

1. Nikola Jokic:    2524.9    (projected team wins: 57)
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    2215.9    (projected team wins: 57)
3. Jayson Tatum:    2188.8    (projected team wins: 64)
4. Luka Doncic:    2172.5    (projected team wins: 51)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    1995.3    (projected team wins: 50)
6. Anthony Edwards:    1800.8    (projected team wins: 57)
7. Anthony Davis:    1755.5    (projected team wins: 47)
8. Domantas Sabonis:    1699.4    (projected team wins: 46)
9. Jalen Brunson:    1694.7    (projected team wins: 50)
10. Kevin Durant:    1658.0    (projected team wins: 49)
11. Chet Holmgren:    1598.8    (projected team wins: 57)
12. Jaylen Brown:    1590.6    (projected team wins: 64)
13. LeBron James:    1543.6    (projected team wins: 47)
14. Damian Lillard:    1490.1    (projected team wins: 50)
15. Kawhi Leonard:    1480.1    (projected team wins: 52)
16. Derrick White:    1478.1    (projected team wins: 64)
17. Paul George:    1477.6    (projected team wins: 52)
18. Devin Booker:    1475.2    (projected team wins: 49)
19. Rudy Gobert:    1470.6    (projected team wins: 57)
20. Stephen Curry:    1449.9    (projected team wins: 46)

Nikola Jokic will be the winner of the race. One (last) game of the season won't change anything in this regard. Towards the end of the race Shai Gilgeous-Alexander suffered an injury, which ruined his chances. Otherwise he would be very close to winning. Jayson Tatum's team has the best record, but Tatum's per-game value is too low. It doesn't matter because his team is focused on winning the NBA championship. Luka Doncic's team record is too low plus he missed 11 games (13.4% of the season, which is 1/7.5th) and this is why Doncic is only 4th.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2024 MFP list is this:

1. Victor Wembanyama:    1170.0    (projected team wins: 21)
2. Kyle Kuzma:    1085.5    (projected team wins: 15)
3. Cade Cunningham:    1019.9    (projected team wins: 14)
4. Miles Bridges:    962.2    (projected team wins: 20)
5. Deni Avdija:    952.3    (projected team wins: 15)
6. Jordan Poole:    902.6    (projected team wins: 15)
7. Jalen Duren:    875.5    (projected team wins: 14)
8. Devin Vassell:    845.0    (projected team wins: 21)
9. Scottie Barnes:    817.0    (projected team wins: 25)
10. Tyus Jones:    810.9    (projected team wins: 15)
11. Jaden Ivey:    807.6    (projected team wins: 14)
12. Brandon Miller:    789.1    (projected team wins: 20)
13. Corey Kispert:    762.7    (projected team wins: 15)
14. Jaren Jackson Jr.:    742.8    (projected team wins: 27)
15. Keldon Johnson:    719.2    (projected team wins: 21)
16. Mikal Bridges:    706.5    (projected team wins: 32)
17. Deandre Ayton:    704.1    (projected team wins: 21)
18. Dejounte Murray:    696.5    (projected team wins: 36)
19. Tre Jones:    688.4    (projected team wins: 21)
20. Collin Sexton:    679.9    (projected team wins: 31)

Victor Wembanyama is at the top of the MFP list. I bet many people thought he would make a great turnaround for the Spurs, like David Robinson did in his rookie year. Well, Robinson had also Willie Anderson (10th pick from the previous draft) and Sean Elliot (3rd pick from the current draft), while he was 1st pick from the draft 2 years before (he had to serve 2 years of military service), so such expectations for Wembanyama were clearly unfair. But Gregg Popovich didn't help with achieving a better team record either.

There is not a single player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.