NBA 2025 MVP race – part 1

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 8 April 2025)

Part 1 ends with games played on 6 April 2025. Only 4 games left (more or less), so these results are almost final results.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2024-25 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2025 MVP race list is this:

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    2866.3    (projected team wins: 67)
2. Nikola Jokic:    2146.2    (projected team wins: 49)
3. Jayson Tatum:    2066.4    (projected team wins: 61)
4. Donovan Mitchell:    1845.8    (projected team wins: 65)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1784.6    (projected team wins: 53)
6. Evan Mobley:    1738.1    (projected team wins: 65)
7. Darius Garland:    1711.3    (projected team wins: 65)
8. Jalen Williams:    1710.3    (projected team wins: 67)
9. Jarrett Allen:    1685.8    (projected team wins: 65)
10. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    1637.2    (projected team wins: 46)
11. Anthony Edwards:    1603.6    (projected team wins: 48)
12. LeBron James:    1566.1    (projected team wins: 50)
13. Derrick White:    1505.9    (projected team wins: 61)
14. James Harden:    1498.2    (projected team wins: 48)
15. Alperen Sengun:    1495.9    (projected team wins: 54)
16. Tyrese Haliburton:    1441.6    (projected team wins: 49)
17. Jalen Brunson:    1427.3    (projected team wins: 53)
18. Josh Hart:    1405.0    (projected team wins: 53)
19. Ivica Zubac:    1394.8    (projected team wins: 48)
20. Pascal Siakam:    1382.5    (projected team wins: 49)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the winner of the race – the remaining few games won't change anything in this regard. There are many new faces on the list (when compared to previous seasons), but to me the most surprising one is Josh Hart! Respect to all of them!


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2025 MFP list is this:

1. Jordan Poole:    927.1    (projected team wins: 18)
2. Miles Bridges:    903.1    (projected team wins: 20)
3. Tyrese Maxey:    799.8    (projected team wins: 24)
4. Walker Kessler:    788.8    (projected team wins: 17)
5. Keyonte George:    768.3    (projected team wins: 17)
6. LaMelo Ball:    764.7    (projected team wins: 20)
7. Collin Sexton:    754.2    (projected team wins: 17)
8. Trey Murphy III:    746.6    (projected team wins: 22)
9. Devin Booker:    713.9    (projected team wins: 37)
10. Tyler Herro:    706.5    (projected team wins: 37)
11. CJ McCollum:    705.0    (projected team wins: 22)
12. Cameron Johnson:    655.6    (projected team wins: 26)
13. Kevin Durant:    651.3    (projected team wins: 37)
14. Scottie Barnes:    650.2    (projected team wins: 30)
15. Bub Carrington:    649.1    (projected team wins: 18)
16. Trae Young:    645.8    (projected team wins: 39)
17. Bam Adebayo:    641.2    (projected team wins: 37)
18. Alex Sarr:    635.2    (projected team wins: 18)
19. Lauri Markkanen:    624.4    (projected team wins: 17)
20. Yves Missi:    611.3    (projected team wins: 22)

There is not a single player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.

I LOVE the Miami Heat front office!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Originally posted on Monday, 27 January 2025)

I have just learned that Miami Heat suspended Jimmy Butler indefinitely! Reportedly he walked out of a shootaround after learning that he would be coming off the bench from now on.

I hope that no team will trade for him and that he will waste the rest of this season without pay! In that case it would be VERY interesting if he would opt-in to his player option for the next season.

I LOVE the Miami Heat front office!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!