NBA 2024 MVP race – part 3

(Originally posted on Saturday 13 April 2024)

Part 3 ends with games played on 12 April 2024. Only 1 game left, so these results are almost final results.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2023-24 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2024 MVP race list is this:

1. Nikola Jokic:    2524.9    (projected team wins: 57)
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    2215.9    (projected team wins: 57)
3. Jayson Tatum:    2188.8    (projected team wins: 64)
4. Luka Doncic:    2172.5    (projected team wins: 51)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    1995.3    (projected team wins: 50)
6. Anthony Edwards:    1800.8    (projected team wins: 57)
7. Anthony Davis:    1755.5    (projected team wins: 47)
8. Domantas Sabonis:    1699.4    (projected team wins: 46)
9. Jalen Brunson:    1694.7    (projected team wins: 50)
10. Kevin Durant:    1658.0    (projected team wins: 49)
11. Chet Holmgren:    1598.8    (projected team wins: 57)
12. Jaylen Brown:    1590.6    (projected team wins: 64)
13. LeBron James:    1543.6    (projected team wins: 47)
14. Damian Lillard:    1490.1    (projected team wins: 50)
15. Kawhi Leonard:    1480.1    (projected team wins: 52)
16. Derrick White:    1478.1    (projected team wins: 64)
17. Paul George:    1477.6    (projected team wins: 52)
18. Devin Booker:    1475.2    (projected team wins: 49)
19. Rudy Gobert:    1470.6    (projected team wins: 57)
20. Stephen Curry:    1449.9    (projected team wins: 46)

Nikola Jokic will be the winner of the race. One (last) game of the season won't change anything in this regard. Towards the end of the race Shai Gilgeous-Alexander suffered an injury, which ruined his chances. Otherwise he would be very close to winning. Jayson Tatum's team has the best record, but Tatum's per-game value is too low. It doesn't matter because his team is focused on winning the NBA championship. Luka Doncic's team record is too low plus he missed 11 games (13.4% of the season, which is 1/7.5th) and this is why Doncic is only 4th.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2024 MFP list is this:

1. Victor Wembanyama:    1170.0    (projected team wins: 21)
2. Kyle Kuzma:    1085.5    (projected team wins: 15)
3. Cade Cunningham:    1019.9    (projected team wins: 14)
4. Miles Bridges:    962.2    (projected team wins: 20)
5. Deni Avdija:    952.3    (projected team wins: 15)
6. Jordan Poole:    902.6    (projected team wins: 15)
7. Jalen Duren:    875.5    (projected team wins: 14)
8. Devin Vassell:    845.0    (projected team wins: 21)
9. Scottie Barnes:    817.0    (projected team wins: 25)
10. Tyus Jones:    810.9    (projected team wins: 15)
11. Jaden Ivey:    807.6    (projected team wins: 14)
12. Brandon Miller:    789.1    (projected team wins: 20)
13. Corey Kispert:    762.7    (projected team wins: 15)
14. Jaren Jackson Jr.:    742.8    (projected team wins: 27)
15. Keldon Johnson:    719.2    (projected team wins: 21)
16. Mikal Bridges:    706.5    (projected team wins: 32)
17. Deandre Ayton:    704.1    (projected team wins: 21)
18. Dejounte Murray:    696.5    (projected team wins: 36)
19. Tre Jones:    688.4    (projected team wins: 21)
20. Collin Sexton:    679.9    (projected team wins: 31)

Victor Wembanyama is at the top of the MFP list. I bet many people thought he would make a great turnaround for the Spurs, like David Robinson did in his rookie year. Well, Robinson had also Willie Anderson (10th pick from the previous draft) and Sean Elliot (3rd pick from the current draft), while he was 1st pick from the draft 2 years before (he had to serve 2 years of military service), so such expectations for Wembanyama were clearly unfair. But Gregg Popovich didn't help with achieving a better team record either.

There is not a single player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.

NBA 2024 MVP race – part 2

(Originally posted on Saturday 17 February 2024)

Part 2 ends with games played on 15 February 2024.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2023-24 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2024 MVP race list is this:

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    2436.5    (projected team wins: 56)
2. Nikola Jokic:    2340.9    (projected team wins: 54)
3. Jayson Tatum:    2295.2    (projected team wins: 64)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2178.5    (projected team wins: 51)
5. Luka Doncic:    2013.3    (projected team wins: 48)
6. Anthony Edwards:    1819.0    (projected team wins: 58)
7. Donovan Mitchell:    1794.9    (projected team wins: 56)
8. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1793.8    (projected team wins: 58)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1781.7    (projected team wins: 56)
10. Domantas Sabonis:    1778.0    (projected team wins: 47)
11. Kevin Durant:    1688.6    (projected team wins: 49)
12. Anthony Davis:    1654.7    (projected team wins: 44)
13. Jalen Brunson:    1633.0    (projected team wins: 49)
14. Paul George:    1618.0    (projected team wins: 56)
15. Chet Holmgren:    1604.7    (projected team wins: 56)
16. Jaylen Brown:    1602.6    (projected team wins: 64)
17. James Harden:    1584.5    (projected team wins: 56)
18. Joel Embiid:    1560.0    (projected team wins: 49)
19. Damian Lillard:    1547.4    (projected team wins: 51)
20. Rudy Gobert:    1535.0    (projected team wins: 58)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the leader of the race! Respect! However, if I had to guess I would say that the race will be won by Jayson Tatum. We'll see.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2024 MFP list is this:

1. Victor Wembanyama:    1243.4    (projected team wins: 16)
2. Kyle Kuzma:    1207.7    (projected team wins: 14)
3. Cade Cunningham:    1076.5    (projected team wins: 12)
4. Tyus Jones:    1035.6    (projected team wins: 14)
5. Scottie Barnes:    1011.7    (projected team wins: 28)
6. Deni Avdija:    1011.1    (projected team wins: 14)
7. Devin Vassell:    997.0    (projected team wins: 16)
8. Miles Bridges:    936.9    (projected team wins: 20)
9. Jalen Duren:    901.0    (projected team wins: 12)
10. Keldon Johnson:    899.7    (projected team wins: 16)
11. Jaden Ivey:    849.1    (projected team wins: 12)
12. Jerami Grant:    822.0    (projected team wins: 23)
13. Jordan Poole:    799.8    (projected team wins: 14)
14. Trae Young:    783.8    (projected team wins: 36)
15. Jeremy Sochan:    769.4    (projected team wins: 16)
16. Jaren Jackson Jr.:    769.2    (projected team wins: 29)
17. Mikal Bridges:    764.5    (projected team wins: 32)
18. Brandon Miller:    741.5    (projected team wins: 20)
19. Alperen Sengun:    740.1    (projected team wins: 36)
20. Ausar Thompson:    721.0    (projected team wins: 12)

Victor Wembanyama is at the top of the MFP list. What a terrible season by the San Antonio Spurs, but it's obviously not the fault of Wembanyama.

There is not a single player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.

NBA 2024 MVP race – part 1

(Originally posted on Tuesday 26 December 2023)

Part 1 ends with games played on 23 December 2023.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2023-24 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2024 MVP race list is this:

1. Joel Embiid:    2701.7    (projected team wins: 59)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2537.9    (projected team wins: 62)
3. Nikola Jokic:    2455.1    (projected team wins: 56)
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    2338.5    (projected team wins: 55)
5. Jayson Tatum:    2217.6    (projected team wins: 64)
6. Damian Lillard:    2089.5    (projected team wins: 62)
7. Tyrese Maxey:    2089.1    (projected team wins: 59)
8. Luka Doncic:    2078.1    (projected team wins: 48)
9. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1990.0    (projected team wins: 64)
10. Anthony Edwards:    1831.1    (projected team wins: 64)
11. Domantas Sabonis:    1717.3    (projected team wins: 50)
12. Jaylen Brown:    1715.4    (projected team wins: 64)
13. Rudy Gobert:    1647.8    (projected team wins: 64)
14. Anthony Davis:    1621.0    (projected team wins: 44)
15. Chet Holmgren:    1616.1    (projected team wins: 55)
16. Derrick White:    1571.0    (projected team wins: 64)
17. Jalen Brunson:    1561.8    (projected team wins: 47)
18. Kawhi Leonard:    1543.1    (projected team wins: 48)
19. LeBron James:    1528.9    (projected team wins: 44)
20. De'Aaron Fox:    1482.0    (projected team wins: 50)

Early results are always too optimistic, but very interesting nevertheless. To me the most notable things are that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 4th and Tyrese Maxey is 7th.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2024 MFP list is this:

1. Cade Cunningham:    1435.2    (projected team wins: 6)
2. Kyle Kuzma:    1291.2    (projected team wins: 15)
3. Victor Wembanyama:    1229.3    (projected team wins: 12)
4. Keldon Johnson:    1142.3    (projected team wins: 12)
5. Desmond Bane:    1057.4    (projected team wins: 26)
6. Scottie Barnes:    989.8    (projected team wins: 31)
7. Tyus Jones:    967.4    (projected team wins: 15)
8. Zach Collins:    946.7    (projected team wins: 12)
9. Trae Young:    935.6    (projected team wins: 34)
10. Ausar Thompson:    926.0    (projected team wins: 6)
11. Jaren Jackson Jr.:    914.8    (projected team wins: 26)
12. Daniel Gafford:    890.2    (projected team wins: 15)
13. Devin Vassell:    885.9    (projected team wins: 12)
14. Jerami Grant:    874.5    (projected team wins: 21)
15. Deni Avdija:    867.7    (projected team wins: 15)
16. Isaiah Stewart:    853.4    (projected team wins: 6)
17. Pascal Siakam:    827.1    (projected team wins: 31)
18. Jordan Poole:    822.1    (projected team wins: 15)
19. Terry Rozier:    777.0    (projected team wins: 21)
20. Jeremy Sochan:    771.2    (projected team wins: 12)

Victor Wembanyama is 3rd on the MFP list, mostly because his team won only 4 games out of 28 played so far. It doesn't speak well about Gregg Popovich at all (I am pretty sure that he also has a big influence on the front office of his team, so he's responsible for the “weak team” anyway). As far as pure coaching is concerned, for comparison, Ime Udoka coached his team to 15 wins in 27 games, which is a knock-out against Popovich.

There is not a single player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.