(Originally posted on Thursday, 11 April 2019)
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
According to the data from the whole 2018-2019 season the final NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. James Harden: 2377.5 (team wins: 53)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2241.1 (team wins: 60)
3. Kevin Durant: 1979.9 (team wins: 57)
4. Stephen Curry: 1819.7 (team wins: 57)
5. Damian Lillard: 1810.6 (team wins: 53)
6. Nikola Jokic: 1808.9 (team wins: 54)
7. Paul George: 1759.2 (team wins: 49)
8. Joel Embiid: 1599.0 (team wins: 51)
9. Russell Westbrook: 1554.4 (team wins: 49)
10. Rudy Gobert: 1517.8 (team wins: 50)
11. Kawhi Leonard: 1517.0 (team wins: 58)
12. Klay Thompson: 1439.3 (team wins: 57)
13. Pascal Siakam: 1433.4 (team wins: 58)
14. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1422.9 (team wins: 48)
15. Khris Middleton: 1412.2 (team wins: 60)
16. Ben Simmons: 1397.5 (team wins: 51)
17. Nikola Vucevic: 1381.3 (team wins: 42)
18. Eric Bledsoe: 1373.7 (team wins: 60)
19. Kyrie Irving: 1361.7 (team wins: 49)
20. Clint Capela: 1288.4 (team wins: 53)
21. DeMar DeRozan: 1280.3 (team wins: 48)
22. Donovan Mitchell: 1276.4 (team wins: 50)
23. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1276.0 (team wins: 36)
24. Kemba Walker: 1265.4 (team wins: 39)
25. Jusuf Nurkic: 1221.2 (team wins: 53)
26. Andre Drummond: 1214.1 (team wins: 41)
27. Brook Lopez: 1214.0 (team wins: 60)
28. Blake Griffin: 1198.4 (team wins: 41)
29. Serge Ibaka: 1183.9 (team wins: 58)
30. Jamal Murray: 1175.5 (team wins: 54)
James Harden is the winner of the race. The final margin is larger than projected 9 days ago because James Harden's team won 53 games instead of projected 52, Giannis Antetokounmpo missed 2 additional games and his team won 60 games instead of projected 61.
Please remember that the values above already take into account the teams' records. James Harden “raw” total values are HUGE. He missed ONLY 4 games and still had awesome per-game averages! James Harden is the ONLY player EVER to have per-game averages of at least 34.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists AND he finished with MUCH better averages than these – he actually had the per-game averages of 36.1 points, 6.6 rebounds and 7.5 assists. This is a record that would be VERY hard to beat.
Please notice also that the “raw” per-game value of James Harden (34.5) is the highest since the individual turnovers were introduced (since 1977). Michael Jordan had 33.9 in the season 1988-89 and 33.4 in the season 1987-88. No other player had more than 33.0 since 1977. James Harden's regular season has been truly historic! (Giannis Antetokounmpo “raw” per-game value is 31.1 – still very high, but clearly weaker than Harden's.)
According to the data from the whole 2018-2019 season the final NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Devin Booker: 1013.9 (team wins: 19)
2. Bradley Beal: 933.1 (team wins: 32)
3. Deandre Ayton: 924.2 (team wins: 19)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns: 850.7 (team wins: 36)
5. Zach LaVine: 815.2 (team wins: 22)
6. Jordan Clarkson: 776.8 (team wins: 19)
7. Anthony Davis: 762.9 (team wins: 33)
8. Trae Young: 759.5 (team wins: 29)
9. Collin Sexton: 721.1 (team wins: 19)
10. Julius Randle: 688.5 (team wins: 33)
11. Kemba Walker: 681.4 (team wins: 39)
12. Luka Doncic: 679.2 (team wins: 33)
13. Mike Conley: 671.4 (team wins: 33)
14. Jrue Holiday: 667.5 (team wins: 33)
15. Cedi Osman: 664.1 (team wins: 19)
16. Larry Nance: 661.8 (team wins: 19)
17. John Collins: 652.7 (team wins: 29)
18. Lauri Markkanen: 632.8 (team wins: 22)
19. LeBron James: 596.9 (team wins: 37)
20. Nikola Vucevic: 592.0 (team wins: 42)
21. Mitchell Robinson: 589.6 (team wins: 17)
22. Noah Vonleh: 583.0 (team wins: 17)
23. Mikal Bridges: 575.9 (team wins: 19)
24. Andre Drummond: 562.6 (team wins: 41)
25. Buddy Hield: 558.4 (team wins: 39)
26. Blake Griffin: 555.4 (team wins: 41)
27. Josh Jackson: 554.0 (team wins: 19)
28. Damyean Dotson: 547.8 (team wins: 17)
29. Emmanuel Mudiay: 547.3 (team wins: 17)
30. Kevin Knox: 544.7 (team wins: 17)
There are 5 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Karl-Anthony Towns (23th and 4th), Kemba Walker (24th and 11th), Nikola Vucevic (17th and 20th), Andre Drummond (26th and 24th) and Blake Griffin (28th and 26th).
Showing posts with label 11c – NBA 2019 MVP race. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 11c – NBA 2019 MVP race. Show all posts
Sunday, 2 August 2015
NBA 2019 MVP race (part 12) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 6)
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 2 April 2019)
Part 12 = the end of week 24. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 24 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. James Harden: 2323.3 (projected team wins: 52)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2301.4 (projected team wins: 61)
3. Kevin Durant: 1986.9 (projected team wins: 56)
4. Nikola Jokic: 1891.7 (projected team wins: 55)
5. Stephen Curry: 1821.6 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Damian Lillard: 1808.8 (projected team wins: 52)
7. Paul George: 1707.7 (projected team wins: 47)
8. Joel Embiid: 1680.1 (projected team wins: 52)
9. Rudy Gobert: 1531.8 (projected team wins: 50)
10. Kawhi Leonard: 1503.6 (projected team wins: 58)
11. Klay Thompson: 1465.7 (projected team wins: 56)
12. Ben Simmons: 1459.9 (projected team wins: 52)
13. Russell Westbrook: 1458.5 (projected team wins: 47)
14. Khris Middleton: 1427.7 (projected team wins: 61)
15. Pascal Siakam: 1423.1 (projected team wins: 58)
16. Eric Bledsoe: 1415.6 (projected team wins: 61)
17. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1383.6 (projected team wins: 47)
18. Kyrie Irving: 1351.8 (projected team wins: 48)
19. Nikola Vucevic: 1322.8 (projected team wins: 40)
20. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1309.9 (projected team wins: 36)
21. Jusuf Nurkic: 1275.9 (projected team wins: 52)
22. Brook Lopez: 1261.8 (projected team wins: 61)
23. DeMar DeRozan: 1259.3 (projected team wins: 47)
24. Blake Griffin: 1259.3 (projected team wins: 42)
25. Donovan Mitchell: 1256.2 (projected team wins: 50)
26. Clint Capela: 1238.7 (projected team wins: 52)
27. Andre Drummond: 1231.9 (projected team wins: 42)
28. Jamal Murray: 1192.2 (projected team wins: 55)
29. Kyle Lowry: 1187.6 (projected team wins: 58)
30. Serge Ibaka: 1181.2 (projected team wins: 58)
James Harden advanced (finally) to the first place. He is having a historic season offensively and he clearly deserves the MVP award. Since the NBA merged with the ABA (since 1976) only 1 player ONCE had a higher points-per-game average. It was Michael Jordan in the season 1986-87, BUT James Harden has now a clearly better scoring/shooting efficiency than Jordan had then. James Harden is also the ONLY player EVER to have per-game averages of at least 34.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists. Currently he has per-game averages of 36.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 7.6 assists.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is having a historic season too. Since the NBA merged with the ABA (since 1976) he is the ONLY player in that time to have per-game averages of at least 26.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists. Currently he has per-game averages of 27.4 points, 12.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists. However, in earlier seasons (before the season 1976-77) 4 other players had this (or much better) kind of averages (Wilt Chamberlain twice).
To me the per-game averages of James Harden are a little more impressive, but I have to admit that Giannis Antetokounmpo is a better defender. The voting should be very close.
Interestingly, Rudy Gobert advanced to the 9th place.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 24 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Devin Booker: 1060.4 (projected team wins: 19)
2. Deandre Ayton: 971.6 (projected team wins: 19)
3. Bradley Beal: 880.2 (projected team wins: 34)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns: 873.3 (projected team wins: 36)
5. Zach LaVine: 857.0 (projected team wins: 22)
6. Anthony Davis: 772.3 (projected team wins: 34)
7. Jordan Clarkson: 772.2 (projected team wins: 20)
8. Trae Young: 730.2 (projected team wins: 30)
9. Kemba Walker: 730.0 (projected team wins: 37)
10. Mike Conley: 715.0 (projected team wins: 33)
11. Collin Sexton: 695.1 (projected team wins: 20)
12. Luka Doncic: 693.9 (projected team wins: 33)
13. Jrue Holiday: 675.8 (projected team wins: 34)
14. Julius Randle: 669.8 (projected team wins: 34)
15. Lauri Markkanen: 665.3 (projected team wins: 22)
16. Nikola Vucevic: 661.4 (projected team wins: 40)
17. Cedi Osman: 639.8 (projected team wins: 20)
18. John Collins: 635.8 (projected team wins: 30)
19. LeBron James: 635.7 (projected team wins: 37)
20. Noah Vonleh: 635.3 (projected team wins: 16)
21. Larry Nance: 620.0 (projected team wins: 20)
22. Emmanuel Mudiay: 583.3 (projected team wins: 16)
23. Mitchell Robinson: 575.4 (projected team wins: 16)
24. Damyean Dotson: 573.6 (projected team wins: 16)
25. Mikal Bridges: 570.6 (projected team wins: 19)
26. Kevin Knox: 543.5 (projected team wins: 16)
27. Blake Griffin: 539.7 (projected team wins: 42)
28. Buddy Hield: 536.2 (projected team wins: 40)
29. Josh Jackson: 530.2 (projected team wins: 19)
30. Andre Drummond: 527.9 (projected team wins: 42)
There are currently 4 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Karl-Anthony Towns (20th and 4th), Nikola Vucevic (19th and 16th), Blake Griffin (24th and 27th) and Andre Drummond (27th and 30th).
Part 12 = the end of week 24. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 24 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. James Harden: 2323.3 (projected team wins: 52)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2301.4 (projected team wins: 61)
3. Kevin Durant: 1986.9 (projected team wins: 56)
4. Nikola Jokic: 1891.7 (projected team wins: 55)
5. Stephen Curry: 1821.6 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Damian Lillard: 1808.8 (projected team wins: 52)
7. Paul George: 1707.7 (projected team wins: 47)
8. Joel Embiid: 1680.1 (projected team wins: 52)
9. Rudy Gobert: 1531.8 (projected team wins: 50)
10. Kawhi Leonard: 1503.6 (projected team wins: 58)
11. Klay Thompson: 1465.7 (projected team wins: 56)
12. Ben Simmons: 1459.9 (projected team wins: 52)
13. Russell Westbrook: 1458.5 (projected team wins: 47)
14. Khris Middleton: 1427.7 (projected team wins: 61)
15. Pascal Siakam: 1423.1 (projected team wins: 58)
16. Eric Bledsoe: 1415.6 (projected team wins: 61)
17. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1383.6 (projected team wins: 47)
18. Kyrie Irving: 1351.8 (projected team wins: 48)
19. Nikola Vucevic: 1322.8 (projected team wins: 40)
20. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1309.9 (projected team wins: 36)
21. Jusuf Nurkic: 1275.9 (projected team wins: 52)
22. Brook Lopez: 1261.8 (projected team wins: 61)
23. DeMar DeRozan: 1259.3 (projected team wins: 47)
24. Blake Griffin: 1259.3 (projected team wins: 42)
25. Donovan Mitchell: 1256.2 (projected team wins: 50)
26. Clint Capela: 1238.7 (projected team wins: 52)
27. Andre Drummond: 1231.9 (projected team wins: 42)
28. Jamal Murray: 1192.2 (projected team wins: 55)
29. Kyle Lowry: 1187.6 (projected team wins: 58)
30. Serge Ibaka: 1181.2 (projected team wins: 58)
James Harden advanced (finally) to the first place. He is having a historic season offensively and he clearly deserves the MVP award. Since the NBA merged with the ABA (since 1976) only 1 player ONCE had a higher points-per-game average. It was Michael Jordan in the season 1986-87, BUT James Harden has now a clearly better scoring/shooting efficiency than Jordan had then. James Harden is also the ONLY player EVER to have per-game averages of at least 34.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists. Currently he has per-game averages of 36.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 7.6 assists.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is having a historic season too. Since the NBA merged with the ABA (since 1976) he is the ONLY player in that time to have per-game averages of at least 26.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists. Currently he has per-game averages of 27.4 points, 12.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists. However, in earlier seasons (before the season 1976-77) 4 other players had this (or much better) kind of averages (Wilt Chamberlain twice).
To me the per-game averages of James Harden are a little more impressive, but I have to admit that Giannis Antetokounmpo is a better defender. The voting should be very close.
Interestingly, Rudy Gobert advanced to the 9th place.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 24 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Devin Booker: 1060.4 (projected team wins: 19)
2. Deandre Ayton: 971.6 (projected team wins: 19)
3. Bradley Beal: 880.2 (projected team wins: 34)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns: 873.3 (projected team wins: 36)
5. Zach LaVine: 857.0 (projected team wins: 22)
6. Anthony Davis: 772.3 (projected team wins: 34)
7. Jordan Clarkson: 772.2 (projected team wins: 20)
8. Trae Young: 730.2 (projected team wins: 30)
9. Kemba Walker: 730.0 (projected team wins: 37)
10. Mike Conley: 715.0 (projected team wins: 33)
11. Collin Sexton: 695.1 (projected team wins: 20)
12. Luka Doncic: 693.9 (projected team wins: 33)
13. Jrue Holiday: 675.8 (projected team wins: 34)
14. Julius Randle: 669.8 (projected team wins: 34)
15. Lauri Markkanen: 665.3 (projected team wins: 22)
16. Nikola Vucevic: 661.4 (projected team wins: 40)
17. Cedi Osman: 639.8 (projected team wins: 20)
18. John Collins: 635.8 (projected team wins: 30)
19. LeBron James: 635.7 (projected team wins: 37)
20. Noah Vonleh: 635.3 (projected team wins: 16)
21. Larry Nance: 620.0 (projected team wins: 20)
22. Emmanuel Mudiay: 583.3 (projected team wins: 16)
23. Mitchell Robinson: 575.4 (projected team wins: 16)
24. Damyean Dotson: 573.6 (projected team wins: 16)
25. Mikal Bridges: 570.6 (projected team wins: 19)
26. Kevin Knox: 543.5 (projected team wins: 16)
27. Blake Griffin: 539.7 (projected team wins: 42)
28. Buddy Hield: 536.2 (projected team wins: 40)
29. Josh Jackson: 530.2 (projected team wins: 19)
30. Andre Drummond: 527.9 (projected team wins: 42)
There are currently 4 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Karl-Anthony Towns (20th and 4th), Nikola Vucevic (19th and 16th), Blake Griffin (24th and 27th) and Andre Drummond (27th and 30th).
NBA 2019 MVP race (part 11) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 5)
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 19 March 2019)
Part 11 = the end of week 22. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 22 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2397.1 (projected team wins: 61)
2. James Harden: 2270.4 (projected team wins: 52)
3. Kevin Durant: 2015.0 (projected team wins: 56)
4. Nikola Jokic: 1928.0 (projected team wins: 56)
5. Stephen Curry: 1801.1 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Paul George: 1790.8 (projected team wins: 49)
7. Joel Embiid: 1743.3 (projected team wins: 53)
8. Damian Lillard: 1731.4 (projected team wins: 50)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1513.5 (projected team wins: 58)
10. Russell Westbrook: 1495.9 (projected team wins: 49)
11. Ben Simmons: 1491.0 (projected team wins: 53)
12. Klay Thompson: 1486.5 (projected team wins: 56)
13. Rudy Gobert: 1451.6 (projected team wins: 48)
14. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1426.5 (projected team wins: 49)
15. Kyrie Irving: 1425.8 (projected team wins: 50)
16. Khris Middleton: 1419.4 (projected team wins: 61)
17. Pascal Siakam: 1416.3 (projected team wins: 58)
18. Eric Bledsoe: 1407.2 (projected team wins: 61)
19. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1354.6 (projected team wins: 37)
20. DeMar DeRozan: 1302.5 (projected team wins: 49)
21. Blake Griffin: 1288.8 (projected team wins: 42)
22. Jusuf Nurkic: 1279.5 (projected team wins: 50)
23. Nikola Vucevic: 1273.3 (projected team wins: 38)
24. Malcolm Brogdon: 1247.5 (projected team wins: 61)
25. CJ McCollum: 1247.5 (projected team wins: 50)
26. Kyle Lowry: 1227.6 (projected team wins: 58)
27. Andre Drummond: 1214.2 (projected team wins: 42)
28. Brook Lopez: 1211.6 (projected team wins: 61)
29. Clint Capela: 1201.6 (projected team wins: 52)
30. Bradley Beal: 1196.2 (projected team wins: 35)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the leader of the race, but James Harden got quite close to him. It seems to me that one of them will get the award.
Interestingly, Stephen Curry got back to the top-5 (he missed 11 games in the November 2018).
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 22 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Deandre Ayton: 989.9 (projected team wins: 19)
2. Devin Booker: 983.8 (projected team wins: 19)
3. Zach LaVine: 904.0 (projected team wins: 23)
4. Bradley Beal: 854.4 (projected team wins: 35)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns: 842.0 (projected team wins: 37)
6. Anthony Davis: 787.2 (projected team wins: 35)
7. Trae Young: 753.5 (projected team wins: 28)
8. Jordan Clarkson: 738.3 (projected team wins: 21)
9. Nikola Vucevic: 737.2 (projected team wins: 38)
10. Mike Conley: 728.8 (projected team wins: 33)
11. Kemba Walker: 718.9 (projected team wins: 37)
12. Luka Doncic: 705.8 (projected team wins: 33)
13. Jrue Holiday: 694.3 (projected team wins: 35)
14. Noah Vonleh: 689.0 (projected team wins: 16)
15. LeBron James: 680.1 (projected team wins: 36)
16. John Collins: 668.4 (projected team wins: 28)
17. Lauri Markkanen: 657.2 (projected team wins: 23)
18. Collin Sexton: 654.1 (projected team wins: 21)
19. Julius Randle: 651.3 (projected team wins: 35)
20. Cedi Osman: 637.4 (projected team wins: 21)
21. Larry Nance: 580.9 (projected team wins: 21)
22. Mikal Bridges: 568.0 (projected team wins: 19)
23. Damyean Dotson: 565.1 (projected team wins: 16)
24. T.J. Warren: 559.1 (projected team wins: 19)
25. Emmanuel Mudiay: 554.2 (projected team wins: 16)
26. Blake Griffin: 552.3 (projected team wins: 42)
27. Josh Jackson: 544.4 (projected team wins: 19)
28. Buddy Hield: 534.2 (projected team wins: 40)
29. Kevin Knox: 521.8 (projected team wins: 16)
30. Andre Drummond: 520.4 (projected team wins: 42)
The top-6 didn't change.
There are currently 5 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Bradley Beal (30th and 4th), Karl-Anthony Towns (19th and 5th), Nikola Vucevic (23rd and 9th), Blake Griffin (21st and 26th) and Andre Drummond (27th and 30th).
Part 11 = the end of week 22. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 22 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2397.1 (projected team wins: 61)
2. James Harden: 2270.4 (projected team wins: 52)
3. Kevin Durant: 2015.0 (projected team wins: 56)
4. Nikola Jokic: 1928.0 (projected team wins: 56)
5. Stephen Curry: 1801.1 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Paul George: 1790.8 (projected team wins: 49)
7. Joel Embiid: 1743.3 (projected team wins: 53)
8. Damian Lillard: 1731.4 (projected team wins: 50)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1513.5 (projected team wins: 58)
10. Russell Westbrook: 1495.9 (projected team wins: 49)
11. Ben Simmons: 1491.0 (projected team wins: 53)
12. Klay Thompson: 1486.5 (projected team wins: 56)
13. Rudy Gobert: 1451.6 (projected team wins: 48)
14. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1426.5 (projected team wins: 49)
15. Kyrie Irving: 1425.8 (projected team wins: 50)
16. Khris Middleton: 1419.4 (projected team wins: 61)
17. Pascal Siakam: 1416.3 (projected team wins: 58)
18. Eric Bledsoe: 1407.2 (projected team wins: 61)
19. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1354.6 (projected team wins: 37)
20. DeMar DeRozan: 1302.5 (projected team wins: 49)
21. Blake Griffin: 1288.8 (projected team wins: 42)
22. Jusuf Nurkic: 1279.5 (projected team wins: 50)
23. Nikola Vucevic: 1273.3 (projected team wins: 38)
24. Malcolm Brogdon: 1247.5 (projected team wins: 61)
25. CJ McCollum: 1247.5 (projected team wins: 50)
26. Kyle Lowry: 1227.6 (projected team wins: 58)
27. Andre Drummond: 1214.2 (projected team wins: 42)
28. Brook Lopez: 1211.6 (projected team wins: 61)
29. Clint Capela: 1201.6 (projected team wins: 52)
30. Bradley Beal: 1196.2 (projected team wins: 35)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the leader of the race, but James Harden got quite close to him. It seems to me that one of them will get the award.
Interestingly, Stephen Curry got back to the top-5 (he missed 11 games in the November 2018).
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 22 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Deandre Ayton: 989.9 (projected team wins: 19)
2. Devin Booker: 983.8 (projected team wins: 19)
3. Zach LaVine: 904.0 (projected team wins: 23)
4. Bradley Beal: 854.4 (projected team wins: 35)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns: 842.0 (projected team wins: 37)
6. Anthony Davis: 787.2 (projected team wins: 35)
7. Trae Young: 753.5 (projected team wins: 28)
8. Jordan Clarkson: 738.3 (projected team wins: 21)
9. Nikola Vucevic: 737.2 (projected team wins: 38)
10. Mike Conley: 728.8 (projected team wins: 33)
11. Kemba Walker: 718.9 (projected team wins: 37)
12. Luka Doncic: 705.8 (projected team wins: 33)
13. Jrue Holiday: 694.3 (projected team wins: 35)
14. Noah Vonleh: 689.0 (projected team wins: 16)
15. LeBron James: 680.1 (projected team wins: 36)
16. John Collins: 668.4 (projected team wins: 28)
17. Lauri Markkanen: 657.2 (projected team wins: 23)
18. Collin Sexton: 654.1 (projected team wins: 21)
19. Julius Randle: 651.3 (projected team wins: 35)
20. Cedi Osman: 637.4 (projected team wins: 21)
21. Larry Nance: 580.9 (projected team wins: 21)
22. Mikal Bridges: 568.0 (projected team wins: 19)
23. Damyean Dotson: 565.1 (projected team wins: 16)
24. T.J. Warren: 559.1 (projected team wins: 19)
25. Emmanuel Mudiay: 554.2 (projected team wins: 16)
26. Blake Griffin: 552.3 (projected team wins: 42)
27. Josh Jackson: 544.4 (projected team wins: 19)
28. Buddy Hield: 534.2 (projected team wins: 40)
29. Kevin Knox: 521.8 (projected team wins: 16)
30. Andre Drummond: 520.4 (projected team wins: 42)
The top-6 didn't change.
There are currently 5 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Bradley Beal (30th and 4th), Karl-Anthony Towns (19th and 5th), Nikola Vucevic (23rd and 9th), Blake Griffin (21st and 26th) and Andre Drummond (27th and 30th).
NBA 2019 MVP race (part 10) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 4)
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 5 March 2019)
Part 10 = the end of week 20. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 20 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2375.6 (projected team wins: 62)
2. James Harden: 2178.1 (projected team wins: 49)
3. Kevin Durant: 2151.8 (projected team wins: 57)
4. Nikola Jokic: 1903.0 (projected team wins: 55)
5. Paul George: 1888.1 (projected team wins: 51)
6. Stephen Curry: 1844.9 (projected team wins: 57)
7. Joel Embiid: 1760.2 (projected team wins: 52)
8. Damian Lillard: 1728.9 (projected team wins: 51)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1545.9 (projected team wins: 59)
10. Russell Westbrook: 1539.7 (projected team wins: 51)
11. Klay Thompson: 1491.9 (projected team wins: 57)
12. Ben Simmons: 1463.5 (projected team wins: 52)
13. Pascal Siakam: 1447.0 (projected team wins: 59)
14. Eric Bledsoe: 1444.5 (projected team wins: 62)
15. Khris Middleton: 1424.5 (projected team wins: 62)
16. Rudy Gobert: 1421.0 (projected team wins: 47)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1386.6 (projected team wins: 38)
18. Kyrie Irving: 1363.7 (projected team wins: 49)
19. Malcolm Brogdon: 1333.4 (projected team wins: 62)
20. Blake Griffin: 1314.2 (projected team wins: 41)
21. Jusuf Nurkic: 1312.2 (projected team wins: 51)
22. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1286.6 (projected team wins: 45)
23. Nikola Vucevic: 1278.9 (projected team wins: 38)
24. Kyle Lowry: 1264.3 (projected team wins: 59)
25. CJ McCollum: 1252.0 (projected team wins: 51)
26. Serge Ibaka: 1248.0 (projected team wins: 59)
27. Brook Lopez: 1209.2 (projected team wins: 62)
28. Anthony Davis: 1208.1 (projected team wins: 37)
29. Kemba Walker: 1200.4 (projected team wins: 38)
30. DeMar DeRozan: 1174.9 (projected team wins: 45)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the clear leader of the race. James Harden climbed to the second place, but Kevin Durant is right behind him. Paul George missed some games and his team's projected number of wins decreased by 2, so his MVP value decreased considerably.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 20 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Deandre Ayton: 1024.4 (projected team wins: 18)
2. Devin Booker: 945.1 (projected team wins: 18)
3. Zach LaVine: 916.3 (projected team wins: 23)
4. Bradley Beal: 871.6 (projected team wins: 34)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns: 802.8 (projected team wins: 38)
6. Anthony Davis: 751.0 (projected team wins: 37)
7. Jordan Clarkson: 744.1 (projected team wins: 21)
8. Nikola Vucevic: 740.4 (projected team wins: 38)
9. Trae Young: 739.0 (projected team wins: 28)
10. Mike Conley: 722.6 (projected team wins: 32)
11. Noah Vonleh: 715.5 (projected team wins: 17)
12. Jrue Holiday: 701.3 (projected team wins: 37)
13. Kemba Walker: 695.0 (projected team wins: 38)
14. Lauri Markkanen: 661.2 (projected team wins: 23)
15. Luka Doncic: 654.7 (projected team wins: 35)
16. T.J. Warren: 634.4 (projected team wins: 18)
17. John Collins: 631.2 (projected team wins: 28)
18. Larry Nance: 624.9 (projected team wins: 21)
19. Cedi Osman: 616.8 (projected team wins: 21)
20. LeBron James: 614.3 (projected team wins: 38)
21. Blake Griffin: 609.0 (projected team wins: 41)
22. Collin Sexton: 599.9 (projected team wins: 21)
23. Julius Randle: 588.1 (projected team wins: 37)
24. Mikal Bridges: 578.7 (projected team wins: 18)
25. Josh Jackson: 555.6 (projected team wins: 18)
26. Andre Drummond: 537.0 (projected team wins: 41)
27. Emmanuel Mudiay: 534.3 (projected team wins: 17)
28. Dewayne Dedmon: 527.8 (projected team wins: 28)
29. Richaun Holmes: 525.5 (projected team wins: 18)
30. Allonzo Trier: 513.8 (projected team wins: 17)
Notably, Karl-Anthony Towns got into the top-5 and LeBron James is 20th!
There are currently 5 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Karl-Anthony Towns (17th and 5th), Anthony Davis (28th and 6th), Nikola Vucevic (23rd and 8th), Kemba Walker (29th and 13th) and Blake Griffin (20th and 21st).
Part 10 = the end of week 20. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 20 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2375.6 (projected team wins: 62)
2. James Harden: 2178.1 (projected team wins: 49)
3. Kevin Durant: 2151.8 (projected team wins: 57)
4. Nikola Jokic: 1903.0 (projected team wins: 55)
5. Paul George: 1888.1 (projected team wins: 51)
6. Stephen Curry: 1844.9 (projected team wins: 57)
7. Joel Embiid: 1760.2 (projected team wins: 52)
8. Damian Lillard: 1728.9 (projected team wins: 51)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1545.9 (projected team wins: 59)
10. Russell Westbrook: 1539.7 (projected team wins: 51)
11. Klay Thompson: 1491.9 (projected team wins: 57)
12. Ben Simmons: 1463.5 (projected team wins: 52)
13. Pascal Siakam: 1447.0 (projected team wins: 59)
14. Eric Bledsoe: 1444.5 (projected team wins: 62)
15. Khris Middleton: 1424.5 (projected team wins: 62)
16. Rudy Gobert: 1421.0 (projected team wins: 47)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1386.6 (projected team wins: 38)
18. Kyrie Irving: 1363.7 (projected team wins: 49)
19. Malcolm Brogdon: 1333.4 (projected team wins: 62)
20. Blake Griffin: 1314.2 (projected team wins: 41)
21. Jusuf Nurkic: 1312.2 (projected team wins: 51)
22. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1286.6 (projected team wins: 45)
23. Nikola Vucevic: 1278.9 (projected team wins: 38)
24. Kyle Lowry: 1264.3 (projected team wins: 59)
25. CJ McCollum: 1252.0 (projected team wins: 51)
26. Serge Ibaka: 1248.0 (projected team wins: 59)
27. Brook Lopez: 1209.2 (projected team wins: 62)
28. Anthony Davis: 1208.1 (projected team wins: 37)
29. Kemba Walker: 1200.4 (projected team wins: 38)
30. DeMar DeRozan: 1174.9 (projected team wins: 45)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the clear leader of the race. James Harden climbed to the second place, but Kevin Durant is right behind him. Paul George missed some games and his team's projected number of wins decreased by 2, so his MVP value decreased considerably.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 20 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Deandre Ayton: 1024.4 (projected team wins: 18)
2. Devin Booker: 945.1 (projected team wins: 18)
3. Zach LaVine: 916.3 (projected team wins: 23)
4. Bradley Beal: 871.6 (projected team wins: 34)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns: 802.8 (projected team wins: 38)
6. Anthony Davis: 751.0 (projected team wins: 37)
7. Jordan Clarkson: 744.1 (projected team wins: 21)
8. Nikola Vucevic: 740.4 (projected team wins: 38)
9. Trae Young: 739.0 (projected team wins: 28)
10. Mike Conley: 722.6 (projected team wins: 32)
11. Noah Vonleh: 715.5 (projected team wins: 17)
12. Jrue Holiday: 701.3 (projected team wins: 37)
13. Kemba Walker: 695.0 (projected team wins: 38)
14. Lauri Markkanen: 661.2 (projected team wins: 23)
15. Luka Doncic: 654.7 (projected team wins: 35)
16. T.J. Warren: 634.4 (projected team wins: 18)
17. John Collins: 631.2 (projected team wins: 28)
18. Larry Nance: 624.9 (projected team wins: 21)
19. Cedi Osman: 616.8 (projected team wins: 21)
20. LeBron James: 614.3 (projected team wins: 38)
21. Blake Griffin: 609.0 (projected team wins: 41)
22. Collin Sexton: 599.9 (projected team wins: 21)
23. Julius Randle: 588.1 (projected team wins: 37)
24. Mikal Bridges: 578.7 (projected team wins: 18)
25. Josh Jackson: 555.6 (projected team wins: 18)
26. Andre Drummond: 537.0 (projected team wins: 41)
27. Emmanuel Mudiay: 534.3 (projected team wins: 17)
28. Dewayne Dedmon: 527.8 (projected team wins: 28)
29. Richaun Holmes: 525.5 (projected team wins: 18)
30. Allonzo Trier: 513.8 (projected team wins: 17)
Notably, Karl-Anthony Towns got into the top-5 and LeBron James is 20th!
There are currently 5 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Karl-Anthony Towns (17th and 5th), Anthony Davis (28th and 6th), Nikola Vucevic (23rd and 8th), Kemba Walker (29th and 13th) and Blake Griffin (20th and 21st).
NBA 2019 MVP race (part 9) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 3)
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 19 February 2019)
Part 9 = the end of week 18. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2412.6 (projected team wins: 62)
2. Kevin Durant: 2270.4 (projected team wins: 59)
3. James Harden: 2126.7 (projected team wins: 47)
4. Paul George: 2057.7 (projected team wins: 53)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1928.3 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Joel Embiid: 1911.9 (projected team wins: 52)
7. Stephen Curry: 1887.7 (projected team wins: 59)
8. Damian Lillard: 1674.8 (projected team wins: 49)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1594.5 (projected team wins: 60)
10. Russell Westbrook: 1564.3 (projected team wins: 53)
11. Klay Thompson: 1548.1 (projected team wins: 59)
12. Eric Bledsoe: 1463.0 (projected team wins: 62)
13. Ben Simmons: 1448.2 (projected team wins: 52)
14. Pascal Siakam: 1448.0 (projected team wins: 60)
15. Kyrie Irving: 1423.8 (projected team wins: 52)
16. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1422.5 (projected team wins: 39)
17. Khris Middleton: 1400.5 (projected team wins: 62)
18. Rudy Gobert: 1394.0 (projected team wins: 46)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1319.8 (projected team wins: 46)
20. Malcolm Brogdon: 1303.9 (projected team wins: 62)
21. Serge Ibaka: 1300.6 (projected team wins: 60)
22. Nikola Vucevic: 1254.0 (projected team wins: 38)
23. Blake Griffin: 1250.3 (projected team wins: 38)
24. Kemba Walker: 1235.3 (projected team wins: 39)
25. Kyle Lowry: 1232.3 (projected team wins: 60)
26. Anthony Davis: 1231.9 (projected team wins: 36)
27. Jusuf Nurkic: 1223.4 (projected team wins: 49)
28. Steven Adams: 1218.3 (projected team wins: 53)
29. Domantas Sabonis: 1210.2 (projected team wins: 54)
30. Brook Lopez: 1195.5 (projected team wins: 62)
The order in the top-9 didn't change. The most important observation is that the MVP value of Giannis Antetokounmpo increased a little and the MVP value of James Harden decreased a little (his team's projected number of wins decreased by 1). Interestingly Paul George got quite close to the third place.
Please notice that some players disappeared from the list just because they were traded, for example Tobias Harris. There is no way of calculating MVP values for traded players AND, more importantly, when a team trades a player it means that the player isn't as valuable to his team as it may seem, right? The same goes for the MFP list.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Deandre Ayton: 1077.0 (projected team wins: 15)
2. Devin Booker: 984.1 (projected team wins: 15)
3. Zach LaVine: 948.0 (projected team wins: 20)
4. Bradley Beal: 844.4 (projected team wins: 34)
5. Jordan Clarkson: 830.1 (projected team wins: 17)
6. Anthony Davis: 821.3 (projected team wins: 36)
7. Karl-Anthony Towns: 766.0 (projected team wins: 39)
8. Enes Kanter: 755.3 (projected team wins: 16)
9. T.J. Warren: 748.8 (projected team wins: 15)
10. Mike Conley: 733.7 (projected team wins: 32)
11. Noah Vonleh: 727.6 (projected team wins: 16)
12. Jrue Holiday: 726.6 (projected team wins: 36)
13. Nikola Vucevic: 726.0 (projected team wins: 38)
14. Blake Griffin: 723.8 (projected team wins: 38)
15. Trae Young: 698.5 (projected team wins: 27)
16. Larry Nance: 689.0 (projected team wins: 17)
17. Kemba Walker: 665.1 (projected team wins: 39)
18. Collin Sexton: 658.3 (projected team wins: 17)
19. John Collins: 656.0 (projected team wins: 27)
20. Lauri Markkanen: 632.2 (projected team wins: 20)
21. Cedi Osman: 626.4 (projected team wins: 17)
22. Luka Doncic: 617.6 (projected team wins: 37)
23. Mikal Bridges: 614.0 (projected team wins: 15)
24. Andre Drummond: 610.7 (projected team wins: 38)
25. Josh Jackson: 600.2 (projected team wins: 15)
26. Julius Randle: 597.3 (projected team wins: 36)
27. James Harden: 588.2 (projected team wins: 47)
28. Richaun Holmes: 570.4 (projected team wins: 15)
29. Tristan Thompson: 550.9 (projected team wins: 17)
30. Emmanuel Mudiay: 527.6 (projected team wins: 16)
Notably, Bradley Beal and Jordan Clarkson got into the top-5.
There are currently as many as 6 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Anthony Davis (26th and 6th), Karl-Anthony Towns (16th and 7th), Nikola Vucevic (22nd and 13th), Blake Griffin (23rd and 14th), Kemba Walker (24th and 17th) and James Harden (3rd and 27th).
Part 9 = the end of week 18. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2412.6 (projected team wins: 62)
2. Kevin Durant: 2270.4 (projected team wins: 59)
3. James Harden: 2126.7 (projected team wins: 47)
4. Paul George: 2057.7 (projected team wins: 53)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1928.3 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Joel Embiid: 1911.9 (projected team wins: 52)
7. Stephen Curry: 1887.7 (projected team wins: 59)
8. Damian Lillard: 1674.8 (projected team wins: 49)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1594.5 (projected team wins: 60)
10. Russell Westbrook: 1564.3 (projected team wins: 53)
11. Klay Thompson: 1548.1 (projected team wins: 59)
12. Eric Bledsoe: 1463.0 (projected team wins: 62)
13. Ben Simmons: 1448.2 (projected team wins: 52)
14. Pascal Siakam: 1448.0 (projected team wins: 60)
15. Kyrie Irving: 1423.8 (projected team wins: 52)
16. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1422.5 (projected team wins: 39)
17. Khris Middleton: 1400.5 (projected team wins: 62)
18. Rudy Gobert: 1394.0 (projected team wins: 46)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1319.8 (projected team wins: 46)
20. Malcolm Brogdon: 1303.9 (projected team wins: 62)
21. Serge Ibaka: 1300.6 (projected team wins: 60)
22. Nikola Vucevic: 1254.0 (projected team wins: 38)
23. Blake Griffin: 1250.3 (projected team wins: 38)
24. Kemba Walker: 1235.3 (projected team wins: 39)
25. Kyle Lowry: 1232.3 (projected team wins: 60)
26. Anthony Davis: 1231.9 (projected team wins: 36)
27. Jusuf Nurkic: 1223.4 (projected team wins: 49)
28. Steven Adams: 1218.3 (projected team wins: 53)
29. Domantas Sabonis: 1210.2 (projected team wins: 54)
30. Brook Lopez: 1195.5 (projected team wins: 62)
The order in the top-9 didn't change. The most important observation is that the MVP value of Giannis Antetokounmpo increased a little and the MVP value of James Harden decreased a little (his team's projected number of wins decreased by 1). Interestingly Paul George got quite close to the third place.
Please notice that some players disappeared from the list just because they were traded, for example Tobias Harris. There is no way of calculating MVP values for traded players AND, more importantly, when a team trades a player it means that the player isn't as valuable to his team as it may seem, right? The same goes for the MFP list.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 18 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Deandre Ayton: 1077.0 (projected team wins: 15)
2. Devin Booker: 984.1 (projected team wins: 15)
3. Zach LaVine: 948.0 (projected team wins: 20)
4. Bradley Beal: 844.4 (projected team wins: 34)
5. Jordan Clarkson: 830.1 (projected team wins: 17)
6. Anthony Davis: 821.3 (projected team wins: 36)
7. Karl-Anthony Towns: 766.0 (projected team wins: 39)
8. Enes Kanter: 755.3 (projected team wins: 16)
9. T.J. Warren: 748.8 (projected team wins: 15)
10. Mike Conley: 733.7 (projected team wins: 32)
11. Noah Vonleh: 727.6 (projected team wins: 16)
12. Jrue Holiday: 726.6 (projected team wins: 36)
13. Nikola Vucevic: 726.0 (projected team wins: 38)
14. Blake Griffin: 723.8 (projected team wins: 38)
15. Trae Young: 698.5 (projected team wins: 27)
16. Larry Nance: 689.0 (projected team wins: 17)
17. Kemba Walker: 665.1 (projected team wins: 39)
18. Collin Sexton: 658.3 (projected team wins: 17)
19. John Collins: 656.0 (projected team wins: 27)
20. Lauri Markkanen: 632.2 (projected team wins: 20)
21. Cedi Osman: 626.4 (projected team wins: 17)
22. Luka Doncic: 617.6 (projected team wins: 37)
23. Mikal Bridges: 614.0 (projected team wins: 15)
24. Andre Drummond: 610.7 (projected team wins: 38)
25. Josh Jackson: 600.2 (projected team wins: 15)
26. Julius Randle: 597.3 (projected team wins: 36)
27. James Harden: 588.2 (projected team wins: 47)
28. Richaun Holmes: 570.4 (projected team wins: 15)
29. Tristan Thompson: 550.9 (projected team wins: 17)
30. Emmanuel Mudiay: 527.6 (projected team wins: 16)
Notably, Bradley Beal and Jordan Clarkson got into the top-5.
There are currently as many as 6 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Anthony Davis (26th and 6th), Karl-Anthony Towns (16th and 7th), Nikola Vucevic (22nd and 13th), Blake Griffin (23rd and 14th), Kemba Walker (24th and 17th) and James Harden (3rd and 27th).
NBA 2019 MVP race (part 8) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 2)
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 5 February 2019)
Part 8 = the end of week 16. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 16 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2385.9 (projected team wins: 62)
2. Kevin Durant: 2221.1 (projected team wins: 58)
3. James Harden: 2174.5 (projected team wins: 48)
4. Paul George: 1955.7 (projected team wins: 52)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1938.4 (projected team wins: 57)
6. Joel Embiid: 1930.0 (projected team wins: 53)
7. Stephen Curry: 1841.2 (projected team wins: 58)
8. Damian Lillard: 1705.3 (projected team wins: 50)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1593.1 (projected team wins: 58)
10. Kyrie Irving: 1537.1 (projected team wins: 53)
11. Ben Simmons: 1528.7 (projected team wins: 53)
12. Klay Thompson: 1487.1 (projected team wins: 58)
13. Russell Westbrook: 1484.8 (projected team wins: 52)
14. Eric Bledsoe: 1452.2 (projected team wins: 62)
15. Khris Middleton: 1439.8 (projected team wins: 62)
16. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1414.8 (projected team wins: 48)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1405.2 (projected team wins: 39)
18. Rudy Gobert: 1385.2 (projected team wins: 46)
19. Pascal Siakam: 1356.2 (projected team wins: 58)
20. Malcolm Brogdon: 1291.1 (projected team wins: 62)
21. Tobias Harris: 1279.9 (projected team wins: 44)
22. Kemba Walker: 1274.4 (projected team wins: 41)
23. Jusuf Nurkic: 1265.0 (projected team wins: 50)
24. DeMar DeRozan: 1246.7 (projected team wins: 48)
25. Anthony Davis: 1239.7 (projected team wins: 35)
26. Steven Adams: 1239.6 (projected team wins: 52)
27. Serge Ibaka: 1230.2 (projected team wins: 58)
28. Brook Lopez: 1206.7 (projected team wins: 62)
29. CJ McCollum: 1204.3 (projected team wins: 50)
30. Domantas Sabonis: 1200.8 (projected team wins: 53)
Giannis Antetokounmpo increased his lead over Kevin Durant, but at the same time James Harden increased his MVP value even more and actually got closer to the top. Paul George played so well that he advanced to the 4th place.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 16 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Deandre Ayton: 1046.6 (projected team wins: 16)
2. Devin Booker: 993.3 (projected team wins: 16)
3. Zach LaVine: 929.7 (projected team wins: 19)
4. Anthony Davis: 885.5 (projected team wins: 35)
5. Nikola Vucevic: 858.8 (projected team wins: 34)
6. Tim Hardaway: 845.8 (projected team wins: 16)
7. Enes Kanter: 842.5 (projected team wins: 16)
8. Bradley Beal: 824.6 (projected team wins: 34)
9. Jordan Clarkson: 810.4 (projected team wins: 17)
10. T.J. Warren: 785.4 (projected team wins: 16)
11. Blake Griffin: 776.9 (projected team wins: 36)
12. Noah Vonleh: 776.7 (projected team wins: 16)
13. Karl-Anthony Towns: 756.7 (projected team wins: 39)
14. Mike Conley: 755.8 (projected team wins: 32)
15. Jrue Holiday: 753.5 (projected team wins: 35)
16. Marc Gasol: 718.1 (projected team wins: 32)
17. Cedi Osman: 668.9 (projected team wins: 17)
18. Trae Young: 663.4 (projected team wins: 28)
19. Larry Nance: 647.4 (projected team wins: 17)
20. John Collins: 637.5 (projected team wins: 28)
21. Andre Drummond: 635.0 (projected team wins: 36)
22. Collin Sexton: 616.9 (projected team wins: 17)
23. Julius Randle: 610.7 (projected team wins: 35)
24. Tristan Thompson: 602.8 (projected team wins: 17)
25. Mikal Bridges: 593.3 (projected team wins: 16)
26. Kemba Walker: 590.6 (projected team wins: 41)
27. Luka Doncic: 589.5 (projected team wins: 38)
28. Emmanuel Mudiay: 588.4 (projected team wins: 16)
29. Wendell Carter: 586.9 (projected team wins: 19)
30. Rodney Hood: 562.8 (projected team wins: 17)
Devin Booker is healthy, but his team lost all 7 games in the last 2 weeks, so his frustration increased significantly. Deandre Ayton missed 6 of these 7 games and his projected MFP value decreased a little (he is now projected to have lower overall value, because of the injury).
There are currently 3 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Anthony Davis (25th and 4th), Karl-Anthony Towns (17th and 13th) and Kemba Walker (22th and 26th).
Part 8 = the end of week 16. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 16 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2385.9 (projected team wins: 62)
2. Kevin Durant: 2221.1 (projected team wins: 58)
3. James Harden: 2174.5 (projected team wins: 48)
4. Paul George: 1955.7 (projected team wins: 52)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1938.4 (projected team wins: 57)
6. Joel Embiid: 1930.0 (projected team wins: 53)
7. Stephen Curry: 1841.2 (projected team wins: 58)
8. Damian Lillard: 1705.3 (projected team wins: 50)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1593.1 (projected team wins: 58)
10. Kyrie Irving: 1537.1 (projected team wins: 53)
11. Ben Simmons: 1528.7 (projected team wins: 53)
12. Klay Thompson: 1487.1 (projected team wins: 58)
13. Russell Westbrook: 1484.8 (projected team wins: 52)
14. Eric Bledsoe: 1452.2 (projected team wins: 62)
15. Khris Middleton: 1439.8 (projected team wins: 62)
16. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1414.8 (projected team wins: 48)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1405.2 (projected team wins: 39)
18. Rudy Gobert: 1385.2 (projected team wins: 46)
19. Pascal Siakam: 1356.2 (projected team wins: 58)
20. Malcolm Brogdon: 1291.1 (projected team wins: 62)
21. Tobias Harris: 1279.9 (projected team wins: 44)
22. Kemba Walker: 1274.4 (projected team wins: 41)
23. Jusuf Nurkic: 1265.0 (projected team wins: 50)
24. DeMar DeRozan: 1246.7 (projected team wins: 48)
25. Anthony Davis: 1239.7 (projected team wins: 35)
26. Steven Adams: 1239.6 (projected team wins: 52)
27. Serge Ibaka: 1230.2 (projected team wins: 58)
28. Brook Lopez: 1206.7 (projected team wins: 62)
29. CJ McCollum: 1204.3 (projected team wins: 50)
30. Domantas Sabonis: 1200.8 (projected team wins: 53)
Giannis Antetokounmpo increased his lead over Kevin Durant, but at the same time James Harden increased his MVP value even more and actually got closer to the top. Paul George played so well that he advanced to the 4th place.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 16 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Deandre Ayton: 1046.6 (projected team wins: 16)
2. Devin Booker: 993.3 (projected team wins: 16)
3. Zach LaVine: 929.7 (projected team wins: 19)
4. Anthony Davis: 885.5 (projected team wins: 35)
5. Nikola Vucevic: 858.8 (projected team wins: 34)
6. Tim Hardaway: 845.8 (projected team wins: 16)
7. Enes Kanter: 842.5 (projected team wins: 16)
8. Bradley Beal: 824.6 (projected team wins: 34)
9. Jordan Clarkson: 810.4 (projected team wins: 17)
10. T.J. Warren: 785.4 (projected team wins: 16)
11. Blake Griffin: 776.9 (projected team wins: 36)
12. Noah Vonleh: 776.7 (projected team wins: 16)
13. Karl-Anthony Towns: 756.7 (projected team wins: 39)
14. Mike Conley: 755.8 (projected team wins: 32)
15. Jrue Holiday: 753.5 (projected team wins: 35)
16. Marc Gasol: 718.1 (projected team wins: 32)
17. Cedi Osman: 668.9 (projected team wins: 17)
18. Trae Young: 663.4 (projected team wins: 28)
19. Larry Nance: 647.4 (projected team wins: 17)
20. John Collins: 637.5 (projected team wins: 28)
21. Andre Drummond: 635.0 (projected team wins: 36)
22. Collin Sexton: 616.9 (projected team wins: 17)
23. Julius Randle: 610.7 (projected team wins: 35)
24. Tristan Thompson: 602.8 (projected team wins: 17)
25. Mikal Bridges: 593.3 (projected team wins: 16)
26. Kemba Walker: 590.6 (projected team wins: 41)
27. Luka Doncic: 589.5 (projected team wins: 38)
28. Emmanuel Mudiay: 588.4 (projected team wins: 16)
29. Wendell Carter: 586.9 (projected team wins: 19)
30. Rodney Hood: 562.8 (projected team wins: 17)
Devin Booker is healthy, but his team lost all 7 games in the last 2 weeks, so his frustration increased significantly. Deandre Ayton missed 6 of these 7 games and his projected MFP value decreased a little (he is now projected to have lower overall value, because of the injury).
There are currently 3 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Anthony Davis (25th and 4th), Karl-Anthony Towns (17th and 13th) and Kemba Walker (22th and 26th).
NBA 2019 MVP race (part 7) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 1)
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 22 January 2019)
Part 7 = the end of week 14. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 14 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2298.2 (projected team wins: 61)
2. Kevin Durant: 2279.9 (projected team wins: 58)
3. James Harden: 2008.4 (projected team wins: 46)
4. Joel Embiid: 1962.1 (projected team wins: 53)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1896.3 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Stephen Curry: 1810.9 (projected team wins: 58)
7. Paul George: 1794.0 (projected team wins: 50)
8. Damian Lillard: 1706.5 (projected team wins: 50)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1692.9 (projected team wins: 60)
10. Anthony Davis: 1546.5 (projected team wins: 38)
11. Klay Thompson: 1538.2 (projected team wins: 58)
12. Kyrie Irving: 1537.2 (projected team wins: 51)
13. Ben Simmons: 1504.0 (projected team wins: 53)
14. Eric Bledsoe: 1461.1 (projected team wins: 61)
15. Khris Middleton: 1402.0 (projected team wins: 61)
16. Pascal Siakam: 1392.4 (projected team wins: 60)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1369.6 (projected team wins: 39)
18. Russell Westbrook: 1361.4 (projected team wins: 50)
19. Jamal Murray: 1329.5 (projected team wins: 56)
20. Tobias Harris: 1328.0 (projected team wins: 45)
21. Rudy Gobert: 1319.2 (projected team wins: 44)
22. Domantas Sabonis: 1311.4 (projected team wins: 55)
23. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1310.0 (projected team wins: 46)
24. Jusuf Nurkic: 1289.1 (projected team wins: 50)
25. Malcolm Brogdon: 1284.1 (projected team wins: 61)
26. Clint Capela: 1280.1 (projected team wins: 46)
27. DeMar DeRozan: 1266.8 (projected team wins: 46)
28. Serge Ibaka: 1251.7 (projected team wins: 60)
29. Kemba Walker: 1227.7 (projected team wins: 39)
30. Steven Adams: 1217.9 (projected team wins: 50)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the leader of the race. Kevin Durant is very close, but there is no way he will win the MVP award, considering how well Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have been playing recently. James Harden overtook Joel Embiid and is now 3rd, but his team's projected record worsened a bit (mostly because of Chris Paul's injury.). Nikola Jokic is back in the top-5, but this time it's for real (previously he was even in the top-3, but only after week 2, which was “too small a sample”).
LeBron James may have already lost ANY chances of winning the race (because of his injury). Currently he is not even in the top-30 and the chances that his team will win close to 60 games are only virtual.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 14 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Deandre Ayton: 1079.0 (projected team wins: 19)
2. Zach LaVine: 927.8 (projected team wins: 19)
3. Enes Kanter: 918.8 (projected team wins: 18)
4. Anthony Davis: 895.3 (projected team wins: 38)
5. Devin Booker: 871.5 (projected team wins: 19)
6. Tim Hardaway: 840.8 (projected team wins: 18)
7. Jordan Clarkson: 836.0 (projected team wins: 15)
8. T.J. Warren: 832.9 (projected team wins: 19)
9. Nikola Vucevic: 819.6 (projected team wins: 35)
10. Blake Griffin: 777.7 (projected team wins: 36)
11. Bradley Beal: 754.2 (projected team wins: 36)
12. Noah Vonleh: 749.4 (projected team wins: 18)
13. Karl-Anthony Towns: 737.5 (projected team wins: 39)
14. Mike Conley: 713.0 (projected team wins: 33)
15. Tristan Thompson: 696.6 (projected team wins: 15)
16. Larry Nance: 690.7 (projected team wins: 15)
17. Marc Gasol: 682.8 (projected team wins: 33)
18. Trae Young: 672.6 (projected team wins: 25)
19. Wendell Carter: 661.8 (projected team wins: 19)
20. Kemba Walker: 661.0 (projected team wins: 39)
21. Collin Sexton: 660.9 (projected team wins: 15)
22. Jrue Holiday: 655.1 (projected team wins: 38)
23. Emmanuel Mudiay: 639.6 (projected team wins: 18)
24. Cedi Osman: 632.9 (projected team wins: 15)
25. John Collins: 631.7 (projected team wins: 25)
26. Luka Doncic: 629.3 (projected team wins: 36)
27. Andre Drummond: 619.0 (projected team wins: 36)
28. James Harden: 611.2 (projected team wins: 46)
29. Julius Randle: 607.7 (projected team wins: 38)
30. Rodney Hood: 595.2 (projected team wins: 15)
Why is Deandre Ayton projected to be significantly more frustrated than Devin Booker? Because Booker has already missed 13 games (projected to miss 22 games) and Ayton missed only 1 game so far (projected to miss only 2 games), so Ayton is projected to play in much more games that were/will be VERY hard to win (without Booker), so most of them were/will be losses, even though he is playing very well himself.
Pleas notice that there are 4 (FOUR) players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list! The most striking case is Anthony Davis – he is 10th on the MVP list and 4th on the MFP list. The other 3 such players are: Karl-Anthony Towns (17th and 13th), Kemba Walker (29th and 20th) and James Harden (3rd and 28th). Interesting, isn't it?
Part 7 = the end of week 14. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 14 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2298.2 (projected team wins: 61)
2. Kevin Durant: 2279.9 (projected team wins: 58)
3. James Harden: 2008.4 (projected team wins: 46)
4. Joel Embiid: 1962.1 (projected team wins: 53)
5. Nikola Jokic: 1896.3 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Stephen Curry: 1810.9 (projected team wins: 58)
7. Paul George: 1794.0 (projected team wins: 50)
8. Damian Lillard: 1706.5 (projected team wins: 50)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1692.9 (projected team wins: 60)
10. Anthony Davis: 1546.5 (projected team wins: 38)
11. Klay Thompson: 1538.2 (projected team wins: 58)
12. Kyrie Irving: 1537.2 (projected team wins: 51)
13. Ben Simmons: 1504.0 (projected team wins: 53)
14. Eric Bledsoe: 1461.1 (projected team wins: 61)
15. Khris Middleton: 1402.0 (projected team wins: 61)
16. Pascal Siakam: 1392.4 (projected team wins: 60)
17. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1369.6 (projected team wins: 39)
18. Russell Westbrook: 1361.4 (projected team wins: 50)
19. Jamal Murray: 1329.5 (projected team wins: 56)
20. Tobias Harris: 1328.0 (projected team wins: 45)
21. Rudy Gobert: 1319.2 (projected team wins: 44)
22. Domantas Sabonis: 1311.4 (projected team wins: 55)
23. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1310.0 (projected team wins: 46)
24. Jusuf Nurkic: 1289.1 (projected team wins: 50)
25. Malcolm Brogdon: 1284.1 (projected team wins: 61)
26. Clint Capela: 1280.1 (projected team wins: 46)
27. DeMar DeRozan: 1266.8 (projected team wins: 46)
28. Serge Ibaka: 1251.7 (projected team wins: 60)
29. Kemba Walker: 1227.7 (projected team wins: 39)
30. Steven Adams: 1217.9 (projected team wins: 50)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the leader of the race. Kevin Durant is very close, but there is no way he will win the MVP award, considering how well Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have been playing recently. James Harden overtook Joel Embiid and is now 3rd, but his team's projected record worsened a bit (mostly because of Chris Paul's injury.). Nikola Jokic is back in the top-5, but this time it's for real (previously he was even in the top-3, but only after week 2, which was “too small a sample”).
LeBron James may have already lost ANY chances of winning the race (because of his injury). Currently he is not even in the top-30 and the chances that his team will win close to 60 games are only virtual.
With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 14 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:
1. Deandre Ayton: 1079.0 (projected team wins: 19)
2. Zach LaVine: 927.8 (projected team wins: 19)
3. Enes Kanter: 918.8 (projected team wins: 18)
4. Anthony Davis: 895.3 (projected team wins: 38)
5. Devin Booker: 871.5 (projected team wins: 19)
6. Tim Hardaway: 840.8 (projected team wins: 18)
7. Jordan Clarkson: 836.0 (projected team wins: 15)
8. T.J. Warren: 832.9 (projected team wins: 19)
9. Nikola Vucevic: 819.6 (projected team wins: 35)
10. Blake Griffin: 777.7 (projected team wins: 36)
11. Bradley Beal: 754.2 (projected team wins: 36)
12. Noah Vonleh: 749.4 (projected team wins: 18)
13. Karl-Anthony Towns: 737.5 (projected team wins: 39)
14. Mike Conley: 713.0 (projected team wins: 33)
15. Tristan Thompson: 696.6 (projected team wins: 15)
16. Larry Nance: 690.7 (projected team wins: 15)
17. Marc Gasol: 682.8 (projected team wins: 33)
18. Trae Young: 672.6 (projected team wins: 25)
19. Wendell Carter: 661.8 (projected team wins: 19)
20. Kemba Walker: 661.0 (projected team wins: 39)
21. Collin Sexton: 660.9 (projected team wins: 15)
22. Jrue Holiday: 655.1 (projected team wins: 38)
23. Emmanuel Mudiay: 639.6 (projected team wins: 18)
24. Cedi Osman: 632.9 (projected team wins: 15)
25. John Collins: 631.7 (projected team wins: 25)
26. Luka Doncic: 629.3 (projected team wins: 36)
27. Andre Drummond: 619.0 (projected team wins: 36)
28. James Harden: 611.2 (projected team wins: 46)
29. Julius Randle: 607.7 (projected team wins: 38)
30. Rodney Hood: 595.2 (projected team wins: 15)
Why is Deandre Ayton projected to be significantly more frustrated than Devin Booker? Because Booker has already missed 13 games (projected to miss 22 games) and Ayton missed only 1 game so far (projected to miss only 2 games), so Ayton is projected to play in much more games that were/will be VERY hard to win (without Booker), so most of them were/will be losses, even though he is playing very well himself.
Pleas notice that there are 4 (FOUR) players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list! The most striking case is Anthony Davis – he is 10th on the MVP list and 4th on the MFP list. The other 3 such players are: Karl-Anthony Towns (17th and 13th), Kemba Walker (29th and 20th) and James Harden (3rd and 28th). Interesting, isn't it?
NBA 2019 MVP race – part 6
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 8 January 2019)
Part 6 = the end of week 12. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 12 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2263.0 (projected team wins: 59)
2. Kevin Durant: 2094.4 (projected team wins: 53)
3. Joel Embiid: 1976.0 (projected team wins: 53)
4. James Harden: 1955.5 (projected team wins: 48)
5. Paul George: 1892.1 (projected team wins: 53)
6. Nikola Jokic: 1840.3 (projected team wins: 56)
7. Kawhi Leonard: 1641.9 (projected team wins: 59)
8. Damian Lillard: 1637.0 (projected team wins: 48)
9. Stephen Curry: 1534.1 (projected team wins: 53)
10. Anthony Davis: 1531.6 (projected team wins: 38)
11. Clint Capela: 1476.1 (projected team wins: 48)
12. Ben Simmons: 1473.6 (projected team wins: 53)
13. Kyrie Irving: 1471.5 (projected team wins: 50)
14. DeMar DeRozan: 1455.7 (projected team wins: 48)
15. LeBron James: 1394.9 (projected team wins: 44)
16. Tobias Harris: 1389.9 (projected team wins: 48)
17. Khris Middleton: 1388.1 (projected team wins: 59)
18. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1366.8 (projected team wins: 39)
19. Pascal Siakam: 1363.6 (projected team wins: 59)
20. Russell Westbrook: 1355.0 (projected team wins: 53)
21. Eric Bledsoe: 1350.2 (projected team wins: 59)
22. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1318.0 (projected team wins: 48)
23. Klay Thompson: 1305.9 (projected team wins: 53)
24. Danilo Gallinari: 1303.4 (projected team wins: 48)
25. Kemba Walker: 1300.0 (projected team wins: 40)
26. Jamal Murray: 1285.4 (projected team wins: 56)
27. Domantas Sabonis: 1283.0 (projected team wins: 55)
28. Steven Adams: 1274.4 (projected team wins: 53)
29. Serge Ibaka: 1247.4 (projected team wins: 59)
30. Malcolm Brogdon: 1221.1 (projected team wins: 59)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the new leader of the race, but James Harden is going up the list very quickly (he is already at the 4th place). I think that the race will be won by one of these two players, but the next 4 or 5 players will be right behind them.
In the last two weeks LeBron James missed 7 games (so he is projected to miss 14 games overall) and his team recorded only 2 wins without him (their projected number of team wins decreased by 3) – these two things combined dragged the MVP value of LeBron James surprisingly much down. Well, he is not so valuable when his injured, right? Similarly to Stephen Curry.
Part 6 = the end of week 12. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 12 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2263.0 (projected team wins: 59)
2. Kevin Durant: 2094.4 (projected team wins: 53)
3. Joel Embiid: 1976.0 (projected team wins: 53)
4. James Harden: 1955.5 (projected team wins: 48)
5. Paul George: 1892.1 (projected team wins: 53)
6. Nikola Jokic: 1840.3 (projected team wins: 56)
7. Kawhi Leonard: 1641.9 (projected team wins: 59)
8. Damian Lillard: 1637.0 (projected team wins: 48)
9. Stephen Curry: 1534.1 (projected team wins: 53)
10. Anthony Davis: 1531.6 (projected team wins: 38)
11. Clint Capela: 1476.1 (projected team wins: 48)
12. Ben Simmons: 1473.6 (projected team wins: 53)
13. Kyrie Irving: 1471.5 (projected team wins: 50)
14. DeMar DeRozan: 1455.7 (projected team wins: 48)
15. LeBron James: 1394.9 (projected team wins: 44)
16. Tobias Harris: 1389.9 (projected team wins: 48)
17. Khris Middleton: 1388.1 (projected team wins: 59)
18. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1366.8 (projected team wins: 39)
19. Pascal Siakam: 1363.6 (projected team wins: 59)
20. Russell Westbrook: 1355.0 (projected team wins: 53)
21. Eric Bledsoe: 1350.2 (projected team wins: 59)
22. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1318.0 (projected team wins: 48)
23. Klay Thompson: 1305.9 (projected team wins: 53)
24. Danilo Gallinari: 1303.4 (projected team wins: 48)
25. Kemba Walker: 1300.0 (projected team wins: 40)
26. Jamal Murray: 1285.4 (projected team wins: 56)
27. Domantas Sabonis: 1283.0 (projected team wins: 55)
28. Steven Adams: 1274.4 (projected team wins: 53)
29. Serge Ibaka: 1247.4 (projected team wins: 59)
30. Malcolm Brogdon: 1221.1 (projected team wins: 59)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the new leader of the race, but James Harden is going up the list very quickly (he is already at the 4th place). I think that the race will be won by one of these two players, but the next 4 or 5 players will be right behind them.
In the last two weeks LeBron James missed 7 games (so he is projected to miss 14 games overall) and his team recorded only 2 wins without him (their projected number of team wins decreased by 3) – these two things combined dragged the MVP value of LeBron James surprisingly much down. Well, he is not so valuable when his injured, right? Similarly to Stephen Curry.
NBA 2019 MVP race – part 5
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 25 December 2018)
Part 5 = the end of week 10. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 10 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Kevin Durant: 2226.1 (projected team wins: 55)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2076.3 (projected team wins: 56)
3. Paul George: 1992.3 (projected team wins: 54)
4. Joel Embiid: 1949.9 (projected team wins: 53)
5. LeBron James: 1809.4 (projected team wins: 47)
6. Nikola Jokic: 1792.3 (projected team wins: 56)
7. James Harden: 1687.0 (projected team wins: 44)
8. Damian Lillard: 1678.0 (projected team wins: 47)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1613.6 (projected team wins: 59)
10. Stephen Curry: 1505.6 (projected team wins: 55)
11. Ben Simmons: 1493.6 (projected team wins: 53)
12. Kyrie Irving: 1478.6 (projected team wins: 49)
13. Anthony Davis: 1426.1 (projected team wins: 36)
14. Tobias Harris: 1404.5 (projected team wins: 47)
15. Eric Bledsoe: 1360.2 (projected team wins: 56)
16. Klay Thompson: 1350.4 (projected team wins: 55)
17. Pascal Siakam: 1345.7 (projected team wins: 59)
18. Kyle Lowry: 1344.3 (projected team wins: 59)
19. Kemba Walker: 1321.5 (projected team wins: 41)
20. Steven Adams: 1304.5 (projected team wins: 54)
21. Clint Capela: 1299.8 (projected team wins: 44)
22. Russell Westbrook: 1298.5 (projected team wins: 54)
23. DeMar DeRozan: 1289.2 (projected team wins: 43)
24. Danilo Gallinari: 1286.0 (projected team wins: 47)
25. Khris Middleton: 1271.1 (projected team wins: 56)
26. Blake Griffin: 1266.0 (projected team wins: 40)
27. Serge Ibaka: 1264.1 (projected team wins: 59)
28. Jamal Murray: 1246.5 (projected team wins: 56)
29. Domantas Sabonis: 1194.5 (projected team wins: 53)
30. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1187.2 (projected team wins: 37)
This race is getting ridiculously tight. Kevin Durant is still the leader, but his chances to actually win the MVP award are rather theoretical right now. In the top 5 only Paul George's MVP value increased (he advanced to the 3rd place) and the rest lost some of their MVP values. Outside the top 5 there is Nikola Jokic right behind LeBron James and at the 7th place there is James Harden rapidly catching up with the leaders (mostly because his team have recently won 6 out of 7 games). Finally, Stephen Curry is healthy, so his projected number of missed games is falling and hence his MVP value is increasing. The MVP voting at the end of the season will be really crazy.
Part 5 = the end of week 10. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 10 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Kevin Durant: 2226.1 (projected team wins: 55)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2076.3 (projected team wins: 56)
3. Paul George: 1992.3 (projected team wins: 54)
4. Joel Embiid: 1949.9 (projected team wins: 53)
5. LeBron James: 1809.4 (projected team wins: 47)
6. Nikola Jokic: 1792.3 (projected team wins: 56)
7. James Harden: 1687.0 (projected team wins: 44)
8. Damian Lillard: 1678.0 (projected team wins: 47)
9. Kawhi Leonard: 1613.6 (projected team wins: 59)
10. Stephen Curry: 1505.6 (projected team wins: 55)
11. Ben Simmons: 1493.6 (projected team wins: 53)
12. Kyrie Irving: 1478.6 (projected team wins: 49)
13. Anthony Davis: 1426.1 (projected team wins: 36)
14. Tobias Harris: 1404.5 (projected team wins: 47)
15. Eric Bledsoe: 1360.2 (projected team wins: 56)
16. Klay Thompson: 1350.4 (projected team wins: 55)
17. Pascal Siakam: 1345.7 (projected team wins: 59)
18. Kyle Lowry: 1344.3 (projected team wins: 59)
19. Kemba Walker: 1321.5 (projected team wins: 41)
20. Steven Adams: 1304.5 (projected team wins: 54)
21. Clint Capela: 1299.8 (projected team wins: 44)
22. Russell Westbrook: 1298.5 (projected team wins: 54)
23. DeMar DeRozan: 1289.2 (projected team wins: 43)
24. Danilo Gallinari: 1286.0 (projected team wins: 47)
25. Khris Middleton: 1271.1 (projected team wins: 56)
26. Blake Griffin: 1266.0 (projected team wins: 40)
27. Serge Ibaka: 1264.1 (projected team wins: 59)
28. Jamal Murray: 1246.5 (projected team wins: 56)
29. Domantas Sabonis: 1194.5 (projected team wins: 53)
30. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1187.2 (projected team wins: 37)
This race is getting ridiculously tight. Kevin Durant is still the leader, but his chances to actually win the MVP award are rather theoretical right now. In the top 5 only Paul George's MVP value increased (he advanced to the 3rd place) and the rest lost some of their MVP values. Outside the top 5 there is Nikola Jokic right behind LeBron James and at the 7th place there is James Harden rapidly catching up with the leaders (mostly because his team have recently won 6 out of 7 games). Finally, Stephen Curry is healthy, so his projected number of missed games is falling and hence his MVP value is increasing. The MVP voting at the end of the season will be really crazy.
NBA 2019 MVP race – part 4
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 11 December 2018)
Part 4 = the end of week 8. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 8 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Kevin Durant: 2260.2 (projected team wins: 56)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2108.6 (projected team wins: 57)
3. Joel Embiid: 2052.3 (projected team wins: 56)
4. LeBron James: 2034.3 (projected team wins: 52)
5. Paul George: 1900.6 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Kawhi Leonard: 1751.6 (projected team wins: 62)
7. Nikola Jokic: 1716.5 (projected team wins: 55)
8. Damian Lillard: 1700.1 (projected team wins: 47)
9. Tobias Harris: 1599.8 (projected team wins: 54)
10. Kyle Lowry: 1533.4 (projected team wins: 62)
11. Anthony Davis: 1511.9 (projected team wins: 40)
12. Ben Simmons: 1488.8 (projected team wins: 56)
13. Pascal Siakam: 1478.4 (projected team wins: 62)
14. Stephen Curry: 1441.5 (projected team wins: 56)
15. Kyrie Irving: 1430.7 (projected team wins: 50)
16. Klay Thompson: 1422.5 (projected team wins: 56)
17. Eric Bledsoe: 1418.4 (projected team wins: 57)
18. Danilo Gallinari: 1408.2 (projected team wins: 54)
19. Serge Ibaka: 1402.1 (projected team wins: 62)
20. Kemba Walker: 1371.3 (projected team wins: 41)
21. Blake Griffin: 1369.8 (projected team wins: 43)
22. Khris Middleton: 1360.9 (projected team wins: 57)
23. Steven Adams: 1329.0 (projected team wins: 56)
24. Marc Gasol: 1322.0 (projected team wins: 47)
25. Mike Conley: 1281.6 (projected team wins: 47)
26. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1280.6 (projected team wins: 39)
27. Malcolm Brogdon: 1277.3 (projected team wins: 57)
28. Montrezl Harrell: 1272.6 (projected team wins: 54)
29. Russell Westbrook: 1268.1 (projected team wins: 56)
30. Andre Drummond: 1253.5 (projected team wins: 43)
The race got even more interesting. Kevin Durant 's projected MVP value remained almost exactly the same, the projected MVP values of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid fell down a little and the projected MVP values of LeBron James and Paul George increased significantly. Paul George got into the top 5!
Part 4 = the end of week 8. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 8 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Kevin Durant: 2260.2 (projected team wins: 56)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2108.6 (projected team wins: 57)
3. Joel Embiid: 2052.3 (projected team wins: 56)
4. LeBron James: 2034.3 (projected team wins: 52)
5. Paul George: 1900.6 (projected team wins: 56)
6. Kawhi Leonard: 1751.6 (projected team wins: 62)
7. Nikola Jokic: 1716.5 (projected team wins: 55)
8. Damian Lillard: 1700.1 (projected team wins: 47)
9. Tobias Harris: 1599.8 (projected team wins: 54)
10. Kyle Lowry: 1533.4 (projected team wins: 62)
11. Anthony Davis: 1511.9 (projected team wins: 40)
12. Ben Simmons: 1488.8 (projected team wins: 56)
13. Pascal Siakam: 1478.4 (projected team wins: 62)
14. Stephen Curry: 1441.5 (projected team wins: 56)
15. Kyrie Irving: 1430.7 (projected team wins: 50)
16. Klay Thompson: 1422.5 (projected team wins: 56)
17. Eric Bledsoe: 1418.4 (projected team wins: 57)
18. Danilo Gallinari: 1408.2 (projected team wins: 54)
19. Serge Ibaka: 1402.1 (projected team wins: 62)
20. Kemba Walker: 1371.3 (projected team wins: 41)
21. Blake Griffin: 1369.8 (projected team wins: 43)
22. Khris Middleton: 1360.9 (projected team wins: 57)
23. Steven Adams: 1329.0 (projected team wins: 56)
24. Marc Gasol: 1322.0 (projected team wins: 47)
25. Mike Conley: 1281.6 (projected team wins: 47)
26. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1280.6 (projected team wins: 39)
27. Malcolm Brogdon: 1277.3 (projected team wins: 57)
28. Montrezl Harrell: 1272.6 (projected team wins: 54)
29. Russell Westbrook: 1268.1 (projected team wins: 56)
30. Andre Drummond: 1253.5 (projected team wins: 43)
The race got even more interesting. Kevin Durant 's projected MVP value remained almost exactly the same, the projected MVP values of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid fell down a little and the projected MVP values of LeBron James and Paul George increased significantly. Paul George got into the top 5!
NBA 2019 MVP race – part 3
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 27 November 2018)
Part 3 = the end of week 6. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 6 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Kevin Durant: 2264.8 (projected team wins: 56)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2158.1 (projected team wins: 57)
3. Joel Embiid: 2105.3 (projected team wins: 52)
4. LeBron James: 1872.9 (projected team wins: 47)
5. Kyle Lowry: 1865.8 (projected team wins: 66)
6. Paul George: 1713.8 (projected team wins: 52)
7. Tobias Harris: 1706.1 (projected team wins: 56)
8. Damian Lillard: 1680.1 (projected team wins: 49)
9. Nikola Jokic: 1600.0 (projected team wins: 53)
10. Blake Griffin: 1597.9 (projected team wins: 48)
11. Marc Gasol: 1591.1 (projected team wins: 52)
12. Pascal Siakam: 1570.7 (projected team wins: 66)
13. Kawhi Leonard: 1565.5 (projected team wins: 66)
14. Khris Middleton: 1547.2 (projected team wins: 57)
15. Serge Ibaka: 1534.8 (projected team wins: 66)
16. Andre Drummond: 1518.1 (projected team wins: 48)
17. Kemba Walker: 1499.6 (projected team wins: 41)
18. Mike Conley: 1406.2 (projected team wins: 52)
19. Montrezl Harrell: 1400.4 (projected team wins: 56)
20. Klay Thompson: 1398.7 (projected team wins: 56)
21. Eric Bledsoe: 1393.7 (projected team wins: 57)
22. Danilo Gallinari: 1380.8 (projected team wins: 56)
23. Anthony Davis: 1363.5 (projected team wins: 39)
24. Jonas Valanciunas: 1354.0 (projected team wins: 66)
25. Ben Simmons: 1351.6 (projected team wins: 52)
26. Nikola Vucevic: 1325.8 (projected team wins: 39)
27. James Harden: 1311.0 (projected team wins: 39)
28. DeMar DeRozan: 1298.3 (projected team wins: 41)
29. Kyrie Irving: 1271.5 (projected team wins: 43)
30. Stephen Curry: 1268.2 (projected team wins: 56)
The race is pretty fierce right now. Kevin Durant 's projected MVP value got much lower because his team's projected number of wins decreased by 8. Giannis Antetokounmpo's MVP value remained roughly the same, but it was enough for him to advance to the second place. The MVP values of Joel Embiid and LeBron James increased meaningfully and they are now 3rd and 4th respectively. Interestingly Tobias Harris is at the 7th place!
Part 3 = the end of week 6. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 6 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Kevin Durant: 2264.8 (projected team wins: 56)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2158.1 (projected team wins: 57)
3. Joel Embiid: 2105.3 (projected team wins: 52)
4. LeBron James: 1872.9 (projected team wins: 47)
5. Kyle Lowry: 1865.8 (projected team wins: 66)
6. Paul George: 1713.8 (projected team wins: 52)
7. Tobias Harris: 1706.1 (projected team wins: 56)
8. Damian Lillard: 1680.1 (projected team wins: 49)
9. Nikola Jokic: 1600.0 (projected team wins: 53)
10. Blake Griffin: 1597.9 (projected team wins: 48)
11. Marc Gasol: 1591.1 (projected team wins: 52)
12. Pascal Siakam: 1570.7 (projected team wins: 66)
13. Kawhi Leonard: 1565.5 (projected team wins: 66)
14. Khris Middleton: 1547.2 (projected team wins: 57)
15. Serge Ibaka: 1534.8 (projected team wins: 66)
16. Andre Drummond: 1518.1 (projected team wins: 48)
17. Kemba Walker: 1499.6 (projected team wins: 41)
18. Mike Conley: 1406.2 (projected team wins: 52)
19. Montrezl Harrell: 1400.4 (projected team wins: 56)
20. Klay Thompson: 1398.7 (projected team wins: 56)
21. Eric Bledsoe: 1393.7 (projected team wins: 57)
22. Danilo Gallinari: 1380.8 (projected team wins: 56)
23. Anthony Davis: 1363.5 (projected team wins: 39)
24. Jonas Valanciunas: 1354.0 (projected team wins: 66)
25. Ben Simmons: 1351.6 (projected team wins: 52)
26. Nikola Vucevic: 1325.8 (projected team wins: 39)
27. James Harden: 1311.0 (projected team wins: 39)
28. DeMar DeRozan: 1298.3 (projected team wins: 41)
29. Kyrie Irving: 1271.5 (projected team wins: 43)
30. Stephen Curry: 1268.2 (projected team wins: 56)
The race is pretty fierce right now. Kevin Durant 's projected MVP value got much lower because his team's projected number of wins decreased by 8. Giannis Antetokounmpo's MVP value remained roughly the same, but it was enough for him to advance to the second place. The MVP values of Joel Embiid and LeBron James increased meaningfully and they are now 3rd and 4th respectively. Interestingly Tobias Harris is at the 7th place!
NBA 2019 MVP race – part 2
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 13 November 2018)
Part 2 = the end of week 4. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 4 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Kevin Durant: 2587.1 (projected team wins: 64)
2. Stephen Curry: 2277.6 (projected team wins: 64)
3. Damian Lillard: 2221.8 (projected team wins: 63)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2137.0 (projected team wins: 63)
5. Kyle Lowry: 2116.1 (projected team wins: 70)
6. Joel Embiid: 2018.8 (projected team wins: 49)
7. Nikola Jokic: 1878.8 (projected team wins: 57)
8. Serge Ibaka: 1767.3 (projected team wins: 70)
9. Khris Middleton: 1713.2 (projected team wins: 63)
10. LeBron James: 1637.2 (projected team wins: 44)
11. Kawhi Leonard: 1637.2 (projected team wins: 70)
12. Kemba Walker: 1631.0 (projected team wins: 44)
13. DeMar DeRozan: 1604.8 (projected team wins: 48)
14. Pascal Siakam: 1568.2 (projected team wins: 70)
15. Klay Thompson: 1538.1 (projected team wins: 64)
16. Paul George: 1532.2 (projected team wins: 50)
17. Jusuf Nurkic: 1511.6 (projected team wins: 63)
18. Victor Oladipo: 1494.0 (projected team wins: 47)
19. CJ McCollum: 1492.1 (projected team wins: 63)
20. Jonas Valanciunas: 1485.8 (projected team wins: 70)
21. Tobias Harris: 1440.2 (projected team wins: 50)
22. Eric Bledsoe: 1412.6 (projected team wins: 63)
23. Rudy Gobert: 1381.9 (projected team wins: 44)
24. Anthony Davis: 1365.6 (projected team wins: 44)
25. Blake Griffin: 1336.6 (projected team wins: 41)
26. Malcolm Brogdon: 1305.3 (projected team wins: 63)
27. Andre Drummond: 1295.4 (projected team wins: 41)
28. Brook Lopez: 1277.8 (projected team wins: 63)
29. Danilo Gallinari: 1273.1 (projected team wins: 50)
30. Jrue Holiday: 1268.6 (projected team wins: 44)
Stephen Curry's projected MVP value got much lower because right now he is projected to miss 12 games and hence his projected total “raw value” is much lower than Kevin Durant's. Joel Embiid's MVP value is dragged down by his team's projected number of wins, similarly to the MVP values of LeBron James and Kemba Walker.
Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kyle Lowry got into the top 5. They all should remain strong MVP candidates till the end of the season. Surprisingly Serge Ibaka is at the 8th place and Pascal Siakam is at the 14th place! Kawhi leonard is only at the 11th place, but he is projected to miss as many as 24 games.
Part 2 = the end of week 4. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 4 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Kevin Durant: 2587.1 (projected team wins: 64)
2. Stephen Curry: 2277.6 (projected team wins: 64)
3. Damian Lillard: 2221.8 (projected team wins: 63)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2137.0 (projected team wins: 63)
5. Kyle Lowry: 2116.1 (projected team wins: 70)
6. Joel Embiid: 2018.8 (projected team wins: 49)
7. Nikola Jokic: 1878.8 (projected team wins: 57)
8. Serge Ibaka: 1767.3 (projected team wins: 70)
9. Khris Middleton: 1713.2 (projected team wins: 63)
10. LeBron James: 1637.2 (projected team wins: 44)
11. Kawhi Leonard: 1637.2 (projected team wins: 70)
12. Kemba Walker: 1631.0 (projected team wins: 44)
13. DeMar DeRozan: 1604.8 (projected team wins: 48)
14. Pascal Siakam: 1568.2 (projected team wins: 70)
15. Klay Thompson: 1538.1 (projected team wins: 64)
16. Paul George: 1532.2 (projected team wins: 50)
17. Jusuf Nurkic: 1511.6 (projected team wins: 63)
18. Victor Oladipo: 1494.0 (projected team wins: 47)
19. CJ McCollum: 1492.1 (projected team wins: 63)
20. Jonas Valanciunas: 1485.8 (projected team wins: 70)
21. Tobias Harris: 1440.2 (projected team wins: 50)
22. Eric Bledsoe: 1412.6 (projected team wins: 63)
23. Rudy Gobert: 1381.9 (projected team wins: 44)
24. Anthony Davis: 1365.6 (projected team wins: 44)
25. Blake Griffin: 1336.6 (projected team wins: 41)
26. Malcolm Brogdon: 1305.3 (projected team wins: 63)
27. Andre Drummond: 1295.4 (projected team wins: 41)
28. Brook Lopez: 1277.8 (projected team wins: 63)
29. Danilo Gallinari: 1273.1 (projected team wins: 50)
30. Jrue Holiday: 1268.6 (projected team wins: 44)
Stephen Curry's projected MVP value got much lower because right now he is projected to miss 12 games and hence his projected total “raw value” is much lower than Kevin Durant's. Joel Embiid's MVP value is dragged down by his team's projected number of wins, similarly to the MVP values of LeBron James and Kemba Walker.
Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kyle Lowry got into the top 5. They all should remain strong MVP candidates till the end of the season. Surprisingly Serge Ibaka is at the 8th place and Pascal Siakam is at the 14th place! Kawhi leonard is only at the 11th place, but he is projected to miss as many as 24 games.
NBA 2019 MVP race – part 1
(Originally posted on Tuesday, 30 October 2018)
Part 1 = the end of week 2. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 2 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Stephen Curry: 3387.6 (projected team wins: 72)
2. Kevin Durant: 2936.9 (projected team wins: 72)
3. Nikola Jokic: 2675.8 (projected team wins: 68)
4. Blake Griffin: 2595.0 (projected team wins: 66)
5. Khris Middleton: 2573.8 (projected team wins: 82)
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2507.9 (projected team wins: 82)
7. Kyle Lowry: 2374.9 (projected team wins: 70)
8. Damian Lillard: 2263.0 (projected team wins: 55)
9. DeMar DeRozan: 2071.0 (projected team wins: 55)
10. Eric Bledsoe: 1936.0 (projected team wins: 82)
11. Rudy Gobert: 1869.6 (projected team wins: 55)
12. Gary Harris: 1845.0 (projected team wins: 68)
13. Kawhi Leonard: 1828.0 (projected team wins: 70)
14. Joel Embiid: 1823.8 (projected team wins: 47)
15. Nikola Mirotic: 1763.5 (projected team wins: 55)
16. Anthony Davis: 1751.3 (projected team wins: 55)
17. Andre Drummond: 1751.3 (projected team wins: 66)
18. Tobias Harris: 1627.8 (projected team wins: 55)
19. Klay Thompson: 1578.4 (projected team wins: 72)
20. Malcolm Brogdon: 1531.3 (projected team wins: 82)
21. Serge Ibaka: 1530.7 (projected team wins: 70)
22. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1484.9 (projected team wins: 55)
23. Brook Lopez: 1481.4 (projected team wins: 82)
24. Danilo Gallinari: 1469.1 (projected team wins: 55)
25. Jamal Murray: 1465.1 (projected team wins: 68)
26. Kemba Walker: 1428.9 (projected team wins: 35)
27. Ersan Ilyasova: 1426.8 (projected team wins: 82)
28. Draymond Green: 1393.8 (projected team wins: 72)
29. Jonas Valanciunas: 1393.5 (projected team wins: 70)
30. Danny Green: 1376.4 (projected team wins: 70)
Even though the Milwaukee Bucks are the only unbeatable team in the NBA, it's Stephen (Stephenomenon) Curry who is the first clear leader of the race. LeBron James is not on the list, but only because the projected number of wins by his new team is 23 right now.
Please notice that Khris Middleton is ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo only because Antetokounmpo missed 1 game (out of 7), so his projected overall value is relatively low because he is projected to miss almost 12 games during the whole season. Hopefully he will be healthy and won't miss so many games.
Part 1 = the end of week 2. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP value in this post:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 2 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:
1. Stephen Curry: 3387.6 (projected team wins: 72)
2. Kevin Durant: 2936.9 (projected team wins: 72)
3. Nikola Jokic: 2675.8 (projected team wins: 68)
4. Blake Griffin: 2595.0 (projected team wins: 66)
5. Khris Middleton: 2573.8 (projected team wins: 82)
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2507.9 (projected team wins: 82)
7. Kyle Lowry: 2374.9 (projected team wins: 70)
8. Damian Lillard: 2263.0 (projected team wins: 55)
9. DeMar DeRozan: 2071.0 (projected team wins: 55)
10. Eric Bledsoe: 1936.0 (projected team wins: 82)
11. Rudy Gobert: 1869.6 (projected team wins: 55)
12. Gary Harris: 1845.0 (projected team wins: 68)
13. Kawhi Leonard: 1828.0 (projected team wins: 70)
14. Joel Embiid: 1823.8 (projected team wins: 47)
15. Nikola Mirotic: 1763.5 (projected team wins: 55)
16. Anthony Davis: 1751.3 (projected team wins: 55)
17. Andre Drummond: 1751.3 (projected team wins: 66)
18. Tobias Harris: 1627.8 (projected team wins: 55)
19. Klay Thompson: 1578.4 (projected team wins: 72)
20. Malcolm Brogdon: 1531.3 (projected team wins: 82)
21. Serge Ibaka: 1530.7 (projected team wins: 70)
22. LaMarcus Aldridge: 1484.9 (projected team wins: 55)
23. Brook Lopez: 1481.4 (projected team wins: 82)
24. Danilo Gallinari: 1469.1 (projected team wins: 55)
25. Jamal Murray: 1465.1 (projected team wins: 68)
26. Kemba Walker: 1428.9 (projected team wins: 35)
27. Ersan Ilyasova: 1426.8 (projected team wins: 82)
28. Draymond Green: 1393.8 (projected team wins: 72)
29. Jonas Valanciunas: 1393.5 (projected team wins: 70)
30. Danny Green: 1376.4 (projected team wins: 70)
Even though the Milwaukee Bucks are the only unbeatable team in the NBA, it's Stephen (Stephenomenon) Curry who is the first clear leader of the race. LeBron James is not on the list, but only because the projected number of wins by his new team is 23 right now.
Please notice that Khris Middleton is ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo only because Antetokounmpo missed 1 game (out of 7), so his projected overall value is relatively low because he is projected to miss almost 12 games during the whole season. Hopefully he will be healthy and won't miss so many games.
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