(Originally posted on Saturday, 19 November 2022)
For the sake of completeness I have to post these final lists for the season 2021-22.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Because of the pandemic some players missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.
The final NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 1987.4 (team wins: 48)
2. Joel Embiid: 1834.6 (team wins: 51)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1817.0 (team wins: 51)
4. Devin Booker: 1785.2 (team wins: 64)
5. Jayson Tatum: 1678.0 (team wins: 51)
6. Luka Doncic: 1626.2 (team wins: 52)
7. Trae Young: 1503.3 (team wins: 43)
8. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1494.1 (team wins: 46)
9. DeMar DeRozan: 1460.2 (team wins: 46)
10. Chris Paul: 1448.1 (team wins: 64)
11. Stephen Curry: 1445.4 (team wins: 53)
12. Mikal Bridges: 1359.0 (team wins: 64)
13. Ja Morant: 1335.7 (team wins: 56)
14. Desmond Bane: 1297.4 (team wins: 56)
15. Pascal Siakam: 1278.5 (team wins: 48)
16. Donovan Mitchell: 1275.6 (team wins: 49)
17. Deandre Ayton: 1234.4 (team wins: 64)
18. Rudy Gobert: 1233.5 (team wins: 49)
19. Kevin Durant: 1221.3 (team wins: 44)
20. Miles Bridges: 1220.4 (team wins: 43)
Nikola Jokic won the race and he also became the official NBA 2021-22 MVP, which means that my way of calculating MVP value is simply fantastic. In the last 46 NBA seasons my calculations were perfect (1st place on my list was the official MVP) 30 times and almost perfect (2nd place on my list was the official MVP) 9 times. So my calculations were either perfect or almost perfect 39 times in the last 46 NBA seasons! This is 85% of accuracy!
Joel Embiid finished second and to me it seems that it was the best opportunity EVER to give him the MVP award.
The final NBA 2022 MFP list is this:
1. Christian Wood: 918.5 (team wins: 20)
2. Saddiq Bey: 808.4 (team wins: 23)
3. LeBron James: 771.3 (team wins: 33)
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 770.6 (team wins: 24)
5. Franz Wagner: 748.6 (team wins: 22)
6. Dejounte Murray: 743.7 (team wins: 34)
7. Wendell Carter Jr.: 727.4 (team wins: 22)
8. Cole Anthony: 677.9 (team wins: 22)
9. Jae'Sean Tate: 671.3 (team wins: 20)
10. Mo Bamba: 660.7 (team wins: 22)
11. Harrison Barnes: 649.4 (team wins: 30)
12. Cade Cunningham: 646.9 (team wins: 23)
13. Jalen Green: 645.2 (team wins: 20)
14. Kevin Porter Jr.: 638.6 (team wins: 20)
15. Russell Westbrook: 638.1 (team wins: 33)
16. Jonas Valanciunas: 616.6 (team wins: 36)
17. Trae Young: 594.3 (team wins: 43)
18. De'Aaron Fox: 592.6 (team wins: 30)
19. Jusuf Nurkic: 555.9 (team wins: 27)
20. Julius Randle: 553.7 (team wins: 37)
There is only 1 player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Trae Young (7th and 17th).
LeBron James became the first player ever (in the time-span of my calculations, so starting from the season 1976-77) who had been in the top-3 on an MVP list BEFORE he was in the top-3 list on an MFP list. All the previous times it was the other way round.
Showing posts with label 11f – NBA 2022 MVP race. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 11f – NBA 2022 MVP race. Show all posts
Saturday, 19 November 2022
Sunday, 27 March 2022
NBA 2022 MVP race – part 4
(Originally posted on Sunday, 27 March 2022)
Part 4 ends with games played on 26 March 2022.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 1957.9 (projected team wins: 48)
2. Devin Booker: 1871.4 (projected team wins: 66)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1828.8 (projected team wins: 51)
4. Joel Embiid: 1809.8 (projected team wins: 52)
5. Jayson Tatum: 1706.4 (projected team wins: 51)
6. Stephen Curry: 1601.7 (projected team wins: 53)
7. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1545.8 (projected team wins: 47)
8. DeMar DeRozan: 1524.3 (projected team wins: 48)
9. Chris Paul: 1513.7 (projected team wins: 66)
10. Luka Doncic: 1472.8 (projected team wins: 50)
11. Ja Morant: 1464.0 (projected team wins: 57)
12. Mikal Bridges: 1428.8 (projected team wins: 66)
13. Trae Young: 1404.6 (projected team wins: 41)
14. Desmond Bane: 1343.2 (projected team wins: 57)
15. Donovan Mitchell: 1334.2 (projected team wins: 50)
16. Deandre Ayton: 1296.3 (projected team wins: 66)
17. Jaren Jackson Jr.: 1263.4 (projected team wins: 57)
18. Nikola Vucevic: 1243.4 (projected team wins: 48)
19. Rudy Gobert: 1243.0 (projected team wins: 50)
20. Zach LaVine: 1238.2 (projected team wins: 48)
Nikola Jokic is the leader of the race, but I think his team's seed is too low for him to win the MVP award. I think Devin Booker will not win the MVP award over Chris Paul. Giannis Antetokounmpo already has two MVP awards, so it seems that this year belongs to Joel Embiid.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:
1. Christian Wood: 954.0 (projected team wins: 22)
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 877.6 (projected team wins: 23)
3. Saddiq Bey: 846.6 (projected team wins: 22)
4. Dejounte Murray: 810.3 (projected team wins: 33)
5. Franz Wagner: 790.3 (projected team wins: 22)
6. Wendell Carter Jr.: 784.1 (projected team wins: 22)
7. LeBron James: 769.8 (projected team wins: 35)
8. Cole Anthony: 722.0 (projected team wins: 22)
9. Jonas Valanciunas: 690.9 (projected team wins: 34)
10. Cade Cunningham: 665.7 (projected team wins: 22)
11. Harrison Barnes: 663.5 (projected team wins: 30)
12. Trae Young: 650.9 (projected team wins: 41)
13. Jae'Sean Tate: 648.8 (projected team wins: 22)
14. De'Aaron Fox: 648.0 (projected team wins: 30)
15. Julius Randle: 646.4 (projected team wins: 35)
16. Mo Bamba: 631.5 (projected team wins: 22)
17. Russell Westbrook: 604.0 (projected team wins: 35)
18. Jerami Grant: 571.8 (projected team wins: 22)
19. Darius Bazley: 566.8 (projected team wins: 23)
20. Kyle Kuzma: 561.0 (projected team wins: 35)
Currently there is only 1 player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Trae Young (13th and 12th).
Part 4 ends with games played on 26 March 2022.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:
1. Nikola Jokic: 1957.9 (projected team wins: 48)
2. Devin Booker: 1871.4 (projected team wins: 66)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1828.8 (projected team wins: 51)
4. Joel Embiid: 1809.8 (projected team wins: 52)
5. Jayson Tatum: 1706.4 (projected team wins: 51)
6. Stephen Curry: 1601.7 (projected team wins: 53)
7. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1545.8 (projected team wins: 47)
8. DeMar DeRozan: 1524.3 (projected team wins: 48)
9. Chris Paul: 1513.7 (projected team wins: 66)
10. Luka Doncic: 1472.8 (projected team wins: 50)
11. Ja Morant: 1464.0 (projected team wins: 57)
12. Mikal Bridges: 1428.8 (projected team wins: 66)
13. Trae Young: 1404.6 (projected team wins: 41)
14. Desmond Bane: 1343.2 (projected team wins: 57)
15. Donovan Mitchell: 1334.2 (projected team wins: 50)
16. Deandre Ayton: 1296.3 (projected team wins: 66)
17. Jaren Jackson Jr.: 1263.4 (projected team wins: 57)
18. Nikola Vucevic: 1243.4 (projected team wins: 48)
19. Rudy Gobert: 1243.0 (projected team wins: 50)
20. Zach LaVine: 1238.2 (projected team wins: 48)
Nikola Jokic is the leader of the race, but I think his team's seed is too low for him to win the MVP award. I think Devin Booker will not win the MVP award over Chris Paul. Giannis Antetokounmpo already has two MVP awards, so it seems that this year belongs to Joel Embiid.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:
1. Christian Wood: 954.0 (projected team wins: 22)
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 877.6 (projected team wins: 23)
3. Saddiq Bey: 846.6 (projected team wins: 22)
4. Dejounte Murray: 810.3 (projected team wins: 33)
5. Franz Wagner: 790.3 (projected team wins: 22)
6. Wendell Carter Jr.: 784.1 (projected team wins: 22)
7. LeBron James: 769.8 (projected team wins: 35)
8. Cole Anthony: 722.0 (projected team wins: 22)
9. Jonas Valanciunas: 690.9 (projected team wins: 34)
10. Cade Cunningham: 665.7 (projected team wins: 22)
11. Harrison Barnes: 663.5 (projected team wins: 30)
12. Trae Young: 650.9 (projected team wins: 41)
13. Jae'Sean Tate: 648.8 (projected team wins: 22)
14. De'Aaron Fox: 648.0 (projected team wins: 30)
15. Julius Randle: 646.4 (projected team wins: 35)
16. Mo Bamba: 631.5 (projected team wins: 22)
17. Russell Westbrook: 604.0 (projected team wins: 35)
18. Jerami Grant: 571.8 (projected team wins: 22)
19. Darius Bazley: 566.8 (projected team wins: 23)
20. Kyle Kuzma: 561.0 (projected team wins: 35)
Currently there is only 1 player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Trae Young (13th and 12th).
Thursday, 24 February 2022
NBA 2022 MVP race – part 3
(Originally posted on Thursday, 24 February 2022)
Part 3 ends with games played on 17th February 2022.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:
1. Chris Paul: 1948.8 (projected team wins: 68)
2. Nikola Jokic: 1875.2 (projected team wins: 47)
3. Stephen Curry: 1869.3 (projected team wins: 58)
4. Devin Booker: 1864.7 (projected team wins: 68)
5. DeMar DeRozan: 1734.7 (projected team wins: 53)
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1720.3 (projected team wins: 49)
7. Joel Embiid: 1639.3 (projected team wins: 49)
8. Ja Morant: 1462.3 (projected team wins: 56)
9. Jayson Tatum: 1432.5 (projected team wins: 46)
10. Nikola Vucevic: 1405.5 (projected team wins: 53)
11. Luka Doncic: 1392.5 (projected team wins: 49)
12. Mikal Bridges: 1387.9 (projected team wins: 68)
13. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1352.9 (projected team wins: 43)
14. Trae Young: 1329.4 (projected team wins: 40)
15. Zach LaVine: 1311.8 (projected team wins: 53)
16. Donovan Mitchell: 1300.1 (projected team wins: 51)
17. Fred VanVleet: 1273.7 (projected team wins: 46)
18. Desmond Bane: 1261.3 (projected team wins: 56)
19. Jaren Jackson Jr.: 1252.0 (projected team wins: 56)
20. Rudy Gobert: 1231.9 (projected team wins: 51)
Recently I felt as if something (somebody?) were pushing me to make my MVP calculations and I wondered why. When I look at the list above I know why – this year Chris Paul had a legit shot at the MVP award. It seems that Phoenix Suns could win 68 games! Unfortunately he suffered an injury and his MVP value will go down very quickly.
It's worth to notice that DeMar DeRozan, after his historic span of games (that will hopefully last even longer), climbed to the 5th place ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. And Ja Morant is 8th – so far he has never been so high on the list.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:
1. Christian Wood: 970.4 (projected team wins: 21)
2. Saddiq Bey: 911.9 (projected team wins: 18)
3. Franz Wagner: 875.3 (projected team wins: 18)
4. Wendell Carter Jr.: 865.5 (projected team wins: 18)
5. Dejounte Murray: 824.5 (projected team wins: 32)
6. Cole Anthony: 779.4 (projected team wins: 18)
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 738.2 (projected team wins: 25)
8. Jonas Valanciunas: 726.2 (projected team wins: 32)
9. Jae'Sean Tate: 707.1 (projected team wins: 21)
10. Julius Randle: 669.4 (projected team wins: 35)
11. Trae Young: 664.7 (projected team wins: 40)
12. Harrison Barnes: 663.8 (projected team wins: 30)
13. Mo Bamba: 654.7 (projected team wins: 18)
14. Cade Cunningham: 652.7 (projected team wins: 18)
15. Josh Giddey: 647.9 (projected team wins: 25)
16. LeBron James: 639.5 (projected team wins: 38)
17. Luguentz Dort: 622.0 (projected team wins: 25)
18. De'Aaron Fox: 607.8 (projected team wins: 30)
19. Brandon Ingram: 591.8 (projected team wins: 32)
20. Jusuf Nurkic: 585.3 (projected team wins: 35)
Currently there is only 1 player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Trae Young (14th and 11th).
Part 3 ends with games played on 17th February 2022.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:
1. Chris Paul: 1948.8 (projected team wins: 68)
2. Nikola Jokic: 1875.2 (projected team wins: 47)
3. Stephen Curry: 1869.3 (projected team wins: 58)
4. Devin Booker: 1864.7 (projected team wins: 68)
5. DeMar DeRozan: 1734.7 (projected team wins: 53)
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1720.3 (projected team wins: 49)
7. Joel Embiid: 1639.3 (projected team wins: 49)
8. Ja Morant: 1462.3 (projected team wins: 56)
9. Jayson Tatum: 1432.5 (projected team wins: 46)
10. Nikola Vucevic: 1405.5 (projected team wins: 53)
11. Luka Doncic: 1392.5 (projected team wins: 49)
12. Mikal Bridges: 1387.9 (projected team wins: 68)
13. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1352.9 (projected team wins: 43)
14. Trae Young: 1329.4 (projected team wins: 40)
15. Zach LaVine: 1311.8 (projected team wins: 53)
16. Donovan Mitchell: 1300.1 (projected team wins: 51)
17. Fred VanVleet: 1273.7 (projected team wins: 46)
18. Desmond Bane: 1261.3 (projected team wins: 56)
19. Jaren Jackson Jr.: 1252.0 (projected team wins: 56)
20. Rudy Gobert: 1231.9 (projected team wins: 51)
Recently I felt as if something (somebody?) were pushing me to make my MVP calculations and I wondered why. When I look at the list above I know why – this year Chris Paul had a legit shot at the MVP award. It seems that Phoenix Suns could win 68 games! Unfortunately he suffered an injury and his MVP value will go down very quickly.
It's worth to notice that DeMar DeRozan, after his historic span of games (that will hopefully last even longer), climbed to the 5th place ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. And Ja Morant is 8th – so far he has never been so high on the list.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:
1. Christian Wood: 970.4 (projected team wins: 21)
2. Saddiq Bey: 911.9 (projected team wins: 18)
3. Franz Wagner: 875.3 (projected team wins: 18)
4. Wendell Carter Jr.: 865.5 (projected team wins: 18)
5. Dejounte Murray: 824.5 (projected team wins: 32)
6. Cole Anthony: 779.4 (projected team wins: 18)
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 738.2 (projected team wins: 25)
8. Jonas Valanciunas: 726.2 (projected team wins: 32)
9. Jae'Sean Tate: 707.1 (projected team wins: 21)
10. Julius Randle: 669.4 (projected team wins: 35)
11. Trae Young: 664.7 (projected team wins: 40)
12. Harrison Barnes: 663.8 (projected team wins: 30)
13. Mo Bamba: 654.7 (projected team wins: 18)
14. Cade Cunningham: 652.7 (projected team wins: 18)
15. Josh Giddey: 647.9 (projected team wins: 25)
16. LeBron James: 639.5 (projected team wins: 38)
17. Luguentz Dort: 622.0 (projected team wins: 25)
18. De'Aaron Fox: 607.8 (projected team wins: 30)
19. Brandon Ingram: 591.8 (projected team wins: 32)
20. Jusuf Nurkic: 585.3 (projected team wins: 35)
Currently there is only 1 player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Trae Young (14th and 11th).
Sunday, 30 January 2022
NBA 2022 MVP race – part 2
(Originally posted on 30 January 2022)
Part 2 ends with games played on 29 January 2022.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:
1. Stephen Curry: 1957.8 (projected team wins: 61)
2. Chris Paul: 1877.3 (projected team wins: 67)
3. Nikola Jokic: 1850.7 (projected team wins: 46)
4. Devin Booker: 1759.5 (projected team wins: 67)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1663.7 (projected team wins: 50)
6. Joel Embiid: 1597.5 (projected team wins: 50)
7. DeMar DeRozan: 1528.7 (projected team wins: 51)
8. James Harden: 1506.6 (projected team wins: 49)
9. Kevin Durant: 1447.4 (projected team wins: 49)
10. Ja Morant: 1395.0 (projected team wins: 55)
11. Zach LaVine: 1360.7 (projected team wins: 51)
12. Rudy Gobert: 1333.5 (projected team wins: 49)
13. Andrew Wiggins: 1298.3 (projected team wins: 61)
14. Jayson Tatum: 1293.1 (projected team wins: 42)
15. Miles Bridges: 1291.6 (projected team wins: 46)
16. Trae Young: 1281.1 (projected team wins: 39)
17. Mikal Bridges: 1248.5 (projected team wins: 67)
18. Donovan Mitchell: 1216.3 (projected team wins: 49)
19. Nikola Vucevic: 1214.9 (projected team wins: 51)
20. Desmond Bane: 1207.6 (projected team wins: 55)
Stephen Curry is still the leader of the race. Chris Paul and Devin Booker complement each other perfectly. Nikola Jokic is again awesome, considering especially the number of big injuries on his team. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid are also great, but their MVP values are a little too low for them to be true contenders.
It's worth to mention that there are 3 surprising names on the list: Miles Bridges, Mikal Bridges and Desmond Bane. Respect!
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:
1. Christian Wood: 924.8 (projected team wins: 23)
2. Franz Wagner: 920.2 (projected team wins: 16)
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 917.5 (projected team wins: 24)
4. Domantas Sabonis: 912.3 (projected team wins: 29)
5. Dejounte Murray: 847.1 (projected team wins: 31)
6. Wendell Carter Jr.: 840.8 (projected team wins: 16)
7. Saddiq Bey: 828.1 (projected team wins: 19)
8. Cole Anthony: 779.1 (projected team wins: 16)
9. Jonas Valanciunas: 773.9 (projected team wins: 30)
10. Tyrese Haliburton: 712.2 (projected team wins: 29)
11. Cade Cunningham: 697.2 (projected team wins: 19)
12. Trae Young: 689.8 (projected team wins: 39)
13. Mo Bamba: 685.1 (projected team wins: 16)
14. Jae'Sean Tate: 673.8 (projected team wins: 23)
15. Harrison Barnes: 649.3 (projected team wins: 29)
16. Luguentz Dort: 639.8 (projected team wins: 24)
17. De'Aaron Fox: 635.7 (projected team wins: 29)
18. LeBron James: 624.2 (projected team wins: 39)
19. Brandon Ingram: 618.4 (projected team wins: 30)
20. Josh Giddey: 617.6 (projected team wins: 24)
Currently there is only 1 player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Trae Young (16th and 12th). Interestingly LeBron James is only on the MFP list while Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis aren't on either list.
Part 2 ends with games played on 29 January 2022.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:
1. Stephen Curry: 1957.8 (projected team wins: 61)
2. Chris Paul: 1877.3 (projected team wins: 67)
3. Nikola Jokic: 1850.7 (projected team wins: 46)
4. Devin Booker: 1759.5 (projected team wins: 67)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1663.7 (projected team wins: 50)
6. Joel Embiid: 1597.5 (projected team wins: 50)
7. DeMar DeRozan: 1528.7 (projected team wins: 51)
8. James Harden: 1506.6 (projected team wins: 49)
9. Kevin Durant: 1447.4 (projected team wins: 49)
10. Ja Morant: 1395.0 (projected team wins: 55)
11. Zach LaVine: 1360.7 (projected team wins: 51)
12. Rudy Gobert: 1333.5 (projected team wins: 49)
13. Andrew Wiggins: 1298.3 (projected team wins: 61)
14. Jayson Tatum: 1293.1 (projected team wins: 42)
15. Miles Bridges: 1291.6 (projected team wins: 46)
16. Trae Young: 1281.1 (projected team wins: 39)
17. Mikal Bridges: 1248.5 (projected team wins: 67)
18. Donovan Mitchell: 1216.3 (projected team wins: 49)
19. Nikola Vucevic: 1214.9 (projected team wins: 51)
20. Desmond Bane: 1207.6 (projected team wins: 55)
Stephen Curry is still the leader of the race. Chris Paul and Devin Booker complement each other perfectly. Nikola Jokic is again awesome, considering especially the number of big injuries on his team. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid are also great, but their MVP values are a little too low for them to be true contenders.
It's worth to mention that there are 3 surprising names on the list: Miles Bridges, Mikal Bridges and Desmond Bane. Respect!
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:
1. Christian Wood: 924.8 (projected team wins: 23)
2. Franz Wagner: 920.2 (projected team wins: 16)
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 917.5 (projected team wins: 24)
4. Domantas Sabonis: 912.3 (projected team wins: 29)
5. Dejounte Murray: 847.1 (projected team wins: 31)
6. Wendell Carter Jr.: 840.8 (projected team wins: 16)
7. Saddiq Bey: 828.1 (projected team wins: 19)
8. Cole Anthony: 779.1 (projected team wins: 16)
9. Jonas Valanciunas: 773.9 (projected team wins: 30)
10. Tyrese Haliburton: 712.2 (projected team wins: 29)
11. Cade Cunningham: 697.2 (projected team wins: 19)
12. Trae Young: 689.8 (projected team wins: 39)
13. Mo Bamba: 685.1 (projected team wins: 16)
14. Jae'Sean Tate: 673.8 (projected team wins: 23)
15. Harrison Barnes: 649.3 (projected team wins: 29)
16. Luguentz Dort: 639.8 (projected team wins: 24)
17. De'Aaron Fox: 635.7 (projected team wins: 29)
18. LeBron James: 624.2 (projected team wins: 39)
19. Brandon Ingram: 618.4 (projected team wins: 30)
20. Josh Giddey: 617.6 (projected team wins: 24)
Currently there is only 1 player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Trae Young (16th and 12th). Interestingly LeBron James is only on the MFP list while Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis aren't on either list.
Sunday, 2 August 2015
NBA 2022 MVP race – part 1
(Originally posted on Sunday, 28 November 2021)
Part 1 ends with games played on 27 November 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:
1. Stephen Curry: 2856.4 (projected team wins: 73)
2. Kevin Durant: 2137.3 (projected team wins: 57)
3. Devin Booker: 2055.4 (projected team wins: 70)
4. Chris Paul: 1937.7 (projected team wins: 70)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1904.8 (projected team wins: 49)
6. James Harden: 1876.8 (projected team wins: 57)
7. Andrew Wiggins: 1718.2 (projected team wins: 73)
8. DeMar DeRozan: 1635.0 (projected team wins: 51)
9. Rudy Gobert: 1596.5 (projected team wins: 53)
10. Jordan Poole: 1594.1 (projected team wins: 73)
11. Zach LaVine: 1570.4 (projected team wins: 51)
12. Paul George: 1522.8 (projected team wins: 47)
13. Jimmy Butler: 1518.4 (projected team wins: 53)
14. LaMelo Ball: 1496.8 (projected team wins: 48)
15. Draymond Green: 1476.0 (projected team wins: 73)
16. Trae Young: 1462.4 (projected team wins: 43)
17. Montrezl Harrell: 1425.3 (projected team wins: 53)
18. Mikal Bridges: 1400.2 (projected team wins: 70)
19. Donovan Mitchell: 1391.6 (projected team wins: 53)
20. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1370.8 (projected team wins: 41)
Stephen Curry is again phenomenal (Ste-phen-omenon Curry) and he's the clear leader of the race. Personally I like the fact that DeMar DeRozan is back on the list after being stuck on the San Antonio Spurs team for the last 3 years, with ageing Gregg Popovich making some really strange decisions (like taking Derrick White to the 2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup or taking Keldon Johnson to the 2020 Summer Olympics – yes, it had nothing to do with the NBA, but it clearly showed the state of mind of Popovich – to me it was totally unacceptable “by default”). It's also good that DeRozan helped Zach LaVine get on the list, while the Chicago Bulls are again a very strong team overall.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:
1. Jonas Valanciunas: 1228.0 (projected team wins: 19)
2. Christian Wood: 1185.2 (projected team wins: 13)
3. Dejounte Murray: 1136.1 (projected team wins: 23)
4. Wendell Carter Jr.: 1038.8 (projected team wins: 16)
5. Jerami Grant: 943.0 (projected team wins: 17)
6. Cole Anthony: 939.3 (projected team wins: 16)
7. Mo Bamba: 884.6 (projected team wins: 16)
8. Jae'Sean Tate: 768.1 (projected team wins: 13)
9. Franz Wagner: 764.6 (projected team wins: 16)
10. Saddiq Bey: 755.2 (projected team wins: 17)
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 753.6 (projected team wins: 26)
12. Keldon Johnson: 736.7 (projected team wins: 23)
13. Domantas Sabonis: 729.1 (projected team wins: 35)
14. Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 709.3 (projected team wins: 19)
15. Anthony Davis: 696.5 (projected team wins: 39)
16. Harrison Barnes: 690.0 (projected team wins: 33)
17. Nikola Jokic: 684.4 (projected team wins: 39)
18. Luguentz Dort: 674.6 (projected team wins: 26)
19. Derrick White: 670.8 (projected team wins: 23)
20. Josh Hart: 670.5 (projected team wins: 19)
Currently not a single player is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
Part 1 ends with games played on 27 November 2021.
All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players
Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).
Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.
With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:
1. Stephen Curry: 2856.4 (projected team wins: 73)
2. Kevin Durant: 2137.3 (projected team wins: 57)
3. Devin Booker: 2055.4 (projected team wins: 70)
4. Chris Paul: 1937.7 (projected team wins: 70)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1904.8 (projected team wins: 49)
6. James Harden: 1876.8 (projected team wins: 57)
7. Andrew Wiggins: 1718.2 (projected team wins: 73)
8. DeMar DeRozan: 1635.0 (projected team wins: 51)
9. Rudy Gobert: 1596.5 (projected team wins: 53)
10. Jordan Poole: 1594.1 (projected team wins: 73)
11. Zach LaVine: 1570.4 (projected team wins: 51)
12. Paul George: 1522.8 (projected team wins: 47)
13. Jimmy Butler: 1518.4 (projected team wins: 53)
14. LaMelo Ball: 1496.8 (projected team wins: 48)
15. Draymond Green: 1476.0 (projected team wins: 73)
16. Trae Young: 1462.4 (projected team wins: 43)
17. Montrezl Harrell: 1425.3 (projected team wins: 53)
18. Mikal Bridges: 1400.2 (projected team wins: 70)
19. Donovan Mitchell: 1391.6 (projected team wins: 53)
20. Karl-Anthony Towns: 1370.8 (projected team wins: 41)
Stephen Curry is again phenomenal (Ste-phen-omenon Curry) and he's the clear leader of the race. Personally I like the fact that DeMar DeRozan is back on the list after being stuck on the San Antonio Spurs team for the last 3 years, with ageing Gregg Popovich making some really strange decisions (like taking Derrick White to the 2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup or taking Keldon Johnson to the 2020 Summer Olympics – yes, it had nothing to do with the NBA, but it clearly showed the state of mind of Popovich – to me it was totally unacceptable “by default”). It's also good that DeRozan helped Zach LaVine get on the list, while the Chicago Bulls are again a very strong team overall.
With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:
1. Jonas Valanciunas: 1228.0 (projected team wins: 19)
2. Christian Wood: 1185.2 (projected team wins: 13)
3. Dejounte Murray: 1136.1 (projected team wins: 23)
4. Wendell Carter Jr.: 1038.8 (projected team wins: 16)
5. Jerami Grant: 943.0 (projected team wins: 17)
6. Cole Anthony: 939.3 (projected team wins: 16)
7. Mo Bamba: 884.6 (projected team wins: 16)
8. Jae'Sean Tate: 768.1 (projected team wins: 13)
9. Franz Wagner: 764.6 (projected team wins: 16)
10. Saddiq Bey: 755.2 (projected team wins: 17)
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 753.6 (projected team wins: 26)
12. Keldon Johnson: 736.7 (projected team wins: 23)
13. Domantas Sabonis: 729.1 (projected team wins: 35)
14. Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 709.3 (projected team wins: 19)
15. Anthony Davis: 696.5 (projected team wins: 39)
16. Harrison Barnes: 690.0 (projected team wins: 33)
17. Nikola Jokic: 684.4 (projected team wins: 39)
18. Luguentz Dort: 674.6 (projected team wins: 26)
19. Derrick White: 670.8 (projected team wins: 23)
20. Josh Hart: 670.5 (projected team wins: 19)
Currently not a single player is in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)