NBA 2022 MVP race – part 3

(Originally posted on Thursday, 24 February 2022)

Part 3 ends with games played on 17th February 2022.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:

1. Chris Paul:    1948.8    (projected team wins: 68)
2. Nikola Jokic:    1875.2    (projected team wins: 47)
3. Stephen Curry:    1869.3    (projected team wins: 58)
4. Devin Booker:    1864.7    (projected team wins: 68)
5. DeMar DeRozan:    1734.7    (projected team wins: 53)
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    1720.3    (projected team wins: 49)
7. Joel Embiid:    1639.3    (projected team wins: 49)
8. Ja Morant:    1462.3    (projected team wins: 56)
9. Jayson Tatum:    1432.5    (projected team wins: 46)
10. Nikola Vucevic:    1405.5    (projected team wins: 53)
11. Luka Doncic:    1392.5    (projected team wins: 49)
12. Mikal Bridges:    1387.9    (projected team wins: 68)
13. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1352.9    (projected team wins: 43)
14. Trae Young:    1329.4    (projected team wins: 40)
15. Zach LaVine:    1311.8    (projected team wins: 53)
16. Donovan Mitchell:    1300.1    (projected team wins: 51)
17. Fred VanVleet:    1273.7    (projected team wins: 46)
18. Desmond Bane:    1261.3    (projected team wins: 56)
19. Jaren Jackson Jr.:    1252.0    (projected team wins: 56)
20. Rudy Gobert:    1231.9    (projected team wins: 51)

Recently I felt as if something (somebody?) were pushing me to make my MVP calculations and I wondered why. When I look at the list above I know why – this year Chris Paul had a legit shot at the MVP award. It seems that Phoenix Suns could win 68 games! Unfortunately he suffered an injury and his MVP value will go down very quickly.

It's worth to notice that DeMar DeRozan, after his historic span of games (that will hopefully last even longer), climbed to the 5th place ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. And Ja Morant is 8th – so far he has never been so high on the list.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:

1. Christian Wood:    970.4    (projected team wins: 21)
2. Saddiq Bey:    911.9    (projected team wins: 18)
3. Franz Wagner:    875.3    (projected team wins: 18)
4. Wendell Carter Jr.:    865.5    (projected team wins: 18)
5. Dejounte Murray:    824.5    (projected team wins: 32)
6. Cole Anthony:    779.4    (projected team wins: 18)
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    738.2    (projected team wins: 25)
8. Jonas Valanciunas:    726.2    (projected team wins: 32)
9. Jae'Sean Tate:    707.1    (projected team wins: 21)
10. Julius Randle:    669.4    (projected team wins: 35)
11. Trae Young:    664.7    (projected team wins: 40)
12. Harrison Barnes:    663.8    (projected team wins: 30)
13. Mo Bamba:    654.7    (projected team wins: 18)
14. Cade Cunningham:    652.7    (projected team wins: 18)
15. Josh Giddey:    647.9    (projected team wins: 25)
16. LeBron James:    639.5    (projected team wins: 38)
17. Luguentz Dort:    622.0    (projected team wins: 25)
18. De'Aaron Fox:    607.8    (projected team wins: 30)
19. Brandon Ingram:    591.8    (projected team wins: 32)
20. Jusuf Nurkic:    585.3    (projected team wins: 35)

Currently there is only 1 player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Trae Young (14th and 11th).