NBA 2019 MVP race (part 11) and NBA 2019 MFPs (part 5)

(Originally posted on Tuesday, 19 March 2019)

Part 11 = the end of week 22. Please remember that the season started on Tuesday, so to me every week ends with games played on Monday.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2018-19 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, according to the data from the end of week 22 the current NBA 2019 MVP race list is this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2397.1    (projected team wins: 61)
2. James Harden:    2270.4    (projected team wins: 52)
3. Kevin Durant:    2015.0    (projected team wins: 56)
4. Nikola Jokic:    1928.0    (projected team wins: 56)
5. Stephen Curry:    1801.1    (projected team wins: 56)
6. Paul George:    1790.8    (projected team wins: 49)
7. Joel Embiid:    1743.3    (projected team wins: 53)
8. Damian Lillard:    1731.4    (projected team wins: 50)
9. Kawhi Leonard:    1513.5    (projected team wins: 58)
10. Russell Westbrook:    1495.9    (projected team wins: 49)
11. Ben Simmons:    1491.0    (projected team wins: 53)
12. Klay Thompson:    1486.5    (projected team wins: 56)
13. Rudy Gobert:    1451.6    (projected team wins: 48)
14. LaMarcus Aldridge:    1426.5    (projected team wins: 49)
15. Kyrie Irving:    1425.8    (projected team wins: 50)
16. Khris Middleton:    1419.4    (projected team wins: 61)
17. Pascal Siakam:    1416.3    (projected team wins: 58)
18. Eric Bledsoe:    1407.2    (projected team wins: 61)
19. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1354.6    (projected team wins: 37)
20. DeMar DeRozan:    1302.5    (projected team wins: 49)
21. Blake Griffin:    1288.8    (projected team wins: 42)
22. Jusuf Nurkic:    1279.5    (projected team wins: 50)
23. Nikola Vucevic:    1273.3    (projected team wins: 38)
24. Malcolm Brogdon:    1247.5    (projected team wins: 61)
25. CJ McCollum:    1247.5    (projected team wins: 50)
26. Kyle Lowry:    1227.6    (projected team wins: 58)
27. Andre Drummond:    1214.2    (projected team wins: 42)
28. Brook Lopez:    1211.6    (projected team wins: 61)
29. Clint Capela:    1201.6    (projected team wins: 52)
30. Bradley Beal:    1196.2    (projected team wins: 35)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the leader of the race, but James Harden got quite close to him. It seems to me that one of them will get the award.

Interestingly, Stephen Curry got back to the top-5 (he missed 11 games in the November 2018).

With the same assumptions (described above), according to the data from the end of week 22 the current NBA 2019 MFP list is this:

1. Deandre Ayton:    989.9    (projected team wins: 19)
2. Devin Booker:    983.8    (projected team wins: 19)
3. Zach LaVine:    904.0    (projected team wins: 23)
4. Bradley Beal:    854.4    (projected team wins: 35)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns:    842.0    (projected team wins: 37)
6. Anthony Davis:    787.2    (projected team wins: 35)
7. Trae Young:    753.5    (projected team wins: 28)
8. Jordan Clarkson:    738.3    (projected team wins: 21)
9. Nikola Vucevic:    737.2    (projected team wins: 38)
10. Mike Conley:    728.8    (projected team wins: 33)
11. Kemba Walker:    718.9    (projected team wins: 37)
12. Luka Doncic:    705.8    (projected team wins: 33)
13. Jrue Holiday:    694.3    (projected team wins: 35)
14. Noah Vonleh:    689.0    (projected team wins: 16)
15. LeBron James:    680.1    (projected team wins: 36)
16. John Collins:    668.4    (projected team wins: 28)
17. Lauri Markkanen:    657.2    (projected team wins: 23)
18. Collin Sexton:    654.1    (projected team wins: 21)
19. Julius Randle:    651.3    (projected team wins: 35)
20. Cedi Osman:    637.4    (projected team wins: 21)
21. Larry Nance:    580.9    (projected team wins: 21)
22. Mikal Bridges:    568.0    (projected team wins: 19)
23. Damyean Dotson:    565.1    (projected team wins: 16)
24. T.J. Warren:    559.1    (projected team wins: 19)
25. Emmanuel Mudiay:    554.2    (projected team wins: 16)
26. Blake Griffin:    552.3    (projected team wins: 42)
27. Josh Jackson:    544.4    (projected team wins: 19)
28. Buddy Hield:    534.2    (projected team wins: 40)
29. Kevin Knox:    521.8    (projected team wins: 16)
30. Andre Drummond:    520.4    (projected team wins: 42)

The top-6 didn't change.

There are currently 5 players who are in the top-30 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list: Bradley Beal (30th and 4th), Karl-Anthony Towns (19th and 5th), Nikola Vucevic (23rd and 9th), Blake Griffin (21st and 26th) and Andre Drummond (27th and 30th).