Comparing NBA MVPs

(Originally posted on Saturday, 23 September 2017; changed on 27 May 2018; updated most recently on 19 November 2022)

This post will be updated after every NBA season.

This is the newest (2018) version of my comparison of the NBA MVPs. My current calculations for the “MVP value” are based on the values of NBA statistics that I calculated here:
How to compare NBA players comprehensively

The MVP value works two ways. On one hand it’s just another verification of the values of NBA statistics (most of the actual NBA MVPs have the highest MVP value too), but on the other hand it also points out some cases that can be considered controversial.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I created my formula for the MVP value inspired by the data found on this site:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/2j2oen/a_look_at_the_seeding_of_past_mvps/

It's clear that I had to take into account also the number of wins achieved by particular teams. Obviously a player from the worst team will never win the MVP award. I made my calculations with the reference point of 60 wins in a season:

MVP value = overall value * (1 + (team wins – 60) / 60)

The formula means that for every 6 team wins above 60 a player from that team gets +10 % of his overall value and -10 % for every 6 team wins below 60.

As you can see I use total overall value, without calculating per-game overall value. Why? Because a player who was injured for some time was automatically less valuable to his team in that season – his team had to play some games without him. He was also less valuable to the league as a whole – he did not attract bigger attendance in the games he missed.

Moreover, if I were to make calculations based on per-game overall value then I would have to use another reference point showing minimum number of games that would make a player “eligible” to win the MVP award. I have no idea what such minimum number of games should be. Total values are objective in their own way (in a particular season).

To find the needed data I used the (awesome) player season finder and the (awesome) team season finder: ATTENTION! The finders are no longer free, so I don't use them anymore.
http://bkref.com/tiny/9SWSZ
http://bkref.com/tiny/29FM3

Obviously an MVP voting is not entirely based on personal statistics and team wins (even though in most cases it would be enough), so I will list top-3 players in each year (and the official MVP if he was outside the top-3).

The most valuable players according to my values of basketball statistics and my MVP value formula are listed below. The players who were the official MVPs are marked by an asterisk. TW means “Team Wins”.

1. Jayson Tatum (2022-23):    2091.0    (team wins: 57)
2. Joel Embiid (2022-23)*:    1990.9    (team wins: 54)
3. Nikola Jokic (2022-23):    1982.0    (team wins: 53)

1. Nikola Jokic (2021-22)*:   1987.4   (TW: 48)
2. Joel Embiid (2021-22):   1834.6   (TW: 51)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo (2021-22):   1817.0   (TW: 51)

1. Nikola Jokic (2020-21)*:   2034.3   (TW: 47)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (2020-21):   1591.6   (TW: 46)
3. Damian Lillard (2020-21):   1517.2   (TW: 42)

For the season 2020-21 (72 games) I had to use a different reference point: 53 games. I simply used a similar proportion (60/82 = 0.732 and 53/72 = 0.736). The shorter season explains why the MVP values are lower.

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019-20)*:   2519.4   (PTW: 67)
2. LeBron James (2019-20):   2358.1   (PTW: 64)
3. James Harden (2019-20):   2199.1   (PTW: 51)

In the season 2019-20 the NBA decided that all individual awards, including the MVP award, would be based only on games played prior to the suspension of the 2019-20 season. It made this season very different from the lockout-shortened seasons, because in the lockout-shortened seasons all teams played the same number of games. For the season 2019-20 it was not true. Because my standard calculations are based on a reference point of team-wins I HAD to calculate the final results for the 2019-20 season as projections, so PTW means “Projected Team Wins”.

1. James Harden (2018-19):   2377.5   (TW: 53)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (2018-19)*:   2241.1   (TW: 60)
3. Kevin Durant (2018-19):   1979.9   (TW: 57)

1. James Harden (2017-18)*:   2390.8   (TW: 65)
2. LeBron James (2017-18):   2049.2   (TW: 50)
3. Kevin Durant (2017-18):   1834.6   (TW: 58)

1. James Harden (2016-17):   2316.4   (TW: 55)
2. Stephen Curry (2016-17):   2299.3   (TW: 67)
3. Russell Westbrook (2016-17)*:   2041.5   (TW: 47)

1. Stephen Curry (2015-16)*:   3039.2   (TW: 73)
2. Draymond Green (2015-16):   2046.9   (TW: 73)
3. Klay Thompson (2015-16):   1933.1   (TW: 73)

1. Stephen Curry (2014-15)*:   2322.9   (TW: 67)
2. James Harden (2014-15):   2059.4   (TW: 56)
3. Chris Paul (2014-15):   1846.7   (TW: 56)

1. Kevin Durant (2013-14)*:   2482.4   (TW: 59)
2. LeBron James (2013-14):   1896.4   (TW: 54)
3. Blake Griffin (2013-14):   1787.4   (TW: 57)

1. LeBron James (2012-13)*:   2475.0   (TW: 66)
2. Kevin Durant (2012-13):   2352.1   (TW: 60)
3. Russell Westbrook (2012-13):   1801.8   (TW: 60)

1. Kevin Durant (2011-12):   1712.6   (TW: 47)
2. LeBron James (2011-12)*:   1639.4   (TW: 46)
3. Russell Westbrook (2011-12):   1299.4   (TW: 47)

For the season 2011-12 I used a different reference point (48 games) because the season was shorter than usual (66 games). I used a similar proportion: 60/82=0.732 and 48/66=0.727. The shorter season explains why the MVP values are much lower.

1. LeBron James (2010-11):   2042.3   (TW: 58)
2. Derrick Rose (2010-11)*:   1931.5   (TW: 62)
3. Kevin Durant (2010-11):   1791.1   (TW: 55)

1. LeBron James (2009-10)*:   2389.2   (TW: 61)
2. Kevin Durant (2009-10):   1883.2   (TW: 50)
3. Dirk Nowitzki (2009-10):   1785.1   (TW: 55)

1. LeBron James (2008-09)*:   2634.0   (TW: 66)
2. Kobe Bryant (2008-09):   2141.7   (TW: 65)
3. Pau Gasol (2008-09):   1899.4   (TW: 65)

1. Kobe Bryant (2007-08)*:   2058.0   (TW: 57)
2. Chris Paul (2007-08):   1924.8   (TW: 56)
3. Amar'e Stoudemire (2007-08):   1874.7   (TW: 55)

1. Dirk Nowitzki (2006-07)*:   2187.2   (TW: 67)
2. Steve Nash (2006-07):   1758.1   (TW: 61)
3. Shawn Marion (2006-07):   1745.9   (TW: 61)

1. Dirk Nowitzki (2005-06):   2130.7   (TW: 60)
2. LeBron James (2005-06):   1903.7   (TW: 50)
3. Shawn Marion (2005-06):   1883.1   (TW: 54)
…
9. Steve Nash (2005-06)*:   1598.3   (TW: 54)

It seems to me that Dirk Nowitzki should have won the MVP award in 2006 (he was third in the voting behind LeBron James), so in total he should have won the award two times.



1. Amar'e Stoudemire (2004-05):   2045.3   (TW: 62)
2. Dirk Nowitzki (2004-05):   2021.5   (TW: 58)
3. Shawn Marion (2004-05):   1936.6   (TW: 62)
…
8. Steve Nash (2004-05)*:   1552.7   (TW: 62)

It seems to me that Amar'e Stoudemire should have won the MVP award in 2005 (he was only 9th in the voting).

1. Kevin Garnett (2003-04)*:   2288.1   (TW: 58)
2. Peja Stojakovic (2003-04):   1742.5   (TW: 55)
3. Jermaine O'Neal (2003-04):   1573.6   (TW: 61)

1. Tim Duncan (2002-03)*:   2135.7   (TW: 60)
2. Dirk Nowitzki (2002-03):   2119.6   (TW: 60)
3. Kevin Garnett (2002-03):   1935.1   (TW: 51)

1. Tim Duncan (2001-02)*:   2196.1   (TW: 58)
2. Dirk Nowitzki (2001-02):   1804.4   (TW: 57)
3. Kobe Bryant (2001-02):   1745.7   (TW: 58)

1. Shaquille O'Neal (2000-01):   1942.6   (TW: 56)
2. Tim Duncan (2000-01):   1826.3   (TW: 58)
3. Dirk Nowitzki (2000-01):   1681.4   (TW: 53)
…
7. Allen Iverson (2000-01)*:   1575.2   (TW: 56)

It seems to me that Shaquille O'Neal should have won the MVP award in 2001 (he was third in the voting behind Tim Duncan), so in total he should have won the award two times.

1. Shaquille O'Neal (1999-00)*:   2673.2   (TW: 67)
2. Karl Malone (1999-00):   1859.9   (TW: 55)
3. Kevin Garnett (1999-00):   1705.1   (TW: 50)

1. Karl Malone (1998-99)*:   1131.2   (TW: 37)
2. Tim Duncan (1998-99):   1126.1   (TW: 37)
3. Shaquille O'Neal (1998-99):   1005.7   (TW: 31)

For the season 1998-99 I used a different reference point (37 games) because the season was shorter than usual (50 games). I used a similar proportion: 60/82=0.732 and 37/50=0.740. The shorter season explains why the MVP values are much lower.

1. Karl Malone (1997-98):   2220.0   (TW: 62)
2. Michael Jordan (1997-98)*:   2000.9   (TW: 62)
3. Tim Duncan (1997-98):   1750.8   (TW: 56)

1. Michael Jordan (1996-97):   2527.7   (TW: 69)
2. Karl Malone (1996-97)*:   2376.5   (TW: 64)
3. Scottie Pippen (1996-97):   2008.1   (TW: 69)

1. Michael Jordan (1995-96)*:   2782.1   (TW: 72)
2. David Robinson (1995-96):   2325.0   (TW: 59)
3. Karl Malone (1995-96):   1937.3   (TW: 55)

Please notice that the MVP value of Michael Jordan from the season 1995-1996 was the highest until the season 2015-16 when Stephen (Stephenomen) Curry beat it with his phenomenal 3-point shooting on a team that won 73 games . But no matter what, Michael Jordan was faaar above any other player just because of one thing: reverse layups! He could regularly score in situations where hardly any other player would ever succeed.





1. David Robinson (1994-95)*:   2478.9   (TW: 62)
2. Karl Malone (1994-95):   2183.4   (TW: 60)
3. Shaquille O'Neal (1994-95):   2104.0   (TW: 57)

1. David Robinson (1993-94):   2305.5   (TW: 55)
2. Hakeem Olajuwon (1993-94)*:   2278.4   (TW: 58)
3. Shaquille O'Neal (1993-94):   2020.7   (TW: 50)

1. Hakeem Olajuwon (1992-93):   2308.7   (TW: 55)
2. Michael Jordan (1992-93):   2260.1   (TW: 57)
3. Charles Barkley (1992-93)*:   2228.7   (TW: 62)

1. Michael Jordan (1991-92)*:   2613.0   (TW: 67)
2. Scottie Pippen (1991-92):   2127.1   (TW: 67)
3. Karl Malone (1991-92):   2010.7   (TW: 55)

1. Michael Jordan (1990-91)*:   2571.6   (TW: 61)
2. David Robinson (1990-91):   2234.5   (TW: 55)
3. Karl Malone (1990-91):   2102.6   (TW: 54)

1. Michael Jordan (1989-90):   2473.1   (TW: 55)
2. Magic Johnson (1989-90)*:   2311.0   (TW: 63)
3. Karl Malone (1989-90):   2176.5   (TW: 55)

1. Michael Jordan (1988-89):   2151.9   (TW: 47)
2. Magic Johnson (1988-89)*:   2142.6   (TW: 57)
3. Karl Malone (1988-89):   1839.9   (TW: 51)

1. Michael Jordan (1987-88)*:   2279.5   (TW: 50)
2. Larry Bird (1987-88):   2275.0   (TW: 57)
3. Clyde Drexler (1987-88):   1857.5   (TW: 53)

1. Magic Johnson (1986-87)*:   2449.9   (TW: 65)
2. Larry Bird (1986-87):   2278.6   (TW: 59)
3. Kevin McHale (1986-87):   2089.7   (TW: 59)

1. Larry Bird (1985-86)*:   2600.8   (TW: 67)
2. Magic Johnson (1985-86):   1835.2   (TW: 62)
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1985-86):   1820.2   (TW: 62)

1. Larry Bird (1984-85)*:   2611.1   (TW: 63)
2. Magic Johnson (1984-85):   1957.1   (TW: 62)
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1984-85):   1883.4   (TW: 62)

1. Larry Bird (1983-84)*:   2172.2   (TW: 62)
2. Robert Parish (1983-84):   1692.0   (TW: 62)
3. Adrian Dantley (1983-84):   1575.0   (TW: 45)

1. Moses Malone (1982-83)*:   2216.7   (TW: 65)
2. Larry Bird (1982-83):   1945.2   (TW: 56)
3. Magic Johnson (1982-83):   1821.4   (TW: 58)

1. Larry Bird (1981-82):   2053.1   (TW: 63)
2. Julius Erving (1981-82):   1918.3   (TW: 58)
3. Magic Johnson (1981-82):   1848.5   (TW: 57)
4. Moses Malone (1981-82)*:   1842.5   (TW: 46)

1. Julius Erving (1980-81)*:   2107.7   (TW: 62)
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1980-81):   1993.4   (TW: 54)
3. Larry Bird (1980-81):   1966.4   (TW: 62)

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1979-80)*:   2354.2   (TW: 60)
2. Julius Erving (1979-80):   1965.1   (TW: 59)
3. Larry Bird (1979-80):   1876.0   (TW: 61)

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1978-79):   1875.5   (TW: 47)
2. Moses Malone (1978-79)*:   1767.9   (TW: 47)
3. Elvin Hayes (1978-79):   1611.5   (TW: 54)

1. George Gervin (1977-78):   1674.6   (TW: 52)
2. David Thompson (1977-78):   1507.7   (TW: 48)
3. Bob McAdoo (1977-78):   1488.4   (TW: 43)
…
9. Bill Walton (1977-78)*:   1348.6   (TW: 58)

The season 1977-78 was a unique one. Bill Walton had played very well until he suffered a season-ending injury. Most importantly his team's record was 48-10 with him and 10-14 without him. His team's overall record (58-24) was still the best in the league and the next team's record was 55-27. It can be projected that Walton's team would have won 68 games if he had stayed healthy and Walton's MVP value would be 2235.4 then – much bigger than anyone else's. Such numbers were decisive, but George Gervin was a close second in the voting. As I wrote before, total values are objective in their own way (in a particular season), but this case was an exception.

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1976-77)*:   2439.4   (TW: 53)
2. Elvin Hayes (1976-77):   1805.1   (TW: 48)
3. Julius Erving (1976-77):   1710.4   (TW: 50)

In the season 1976-77 there were no stats for individual turnovers, so the values of individual players in that season were not lowered because of their turnovers. It doesn't matter for that particular season, but the MVP values from that season are overstated when compared to following seasons.