NBA 2022 MVP race – part 2

(Originally posted on 30 January 2022)

Part 2 ends with games played on 29 January 2022.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2021-22 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

Because of the pandemic some players have already missed some games due to safety protocols without any fault of their own. It means that the results are/will be skewed and there's nothing I can do about it. Well, some injuries happen also without any fault of the players and it also influences the results. We have to live with it.

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2022 MVP race list is this:

1. Stephen Curry:    1957.8    (projected team wins: 61)
2. Chris Paul:    1877.3    (projected team wins: 67)
3. Nikola Jokic:    1850.7    (projected team wins: 46)
4. Devin Booker:    1759.5    (projected team wins: 67)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    1663.7    (projected team wins: 50)
6. Joel Embiid:    1597.5    (projected team wins: 50)
7. DeMar DeRozan:    1528.7    (projected team wins: 51)
8. James Harden:    1506.6    (projected team wins: 49)
9. Kevin Durant:    1447.4    (projected team wins: 49)
10. Ja Morant:    1395.0    (projected team wins: 55)
11. Zach LaVine:    1360.7    (projected team wins: 51)
12. Rudy Gobert:    1333.5    (projected team wins: 49)
13. Andrew Wiggins:    1298.3    (projected team wins: 61)
14. Jayson Tatum:    1293.1    (projected team wins: 42)
15. Miles Bridges:    1291.6    (projected team wins: 46)
16. Trae Young:    1281.1    (projected team wins: 39)
17. Mikal Bridges:    1248.5    (projected team wins: 67)
18. Donovan Mitchell:    1216.3    (projected team wins: 49)
19. Nikola Vucevic:    1214.9    (projected team wins: 51)
20. Desmond Bane:    1207.6    (projected team wins: 55)

Stephen Curry is still the leader of the race. Chris Paul and Devin Booker complement each other perfectly. Nikola Jokic is again awesome, considering especially the number of big injuries on his team. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid are also great, but their MVP values are a little too low for them to be true contenders.

It's worth to mention that there are 3 surprising names on the list: Miles Bridges, Mikal Bridges and Desmond Bane. Respect!


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2022 MFP list is this:

1. Christian Wood:    924.8    (projected team wins: 23)
2. Franz Wagner:    920.2    (projected team wins: 16)
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    917.5    (projected team wins: 24)
4. Domantas Sabonis:    912.3    (projected team wins: 29)
5. Dejounte Murray:    847.1    (projected team wins: 31)
6. Wendell Carter Jr.:    840.8    (projected team wins: 16)
7. Saddiq Bey:    828.1    (projected team wins: 19)
8. Cole Anthony:    779.1    (projected team wins: 16)
9. Jonas Valanciunas:    773.9    (projected team wins: 30)
10. Tyrese Haliburton:    712.2    (projected team wins: 29)
11. Cade Cunningham:    697.2    (projected team wins: 19)
12. Trae Young:    689.8    (projected team wins: 39)
13. Mo Bamba:    685.1    (projected team wins: 16)
14. Jae'Sean Tate:    673.8    (projected team wins: 23)
15. Harrison Barnes:    649.3    (projected team wins: 29)
16. Luguentz Dort:    639.8    (projected team wins: 24)
17. De'Aaron Fox:    635.7    (projected team wins: 29)
18. LeBron James:    624.2    (projected team wins: 39)
19. Brandon Ingram:    618.4    (projected team wins: 30)
20. Josh Giddey:    617.6    (projected team wins: 24)

Currently there is only 1 player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list – Trae Young (16th and 12th). Interestingly LeBron James is only on the MFP list while Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis aren't on either list.