NBA 2024 MVP race – part 1

(Originally posted on Tuesday 26 December 2023)

Part 1 ends with games played on 23 December 2023.

All the statistical data I used I found on this site:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

I described my way of calculating the MVP and the MFP values in these posts:
Comparing NBA MVPs
Most frustrated NBA players

Before the 2023-24 season is over I have to make mathematical projections of the MVP and the MFP values. The assumption behind the projections is that every player and every team will play exactly the same way they have been playing so far (the numbers of projected team wins are rounded to whole numbers).

With the assumptions described above, the current NBA 2024 MVP race list is this:

1. Joel Embiid:    2701.7    (projected team wins: 59)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo:    2537.9    (projected team wins: 62)
3. Nikola Jokic:    2455.1    (projected team wins: 56)
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:    2338.5    (projected team wins: 55)
5. Jayson Tatum:    2217.6    (projected team wins: 64)
6. Damian Lillard:    2089.5    (projected team wins: 62)
7. Tyrese Maxey:    2089.1    (projected team wins: 59)
8. Luka Doncic:    2078.1    (projected team wins: 48)
9. Karl-Anthony Towns:    1990.0    (projected team wins: 64)
10. Anthony Edwards:    1831.1    (projected team wins: 64)
11. Domantas Sabonis:    1717.3    (projected team wins: 50)
12. Jaylen Brown:    1715.4    (projected team wins: 64)
13. Rudy Gobert:    1647.8    (projected team wins: 64)
14. Anthony Davis:    1621.0    (projected team wins: 44)
15. Chet Holmgren:    1616.1    (projected team wins: 55)
16. Derrick White:    1571.0    (projected team wins: 64)
17. Jalen Brunson:    1561.8    (projected team wins: 47)
18. Kawhi Leonard:    1543.1    (projected team wins: 48)
19. LeBron James:    1528.9    (projected team wins: 44)
20. De'Aaron Fox:    1482.0    (projected team wins: 50)

Early results are always too optimistic, but very interesting nevertheless. To me the most notable things are that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 4th and Tyrese Maxey is 7th.


With the same assumptions (described above) the current NBA 2024 MFP list is this:

1. Cade Cunningham:    1435.2    (projected team wins: 6)
2. Kyle Kuzma:    1291.2    (projected team wins: 15)
3. Victor Wembanyama:    1229.3    (projected team wins: 12)
4. Keldon Johnson:    1142.3    (projected team wins: 12)
5. Desmond Bane:    1057.4    (projected team wins: 26)
6. Scottie Barnes:    989.8    (projected team wins: 31)
7. Tyus Jones:    967.4    (projected team wins: 15)
8. Zach Collins:    946.7    (projected team wins: 12)
9. Trae Young:    935.6    (projected team wins: 34)
10. Ausar Thompson:    926.0    (projected team wins: 6)
11. Jaren Jackson Jr.:    914.8    (projected team wins: 26)
12. Daniel Gafford:    890.2    (projected team wins: 15)
13. Devin Vassell:    885.9    (projected team wins: 12)
14. Jerami Grant:    874.5    (projected team wins: 21)
15. Deni Avdija:    867.7    (projected team wins: 15)
16. Isaiah Stewart:    853.4    (projected team wins: 6)
17. Pascal Siakam:    827.1    (projected team wins: 31)
18. Jordan Poole:    822.1    (projected team wins: 15)
19. Terry Rozier:    777.0    (projected team wins: 21)
20. Jeremy Sochan:    771.2    (projected team wins: 12)

Victor Wembanyama is 3rd on the MFP list, mostly because his team won only 4 games out of 28 played so far. It doesn't speak well about Gregg Popovich at all (I am pretty sure that he also has a big influence on the front office of his team, so he's responsible for the “weak team” anyway). As far as pure coaching is concerned, for comparison, Ime Udoka coached his team to 15 wins in 27 games, which is a knock-out against Popovich.

There is not a single player in the top-20 both on the MVP list and on the MFP list.